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portefeuille (99.67)

NBI

Recs

6

March 27, 2010 – Comments (38)

NASDAQ Biotech Index.



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I am pretty confident it will make a new all-time high in the not so distant future.

I would say around p = 0.1 for next all-time high in 2010, p = 0.2 for 2011, p = 0.15 for 2012, p = 0.1 for 2013 and p = 0.45 for later than 2013 or never ...

38 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 27, 2010 at 10:13 PM, topsecret09 (39.96) wrote:

   thanks port :)  

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#2) On March 27, 2010 at 10:19 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

the components (from here).

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. ACOR
Adolor Corporation
ADLR
Affymetrix, Inc.
AFFX
Akorn, Inc.
AKRX
Albany Molecular Research, Inc. AMRI
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ALXN
Alexza Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXA
Alkermes, Inc.
ALKS
Allos Therapeutics, Inc. ALTH
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY
AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
AMAG
Amgen Inc. AMGN
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
AMLN
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ARNA
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ARIA
ArQule, Inc.
ARQL
Array BioPharma Inc.
ARRY
Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AUXL
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
BCRX
Biodel Inc. BIOD
Biogen Idec Inc
BIIB
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
BMRN
BioMimetic Therapeutics, Inc. BMTI
BMP Sunstone Corporation BJGP
Cadence Pharmaceuticals, Inc. CADX
Cardiome Pharma Corporation CRME
Celera Corporation CRA
Celgene Corporation
CELG
Cephalon, Inc. CEPH
China Sky One Medical, Inc. CSKI
Columbia Laboratories, Inc.
CBRX
Crucell NV
CRXL
Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

CBST
Cypress Bioscience, Inc. CYPB
Cytokinetics, Incorporated CYTK
Dendreon Corporation DNDN
Depomed, Inc.
DEPO
Discovery Laboratories, Inc.
DSCO
Durect Corporation DRRX
Dyax Corp.
DYAX
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.
ENDP
Enzon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ENZN
Exelixis, Inc.
EXEL
Facet Biotech Corporation
FACT
Flamel Technologies S.A.
FLML
Gen-Probe Incorporated GPRO
Genomic Health, Inc. GHDX
Genzyme Corporation
GENZ
Geron Corporation
GERN
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
GILD
GTx, Inc. GTXI
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. HALO
Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc.
HITK
Human Genome Sciences, Inc.
HGSI
Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. IDIX
Illumina, Inc. ILMN
ImmunoGen, Inc.
IMGN
Immunomedics, Inc. IMMU
Impax Laboratories, Inc. IPXL
Incyte Corporation
INCY
Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ISPH
InterMune, Inc. ITMN
Isis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ISIS
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
LXRX
Life Technologies Corporation LIFE
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated LGND
Luminex Corporation
LMNX
MannKind Corporation MNKD
Maxygen, Inc.
MAXY
Medivation, Inc. MDVN
Micromet, Inc. MITI
MiddleBrook Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MBRK
Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MNTA
Mylan Inc.
MYL
Myriad Genetics, Inc. MYGN
Nabi Biopharmaceuticals
NABI
Nektar Therapeutics
NKTR
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
NBIX
Novavax, Inc. NVAX
NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
NPSP
Obagi Medical Products, Inc. OMPI
ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ONXX
Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. OPTR
Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc.
OREX
OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc.
OSIP
Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. OSIR
Pain Therapeutics
PTIE
PDL BioPharma, Inc.
PDLI
Perrigo Company
PRGO
Pharmasset, Inc. VRUS
Poniard Pharmaceuticals, Inc. PARD
Pozen, Inc.
POZN
Progenics Pharmaceuticals Inc.
PGNX
Qiagen N.V.
QGEN
QLT Inc.
QLTI
Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
QCOR
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
REGN
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
RIGL
Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.
SLXP
Sangamo BioSciences, Inc.
SGMO
Santarus, Inc. SNTS
Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc
SVNT
Seattle Genetics, Inc. SGEN
Sequenom, Inc.
SQNM Shire plc SHPGY
SIGA Technologies Inc.
SIGA
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. SPPI
StemCells, Inc.
STEM
SuperGen, Inc.
SUPG
Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. SNTA
Targacept, Inc. TRGT
Techne Corporation
TECH
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
TEVA
The Medicines Company
MDCO
Theravance, Inc. THRX
United Therapeutics Corporation
UTHR
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. VNDA
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

VRTX
Vical Incorporated VICL
ViroPharma Incorporated
VPHM
VIVUS, Inc.
VVUS
Warner Chilcott plc WCRX
XenoPort, Inc. XNPT
XOMA Ltd. XOMA
ZymoGenetics, Inc. ZGEN

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#3) On March 27, 2010 at 10:26 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

from here

from here

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#4) On March 27, 2010 at 11:14 PM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

Any fundamental reason why port? From the chart, it looks like the next bounce should be down.

