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TMFHelical (98.71)

My (non CAPS) 2007 In review - Part3

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January 14, 2008 – Comments (3)

Lets try to wrap this up and get back to sporadic healthcare biotech stuff.

So far I've commented on my IRA, but there are other accounts such as my Roth, taxable, my wife's accounts, and our 529's making up the investment assets (excluding hard assets like home and stuff like that).  My other accounts are not strictly allocated (the IRA is more guided than strict - but whatever). 

My Roth is only 5% of these assets - but it had an IRR in 2007 of ~46%. The taxable account (>6% of assets) had an IRR of just under 43%.  Very nice, but driven by just a few holdings.  In the Roth - the Webex buyout drove the account early in the year, then SIAL, OXPS, OYOG brought it home.  Syneron (ELOS) was a drag on it.  The taxable account was driven by Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), but also PID and EPD helped out.  Some of my taxable account is invested by my kids (6,8).  They own CROX, DIS, MVL, HAS, DISCA, and WWY (my daughter wisely unloaded her BBW earlier this year as other more personalized toys hit the market).  I like having them interested in investing at this early age.

My wife's Roth and taxable account were both down a couple percent.  But her IRA (16% of assets) had an IRR of 55% - (wow).  She had a too large position (IMO) in Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) which really paid off in 2007, but is hurting her so far in 2008 (it's early).

So any lesson from these small super performing concentrated accounts? - NO.  This is fine for these smaller accounts, but these accounts are too concentrated to make for a solid overall investing strategy - despite the fact that they did so well this past year.  Worst thing I could do would be to let them get me overconfident and take on excessive risk. 

One item of interest though, the 529 plans, which are programmed investments much like lifestyle funds, both had solid years.  They returned ~ 10% with their blended funds strategy.  No one should be upset with a 10% IRR in 2007, in fact this year should have convinced many of the power of an asset allocation / indexing strategy.  Those that invest that way probably saw 2007 as a pretty decent year.

Over all accounts (everything tracked via Quicken), we had an IRR in 2007 for invested assets of 13.2%.  No complaints about that.  Going back to 1998 - I have an annualized IRR of ~11% (also not too bad).  [My quicken data could go back further - to 92, but used to be on a MAC]

We shall see how 2008 turns out.

Zz

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 14, 2008 at 10:41 PM, dwot (52.34) wrote:

I think when I annualized mine going back I estimated something like yours, but mine went something like -33%, +5%, +5%, +5%, +5%, +5%, +5%, +5%, 177%, 10%...

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#2) On January 16, 2008 at 5:05 PM, TMFSarahGen (99.74) wrote:

ok HelicalZz, my forecast for first quarter 2008?  Your CAPS rating rockets up by hundreds of points.  Your specialties, interests and knowledge are right where the market is actually good right now.  I'll be stalking you more closely again starting now.  Nice call on MMSI - what a mysterious company - reports earnings, and it doesn't even show on Yahoo Finance - you have to track it down on the SEC page. 

It's been awhile since I looked through every single one of your CAPS picks.  I'm about to do that again tonight. :)  Thanks for all your work, including writing all those pitches!

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#3) On January 17, 2008 at 9:10 AM, TMFHelical (98.71) wrote:

TMFSarahGen

 

It's been a while since I looked through my picks as well.  And I should do an ETF teardown on HealthShares enabling technologies ETf - HHV.

MMSI was a lucky guess, I still haven't put much research into the company.  Ironically I think my CAPS score is too high and making me pick shy.  Gotta get over that, I'm not playing to win but to make my mistakes here rather than in my real port.

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