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APJ4RealHoldings (24.96)

My Real Life LongShort Portfolio, Current Leverage, & ALL holdings last week & today (in comments)

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March 09, 2010 – Comments (21) | RELATED TICKERS: AMZN , FAX , GMCR

NOTE THIS IS AS OF LAST WEEK.  WEEKEND & TODAY'S UPDATE IS IN COMMENT SECTION OF THIS BLOG POST.

Since my last performance update post (November 10, 2009), the market has been up roughly 3%.

Fortunately my portfolio kept pace (finally) to also ~3%.

After ending 2009 lagging bad, January was a quite a big up month for my portfolio to start 2010 & February generally flat. My 1yr performance comparison had shown to beat the S&P 500 until the 2nd half of February in which the S&P 500 started showing 1yr performance above 45-50% (due to low levels prior year).

Quick reminder, I indicate my top 3 ratable long & top 3 short holdings with 'top pick' designation on CAPS.

Here's my performance per TradeKing

5 Day      0.79%
15 Day     0.66%
1 Month     2.39%
3 Month     6.60%
6 Month     -0.10%
1 Year     44.40%
As of:     03/04/10

So 1yr 3/4/09-3/4/2010 performance of my portfolio was +44.4% gain vs S&P 500 +57.5% gain.
Man, if I would have went all in on S&P 500 Index last year & had the guts to hold til today...wow. IF... =)

After April 2009, my portfolio has been for the most part been market neutral/market short.  So now I will be also comparing to recently best performing long-short style funds (from list: DIAMX, PBP, COAGX, CVSIX, BPLEX, BWV):
BPLEX +117%
BWV +43%
DIAMX +39%

Looks like I beat 2 of the 3, but that BPLEX has shown monster performance!

Reminder to self & others: the markets run the risk of moving higher for years despite what fundamentals may indicate.

Going forward, I will try to stay within the 0-25%net short range just to manage (juggle) my risk.

 

All my holdings as of today, 3/4/10:

*Note, certain ETFs & PUT options were adjusted accordingly denoted with a * below (ie a long position on a short ETF was multiplied by -1, a position on a leveraged ETF was multiplied accordingly- ie 1% on a 3x leveraged ETF was changed to a ~3% holding, PUT options nominal value was multipled by -3)

ticker| costbase| %ofportf  Unrealized gain/(loss)                                         
FAX     $5.22       10.1%     23.67%
ESEA     $4.96     7.8%     -(20.2%)
MBFI     $18.67     5.2%     10.92%
PGNX     $5.99     5.1%     -(23.2%)
SWHC     $4.58     4.0%     4.53%
PFBI     $5.80      4.0%     27.28%
TIMNF     $1.36     4.0%     -(11.7%)
FFBC     $12.97     3.9%     37.29%
DNN     $1.47       3.7%     -(5.0%)
ZAGG     $3.31     3.4%     -(19.0%)
WNR     $4.80     3.1%     4.69%
PCY     $26.82     3.1%     -(3.5%)
AAXJ     $52.27     2.9%     2.80%
TRID     $1.53     2.8%     -(2.5%)
RTIX     $3.44     2.7%     13.00%
TNDM     $15.77     2.7%     8.00%
CHK     $24.69     2.6%     6.06%
VRAD     $10.21     2.5%     -(0.7%)
PALM     $6.68     2.4%     -(10.8%)
ATVI     $10.10     2.2%     9.25%
GXDX     $35.45     2.2%     -(9.5%)
SYMX     $1.24     2.0%     -(14.4%)
ORPB     $4.28     1.7%     -(15.9%)
FLTWQ     $0.13     0.0%     -(98.4%)
TNA*     $25.55     -(10.6%)     -(90.0%)
AMZN     $82.49    -(10.4%)     -(55.8%)
GMCR     $72.57   -(8.2%)     -(20.3%)
BCS     $16.38     -(6.3%)     -(22.3%)
PKQ Put*  $0.31  -(6.2%)     -(2.8%)
CVC     $15.03     -(6.0%)     -(60.2%)
PCLN     $170.60   -(5.8%)     -(36.6%)
ZGM Put*   $4.43  -(5.8%)     -(30.0%)
OSK     $30.85     -(5.2%)     -(19.8%)
TYH*   $130.76     -(5.0%)     -(8.4%)
PQW Put* $0.32    -(4.9%)     -(2.9%)
VNO     $64.27     -(3.8%)     -(4.4%)
IBM     $115.89     -(3.6%)     -(9.3%)
APSA     $7.95     -(3.2%)     -(17.9%)
SWN     $27.45     -(3.2%)     -(48.5%)
ORCL     $14.46     -(2.7%)     -(71.3%)
IVAN     $3.21     -(2.2%)     -(7.3%)
MSG     $12.37     -(1.2%)     -(61.4%)
IOC     $73.86     -(1.0%)     14.18%                                  