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#5) On March 27, 2010 at 11:14 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

---------------

#616) On July 29, 2009 at 7:09 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ACOR - 25.99 - outperform

#690) On August 09, 2009 at 2:02 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ADLR - 1.65 - outperform

#251) On March 17, 2009 at 10:20 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: AFFX - 2.65 - outperform

#621) On July 30, 2009 at 2:55 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: AFFX - end outperform - 8.28 - new rating: market perform

#187) On March 13, 2009 at 3:35 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: AMRI - 8.62 - outperform

#324) On March 25, 2009 at 10:37 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ALXA - 2.25 - outperform

#430) On April 08, 2009 at 6:23 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ALKS - 8.44 - outperform

#998) On February 12, 2010 at 9:37 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ALNY - 17.48 - outperform

#590) On July 14, 2009 at 11:30 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: AMAG - 45.92 - outperform

#408) On March 31, 2009 at 3:16 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: AMLN - 11.72 - outperform

#277) On March 22, 2009 at 1:18 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ARNA - 4.16 - outperform

#789) On September 18, 2009 at 12:38 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ARNA - end outperform - 5.60 - new rating: market perform

#993) On February 12, 2010 at 7:03 PM, portefeuille12 (96.15) wrote: ARNA - end market perform - 3.24 - outperform

#201) On March 14, 2009 at 12:24 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ARIA - 1.33 - outperform

#495) On May 12, 2009 at 3:36 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ARQL - 4.01 - outperform

#200) On March 13, 2009 at 11:44 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: BMRN - 11.38 - outperform

#622) On July 30, 2009 at 3:23 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: CRME - 4.41 - outperform

#147) On March 10, 2009 at 3:18 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: CRA - 5.50 - outperform

#185) On March 13, 2009 at 3:04 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: CELG - 48.24 - outperform

#321) On March 25, 2009 at 8:05 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: CYPB - 7.56 - outperform

#213) On March 15, 2009 at 5:12 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: DNDN - 4.08 - outperform

#323) On March 25, 2009 at 9:54 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: DYAX - 2.70 - outperform

#283) On March 22, 2009 at 3:51 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ENZN - 6.09 - outperform

#517) On May 28, 2009 at 10:00 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: EXEL - 5.50 - outperform

#8) On February 24, 2009 at 2:44 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: FACT - 6.65 - outperform

#693) On August 09, 2009 at 9:56 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: GPRO - 38.05 - outperform

#215) On March 15, 2009 at 6:31 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: GHDX - 19.95 - outperform

#322) On March 25, 2009 at 9:10 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: GENZ - 56.71 - outperform

#132) On March 09, 2009 at 9:05 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: GERN - 4.98 - outperform

#184) On March 13, 2009 at 3:02 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: GILD - 45.14 - outperform

#604) On July 25, 2009 at 4:24 PM, portefeuille10 (98.73) wrote: HALO - 7.11 - outperform

#145) On March 10, 2009 at 3:06 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: HGSI - 0.50 - outperform

#595) On July 16, 2009 at 1:00 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: HGSI - end outperform - 3.69 - no new rating

#977) On February 07, 2010 at 7:17 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: HGSI - 26.75 - outperform

#252) On March 17, 2009 at 11:22 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ILMN - 34.33 - outperform

#193) On March 13, 2009 at 5:09 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: IMGN - 6.02 - outperform

#307) On March 25, 2009 at 1:46 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: IMMU - 0.96 - outperform

#548) On July 11, 2009 at 9:41 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: IMMU - end outperform - 2.43 - no new rating

#203) On March 14, 2009 at 12:42 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: INCY - 2.42 - outperform

#471) On April 25, 2009 at 1:10 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ISIS - 15.92 - outperform

#204) On March 14, 2009 at 12:09 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: LXRX - 0.97 - outperform

