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EScroogeJr (< 20)

My personal coffee inflation



April 17, 2008 – Comments (7)

I used to buy a morning cup of coffee in one of the four shops in my neighbourhood. (There are many more, no doubt, but I am not doing an extensive research here, just relating my personal experience with inflation) Two of them were charging 50 cents, one was charging 60, and one - 75. About a month ago,  the 75 cent guy began charging 85 cents, the 60 cent coffee went up to 75 cents, and one of the 50 cent shops also hiked the price to 75 cents (it's also making lousy coffee, so I'm no longer buying from them). The fourth shop was still selling coffee for 50 cents last time I checked. In the more expensive category, there is a gas station nearby where $1.50 would buy you a 20 oz cup of really good coffee that came with a free doughnut. Their price hasn't changed, but the free doughnut is now gone. Lacking this incentive to go for 20 oz, you will do well to consider downsizing to a $1.29 12-oz cup. Farther away from our place, the cafe that served a 12 oz cup of exellent $1.60 coffee recently raised the price to $1.80. As you all know, Starbucks hiked its prices about half a year earlier...

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 17, 2008 at 2:30 AM, DemonDoug (30.70) wrote:

ot: expecting the markets to rally hard tomorrow after ibm's good earnings.  Maybe even through friday.  I think this is the perfect bull trap for bears to get good value in going short (utilize ultrashorts and short etfs).

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#2) On April 17, 2008 at 2:53 AM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

Yeah, I know. Will probably fix some profits tomorrow. Not in housing, though: I mean to ride my TOL to 40.

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#3) On April 17, 2008 at 8:33 AM, mandrake66 (51.72) wrote:

I don't follow the homebuilders very closely. What is it about TOL that you think will drive it to $40 in the near term?

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#4) On April 17, 2008 at 9:01 AM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

Not in the near term. It should take another 1.5-2 years. I will just hold the shares from the trough to the peak of the cycle.

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#5) On April 17, 2008 at 9:56 AM, mandrake66 (51.72) wrote:

Got it, thanks. I'm pretty pessimistic about homebuilders and the housing situation, but it would actually surprise me if it took a full 1.5-2 years for TOL to go back to 40. It could get there within a month. I was just wondering if there were some sane reason for it to do so.

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#6) On April 17, 2008 at 10:38 AM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:

I would want zero exposures to financials and the homebuilders here.... we've seen nothing of a trough yet.  Even as cheap as my once-beloved Brookfield Homes (BHS) looks at these levels, I'm remaining disciplined to await the true trough

My suggestion... buy assets like gold and silver, when gold is over $1,600, we might start seeing the bottom for the homebuilders.

Think of it this way, with so many existing homes for sale at prices that are going to be declining steadily for some time to come, the market for the builders has extreme pressure on it just from that inventory.

Why wait 2 years for something to start going up when there are so many opportunities for terrific gains right now?

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#7) On April 17, 2008 at 2:36 PM, FourthAxis (< 20) wrote:

$0.75 HOLY S%&T  I must be paying an ocean tax again.

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