43 positions                    sum=(11.1%) net exposure (short) 

Top 3 Long Holdings & Top 3 Short Holdings in bold above.                                          

LEVERAGE STATS                                                     
longs to accounts value     84.2% (down from 86.9% on 11/10/2009)                                                   
shorts to accounts value     (95.3%)  (down from (102.3%))                                                
Net:     (11.2%)short. Agrees with above sum (exposure down from ~(15.3%) 11/10)                             

Multiplying -0.50 to Short Amt for margin rqrmt: 48% collateral needed for shorts (down from from 51%)    

Total Securities (Longs+Shorts collateral rqrd) to Acct Value:    1.26 (down from 1.38)                                              
Which means I'm 26% leveraged                                                     
Additional buying power my broker's allowing:                                                      
"Stock Buying Power" - can buy    3%    more stock to acct value (up from 0.4%)                               

"Option Buying Power" - can buy    1%    more options to acct value (up from 0.1%)                                                                                   

Note: Leverage = INSANE RISK!

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 09, 2010 at 7:35 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

As of Sunday 3/7/2010

5 Day      -0.67%
15 Day     -0.80%
1 Month     1.10%
3 Month     4.87%
6 Month     -1.55%
1 Year     45.32%
As of:     03/06/10

from 3/9/09 to 3/5/10
S&P 500 1 YEAR +66.6%
My portfolio 1yr +45.32%

Competing top Long-Short funds (best index to compare myself to)
BPLEX +133%
BWV +50%
DIAMX +44%

Best 1 of 3 of the these long short funds.  In this time period comparison.

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#2) On March 09, 2010 at 8:12 PM, SockMarket (97.55) wrote:

if your cost basis on SWN is $27 shouldn't you be up on the order of 60%?

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#3) On March 09, 2010 at 8:32 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

UPDATE THROUGH TODAY

(closed out IBM, GXDX since 3/4)


Since my last performance update post (March 4, 2010), the market has been up roughly +1.6%.

My portfolio went nearly opposite being down (1)%.

Here's my performance per TradeKing

5 Day      -1.70%
15 Day     -0.96%
1 Month     0.30%
3 Month     2.03%
6 Month     -1.02%
1 Year     46.80%
As of:     03/09/10

So 1yr 3/10/09-3/9/2010 performance of my portfolio was +46.8% gain vs S&P 500 +68.5% gain.

After April 2009, my portfolio has been for the most part been market neutral/market short.  So now I will be also comparing to recently best performing long-short style funds (from list: DIAMX, PBP, COAGX, CVSIX, BPLEX, BWV):
BPLEX +138%
BWV +50%
DIAMX +44%

Looks like I beat 1 of the 3, hmmmm.

All my holdings as of today, 3/9/10:

*Note, certain ETFs & PUT options were adjusted accordingly denoted with a * below (ie a long position on a short ETF was multiplied by -1, a position on a leveraged ETF was multiplied accordingly- ie 1% on a 3x leveraged ETF was changed to a ~3% holding, PUT options nominal value was multipled by -3)

                                         
ticker|costbase| %of portfl unrealiz.gain/loss
FAX    $5.22        10.3%        25.4
ESEA    $4.96        7.9%        -20.11
MBFI    $18.67        5.4%        13.97
PGNX    $5.99        5.3%        -21.32
PFBI    $5.80        4.4%        36.09
ZAGG    $3.31        4.1%        -3.31
FFBC    $12.97        4.0%        39.98
SWHC    $4.58        4.0%        2.57
TIMNF    $1.36        3.9%        -12.88
DNN    $1.47        3.8%        -3.66
PCY    $26.82        3.1%        -2.95
TRID    $1.53        3.0%        5.35
AAXJ    $52.27        3.0%        6.46
WNR    $4.80        3.0%        -2.39
RTIX    $3.44        2.9%        19.68
TNDM    $15.77        2.8%        12.5
CHK    $24.69        2.6%        4.07
VRAD    $10.21        2.5%        -2.66
PALM    $6.68        2.3%        -14.8
ATVI    $10.10        2.3%        10.04
SYMX    $1.24        1.9%        -19.24
ORPB    $4.28        1.7%        -15.95
FLTWQ    $0.13        0.0%        -98.16
TNA    $25.55        -11.6%        -104.98
AMZN    $82.49        -10.6%        -56.17
GMCR    $72.57        -8.6%        -25.69
BCS    $16.38        -6.6%        -26.84
PKQ Put    $0.31        -6.2%        -2.83
CVC    $15.03        -6.1%        -60.23
PCLN    $170.60        -6.0%        -39.7
OSK    $30.85        -5.6%        -26.78
TYH    $130.76        -5.3%        -14.71
PQW Put    $0.32        -5.0%        -2.95
ZGM Put    $4.43        -4.3%        -49.22
VNO    $64.27        -4.1%        -11.15
SWN    $27.45        -3.5%        -59.88
APSA    $7.95        -3.2%        -16.91
ORCL    $14.46        -2.7%        -72.08
IVAN    $3.21        -2.2%        -7.01
MSG    $12.37        -1.2%        -56.65
IOC    $73.86        -1.1%        9.29
41 positions  sum=(9.5%) net exposure (short) 