#148) On March 10, 2009 at 3:24 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: LIFE - 27.84 - outperform

#852) On November 22, 2009 at 6:55 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: LIFE - end outperform - 49.43 - new rating: market perform

#978) On February 07, 2010 at 7:21 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: LIFE - end market perform - 47.36 - outperform

#615) On July 29, 2009 at 7:02 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: LGND - 2.93 - outperform

#699) On August 10, 2009 at 8:30 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: LMNX - 15.40 - outperform

#235) On March 17, 2009 at 1:56 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: MITI - 2.52 - outperform

#577) On July 13, 2009 at 9:45 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: MITI - end outperform - 4.80 - no new rating

#46) On March 04, 2009 at 12:10 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: MNTA - 8.01 - outperform

#489) On May 05, 2009 at 9:55 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: MYGN - 31.34 - outperform

#797) On September 21, 2009 at 9:00 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: NKTR - 9.74 - outperform

#617) On July 29, 2009 at 7:31 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: NBIX - 3.39 - outperform

#64) On March 05, 2009 at 10:27 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: NVAX - 0.65 - outperform

#549) On July 11, 2009 at 9:48 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: NVAX - end outperform - 2.58 - no new rating

#453) On April 22, 2009 at 10:20 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: NPSP - 3.37 - outperform

#202) On March 14, 2009 at 12:31 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: ONXX - 29.41 - outperform

#951) On January 24, 2010 at 12:10 AM, portefeuille2 (99.85) wrote: OPTR - 13.43 - outperform

#61) On March 05, 2009 at 9:25 AM, portefeuille3 (99.73) wrote: OREX - 2.57 - outperform

#432) On April 14, 2009 at 5:58 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: OSIP - 35.49 - outperform

#45) On March 03, 2009 at 10:57 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: PTIE - 4.00 - outperform

#146) On March 10, 2009 at 3:15 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: PDLI - 6.55 - outperform

#123) On March 08, 2009 at 7:07 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VRUS - 8.86 - outperform

#807) On September 28, 2009 at 11:45 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: PARD - 7.53 - outperform

#206) On March 14, 2009 at 11:26 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: PGNX - 5.73 - outperform

#149) On March 10, 2009 at 3:36 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: QGEN - 16.09 - outperform

#50) On March 04, 2009 at 2:47 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: QLTI - 1.49 - outperform

#657) On August 05, 2009 at 11:18 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: QLTI - end outperform - 3.67 - new rating: market perform

#319) On March 25, 2009 at 7:12 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: QCOR - 4.45 - outperform

#691) On August 09, 2009 at 2:44 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: RIGL - 8.62 - outperform

#314) On March 25, 2009 at 9:53 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: SGMO - 4.42 - outperform

#748) On August 25, 2009 at 4:01 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: SGMO - end outperform - 7.21 - new rating: market perform

#162) On March 10, 2009 at 11:44 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: SQNM - 13.75 - outperform

#533) On July 06, 2009 at 7:56 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: SPPI - 5.35 - outperform

#366) On March 26, 2009 at 8:13 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: STEM - 1.73 - outperform

#367) On March 26, 2009 at 8:50 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: SUPG - 1.77 - outperform

#532) On July 05, 2009 at 12:03 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: SNTA - 2.29 - outperform

#1002) On February 12, 2010 at 9:45 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: TRGT - 20.43 - outperform

#1001) On February 12, 2010 at 9:44 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VNDA - 10.63 - outperform

#494) On May 11, 2009 at 1:15 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VICL - 2.29 - outperform

#653) On August 01, 2009 at 11:17 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VICL - end outperform - 3.57 - new rating: market perform

#802) On September 24, 2009 at 9:17 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VICL - 4.76 - outperform

#214) On March 15, 2009 at 5:20 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VPHM - 4.58 - outperform

#614) On July 29, 2009 at 11:23 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VPHM - end outperform - 8.09 - new rating: market perform

#278) On March 22, 2009 at 1:20 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: VVUS - 4.36 - outperform

#694) On August 09, 2009 at 10:56 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: XNPT - 20.60 - outperform

---------------

(from here

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#6) On March 27, 2010 at 11:16 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Well, one "fundamental reason" would be that the combined market capitalisation of the component companies is smaller than that of Pfizer. I think ...

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#7) On March 27, 2010 at 11:22 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

From the chart, it looks like the next bounce should be down.

I made it look that way. I am pretty sure not too many will draw that dashed line like that, so you can't count on the self-fulfilling prophecy effect. And that is more or less the only part of technical analysis I at least to some extent "believe" in ...

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#8) On March 27, 2010 at 11:32 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

The 2008 intraday-high of the NBI was at around 937.24. I think most chartists would call the "action" of this week a "breakout" with a "successful backtest" on 03/26/10.



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#9) On March 27, 2010 at 11:37 PM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

I trust you port, but I'm still lost. Explain it slowly for the guys that are impaired on barley and hops.

What's the catalyst to make them break through? 

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#10) On March 27, 2010 at 11:40 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

The intra-day low on 03/26/10 was approximately 937.98.

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#11) On March 27, 2010 at 11:49 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

The "catalyst" will probably be a few more takeovers and other "deals".

Roche CEO Touts Pipeline, Remains Open To More Deals

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Roche CEO Schwan Puts Science First in Pursuing Deals

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Roche Holding AG Chief Executive Officer Severin Schwan said he seeks acquisitions that will bolster the company’s research programs, rather than “mega- mergers” designed to add immediate revenue.

Roche, the world’s biggest maker of cancer medicines, is interested in partnerships or acquisitions that would strengthen that position, and expand its work on Alzheimer’s disease and diabetes, Schwan said in an interview today in New York. In the face of increased pricing pressure in the drug industry, Roche’s strategy is to “constantly rejuvenate” its pipeline, he said.

...

“It’s vitally important to tap into the innovation that’s happening outside of Roche, and that can take many forms” including licensing agreements, collaborations and acquisitions, Schwan said. “We would only look at smaller and medium-size acquisitions. We would not go for big mega-mergers like you see happening in the industry. We would go where the science takes us.”

...

---------------

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#12) On March 27, 2010 at 11:56 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

another catalyst might be stuff like this.

Nanotech robots deliver gene therapy through blood

Cancer genes silenced in humans

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Evidence of RNAi in humans from systemically administered siRNA via targeted nanoparticles

Mark E. Davis1, Jonathan E. Zuckerman1, Chung Hang J. Choi1, David Seligson2,3, Anthony Tolcher5, Christopher A. Alabi1,8, Yun Yen6, Jeremy D. Heidel7 & Antoni Ribas2,4

...

Therapeutics that are designed to engage RNA interference (RNAi) pathways have the potential to provide new, major ways of imparting therapy to patients1, 2. Long, double-stranded RNAs were first shown to mediate RNAi in Caenorhabditis elegans3, and the potential use of RNAi for human therapy has been demonstrated by the finding that small interfering RNAs (siRNAs; approximately 21-base-pair double-stranded RNA) can elicit RNAi in mammalian cells without producing an interferon response4. We are at present conducting the first in-human phase I clinical trial involving the systemic administration of siRNA to patients with solid cancers using a targeted, nanoparticle delivery system. Here we provide evidence of inducing an RNAi mechanism of action in a human from the delivered siRNA. Tumour biopsies from melanoma patients obtained after treatment show the presence of intracellularly localized nanoparticles in amounts that correlate with dose levels of the nanoparticles administered (this is, to our knowledge, a first for systemically delivered nanoparticles of any kind). Furthermore, a reduction was found in both the specific messenger RNA (M2 subunit of ribonucleotide reductase (RRM2)) and the protein (RRM2) levels when compared to pre-dosing tissue. Most notably, we detect the presence of an mRNA fragment that demonstrates that siRNA-mediated mRNA cleavage occurs specifically at the site predicted for an RNAi mechanism from a patient who received the highest dose of the nanoparticles. Together, these data demonstrate that siRNA administered systemically to a human can produce a specific gene inhibition (reduction in mRNA and protein) by an RNAi mechanism of action.

...

---------------

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#13) On March 27, 2010 at 11:57 PM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

Port, you are really good at analysis, but if I'm buying a company, I'm buying it at the bottom of that chart and not the top.

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#14) On March 28, 2010 at 12:02 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

#16 Well, I told you to buy shares of Human Genome Sciences when it was at $0.50, did I not, hehe ...

#145) On March 10, 2009 at 3:06 PM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: HGSI - 0.50 - outperform



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#15) On March 28, 2010 at 12:24 AM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

Yes you did buddy, but I know that you have something more in your head than someone like Dragonlz that is going to tell me that media is hot.