Top 3 Long Holdings & Top 3 Short Holdings in bold above.                                          

LEVERAGE STATS                                                     
longs to accounts value     84.2% (down from 86.9% on 3/4/2010)                                                   
shorts to accounts value     (93.7%)  (down from (102.3%))                                                
Net:     (9.5%)short. Agrees with above sum (exposure down from ~(11.1%) 3/4)                             

Multiplying -0.50 to Short Amt for margin rqrmt: 47% collateral needed for shorts (down from 51%)    

Total Securities (Longs+Shorts collateral rqrd) to Acct Value:    1.26 (same as before at 26%)                                              
Which means I'm 26% leveraged (same as before at 26%)                                                     
Additional buying power my broker's allowing:                                                      
"Stock Buying Power" - can buy 0.0% more stock to acct value (down from 3%) 
"Option Buying Power" - can buy 0.0% more options to acct value (down from 1%)                                                                                   

Buying power dried up yet less leveraged.  Likely due to a shift in more value on the higher margin requiring positions.
 

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#4) On March 09, 2010 at 8:33 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

danielthebear

that is a short position on SWN! =)

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#5) On March 09, 2010 at 8:33 PM, GrowthnValue (< 20) wrote:

APJ,

Thanks for sharing your real life holdings and returns.  I enjoy following your picks.

 

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#6) On March 09, 2010 at 8:35 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

any positions with a negative - on % of portfolio column means a short position against the underlying (puts i adjusted as negative since they are a bearish call on a security)

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#7) On March 09, 2010 at 8:38 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

GrowthnValue

Thanks for following, much appreciated. 

I post this here mainly for organization and keeping track of myself periodically (to see how horribly leveraged i am, the too many positions i hold, and how badly i may be lagging vs funds) - sometimes it works as a self regulating mechanism for me when doing this simple portfolio analysis

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#8) On March 09, 2010 at 8:42 PM, topsecret09 (78.42) wrote:

Thanks APJ4 for posting a real portfolio. Mine Is also posted here on the CAPS ,and I update It every week....  I think this Is great Info for fools,especially those new to the game.....  (*Posted under topsecret10)....   TS

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#9) On March 09, 2010 at 8:44 PM, topsecret09 (78.42) wrote:

 We have a grand total of (ONE) stock In common...  LOL!!!    Activision (ATVI).......     TS

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#10) On March 09, 2010 at 9:07 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

topsecret09

LOL, isnt that interesting? after all those positions!

Thanks for checking out my blog and also commenting, much appreciated. 

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#11) On March 10, 2010 at 6:24 PM, GrowthnValue (< 20) wrote:

APJ,

Why are you/have you been net short?  Do you think that the market has been fundamentally overvalued since April or do you rely on some type of technical analysis?  Or is it simply that you have found more stocks you would like to short than buy on the long side?  I am just curious as to what your strategy is.

In real life, I have some long and some short positions, but remain substantially net long.

Also, what do you see as a good benchmark for your strategy?  I see that you are using the S&P 500.  If I had a relatively flat portfolio, I think I would be looking for low volatility and relatively consistent positive yearly returns.  Report this comment
#12) On March 10, 2010 at 11:04 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

GrowthnValue,

I have been net short primarily due to my belief that total aggregate credit (money/liquidity) provided to businesses & consumers has peaked & will not reach prior levels for some time. 

See my thoughts on this post: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=338962&t=01001353231915820646

I do believe there will be plenty of credit expansion in the Asia Pacific (especially the areas excluding Japan, China, Australia).  But overall, even with the expansion of credit in this region, the worldwide aggregate credit contraction will override this. 

Since 2008, I always believed the best benchmark is put myself against a diversified asset allocation strategy:

25% S&P500

25% emerging mkt

25% bonds

25% commodity

But it appears to be harder to practice what you preach so to speak since I have still yet to compare my portfolio performance to this standard...one day. 

Additionally, these "diverse" asset classes have been indicating historically, the highest levels of correllations amongst each other these past 5-7 years.  Which may go back to my credit expansion arguement.

Instead, I have been comparing my returns against the S&P 500 index. 

Most recently, as of this blog update, I have incorporated comparing myself to better performing long-short funds as well, which makes wayyy better sense in comparing my results since April 2009. 

It appears my portfolio does much better during periods of volatility spikes, so in effect, my portfolio has high beta towards rising volatility. 

I see a problem with this, as volatility for the most part usually remains flat to decreasing for extended periods of time & if there are drops in the market, volatility spikes for a short period of time. ----> Therefore, it would be a good idea, for my portfolio, to short the VXX fund.  I am waiting for a 10-15% spike in this before I start a short position (I may be waiting for a long time)

 

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#13) On March 17, 2010 at 1:34 PM, jed71 (31.18) wrote:

APJ4RealHoldings

Quick question... I have been looking at TIMNF for the past few days and noticed you have it listed in your portfolio. It has taken a bath today - down ~16%. You have any good insight into this issue? Was thinking of picking up a few shares as a part of the "high risk" small caps section of my portfolio...

TIA

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#14) On March 17, 2010 at 6:21 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

jed71,

I have roughly 15% of my portfolio allocated to high risk long/shorts that simply follow certain caps players in search of quick profit.  TIMNF is one of those holdings of which I followed based on a pick on BravoBevo's CAPs picks.  I generally need more long exposure to offset my shorts and this pick seemed like it might work for my purposes since it was favored by CAPs community.  Not much due diligence done.

You can access financial statements & compare across quarters and years to see what they've done on an aggregate basis:

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/incomeStatement?stmtType=BAL&perType=ANN&symbol=TIMNF.PK

click above to see.

Currently valued at roughly $150million.  I would see this as a risky pick. 

I can see an absolute bottom of this company to be roughly $50million. And I can see this company be valued potentially at $250million.  

I'm probably not going to hold on if TIMNF spikes up 30% from todays current levels, as that would be the lil bit upside/profit that I desire.

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#15) On July 20, 2010 at 4:50 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

I've been close to pure market neutral the past month.

Here are my latest performance stats on my portfolio up to 7/19/2010:

5 Day
  1.03% 15 Day  
-2.75% 1 Month  
-4.45% 3 Month  
-1.23% 6 Month  
-2.58% 1 Year
  3.17% As of: 07/20/10

I set in my 2009 highs last year around the july time, so I am glad to see I'm not too far off from last year's highs. 

However, in the past 1 year market S&P 500 has moved up 14%, far exceeding my returns in that same period. 

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#16) On August 09, 2010 at 2:28 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

Recently went from neutral to 5-10% net short.

Latest portfolio stats up to 8/6/10:

5 Day -0.63%
15 Day  -0.44%
1 Month -2.30%
3 Month -5.12%
6 Month  -2.67%
1 Year -2.62%
As of:     08/07/10

 

S&P has returned 11.5% in that same 1 year time.

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#17) On August 24, 2010 at 2:49 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

my portfolio stats up thru 8/23:

5 Day  -2.09%
15 Day   -5.80%
1 Month     -6.81%
3 Month   -10.92%
6 Month   -10.35%
1 Year  -10.33%
As of:     08/24/10

S&P 500 has returned about 3% in that same 1 year time. 

 

I'm being decimated.  Also I am roughly 20% off (below) my portfolio high set in July 2009. 

Versus S&P 500 is 13% below its recent high which was 1212 set back on April 2010. 

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#18) On August 27, 2010 at 4:14 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

my portfolio stats up thru 8/26:

5 Day      
         -0.81%
15 Day     
         -6.32%
1 Month     
         -7.52%
3 Month     
         -10.94%
6 Month     
 
        -9.53%
1 Year     
         -11.11%
As of:     08/27/10

 

S&P 500 has returned about 3% in that same 1 year time. 


 

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#19) On September 07, 2010 at 3:40 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

5 Day      
 -2.50%
15 Day     
    -4.67%
1 Month     
    -7.61%
3 Month     
    -12.19%
6 Month     
 -11.62%
1 Year     
 -13.87%
As of:     09/04/10

 

S&P 500 has returned about 8% in that same 1 year time

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#20) On September 29, 2010 at 3:21 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (24.96) wrote:

5 Day     
        -1.87%
15 Day    
        -5.34%
1 Month    
        -9.82%
3 Month    
        -17.64%
6 Month    
        -15.78%
1 Year     
        -17.30%
As of:     09/21/10

 

 S&P 500 has returned about 8% in that same 1 year time

(I am down roughly 21% from my July 2009 portfolio peak)

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#21) On December 11, 2010 at 8:40 PM, GrowthnValue (< 20) wrote:

APJ,

I was just checking int to see how things were going.  I imagine that a few of your short positions with some of the irrational high fliers is dragging down your port.  I appreciate that you post your real life holdings.  I think that it makes it a much more interesting/useful to follow.

GnV

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