I'd like to follow, but I need to know why. You know the answer, you are just afraid to tell me.

 

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#16) On March 28, 2010 at 12:37 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

---------------
New Drug Approvals USA ( FDA 2009 )

New Drugs in the US Market



The number of 25 new drugs approved by the FDA in 2009 was slightly better than 22 and 18 new drugs approved in 2008 and 2007 respectively. However FDA failed to meet its PDUFA review goals of 10 months and 6 months for standard and priority NDAs/BLAs (90% of dossier) . FDA new emphasis on drug safety and post marketing surveillance resulted in prolonged review period. The number of most serious side effects warnings (Black Box) was 31 in comparison to 56 such warnings added to existing drugs in 2008. European regulators were faster in approving 51 new chemical/molecular entities resulting in a significant drug lag for the FDA. The number of new chemical entities approved was 18 while the number of biologics and vaccines approved was 20. The 2009 approvals of over 38 NMEs (includes 5 pandemic vaccines, major new indications, old industrial chemical with new use) confirms the R&D shift towards biologics, vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. No new drug was approved during the last month of December unlike past years. There were 5 pandemic influenza vaccines, 1 drug under the Emergency User Act, 10 priority review drugs and 1 orphan drug for malaria.

...

Results

The year 2009 was a record year for the approvals of biologics and vaccines as several new vaccines,  monoclonal antibodies and biologics were approved by the FDA and EMA. 
The new FDA leadership has promised that the agency will be driven by science and evidence based medicine.  FDA new rules allow seriously ill patients easier access to investigational drugs under treatment IND. These  rules include access to marketed drugs for unapproved indications. FDA guidelines to the industry and  sponsors defined rules for charging patients for experimental drugs outside clinical trials.
FDA new emphasis on "Safety First" and post approval drug safety monitoring and the new Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy REMS have resulted in longer review period for regulatory review. European regulators (EMA) were faster and quicker in approving new drugs in 2009. There were over 30 drugs held up in the approval process due to REMS review. This resulted in significant "Drug Lag" in the USA in comparison with Europe. FDA has clearly stated that it is not in a race with EMA for new drugs approvals. According to the FDA, all approval drugs with complete dossier are approved. However FDA has failed to keep its review deadlines for priority, orphan and standard NDA/BLA drugs.

...

---------------

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#17) On March 28, 2010 at 1:24 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

another catalyst might be "personalised medicine".

QIAGEN Unit And Pfizer Enter Into An Agreement To Develop A Companion Diagnostic For Brain Tumor Patients

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#18) On March 28, 2010 at 1:30 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Personalized Healthcare (pdf)

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#19) On March 28, 2010 at 2:42 AM, jaccuse6 (< 20) wrote:

Good info. Thank you.

 

Can you lend your opinion on Chinese Pharma? Most notably BSPM.OB and CSKI. Also wondering what your favorite Chinese pharma play is?'

 

Thanks!

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#20) On March 28, 2010 at 9:27 AM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

LOL, I have to try this approach more with Port.

Very good info and thanks 

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#21) On March 28, 2010 at 12:53 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index - BTK



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Biotech HLDRS (BBH)



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#22) On March 28, 2010 at 1:04 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

ETF Spotlight: First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology

Five Biotech ETFs, Each Cut From a Different Cloth

A Close Look at Five Biotech ETFs

Which Biotech ETF Is Best? Five Ideas

Mitigating Biotech Risk With ETFs

Re-Evaluating Your Healthcare Exposure: A Sector ETF Overview

Three Biotech ETFs for Different Risk Appetites

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#23) On March 28, 2010 at 1:15 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

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Biotech’s 2009 Stealth Small Cap Rally

...

Big Versus Small

The twenty-member NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index (BTK) was up 46% in 2009, while the broader NASDAQ Biotech Index (NBI) was only up 16%, underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX), and NASDAQ Composite (COMP), which were up 19%, 24%, and 44%, respectively. Why the huge discrepancy in returns between these two major biotechnology indices? Unlike the equal-weighted NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index, the NASDAQ Biotech Index is market value-weighted, taking into account the total market capitalization of the companies it tracks and not just their share prices. Accordingly, companies with the largest market capitalizations, or the greatest values, will have the highest weighting in the index.

During 2009, large capitalization biotechnology companies [greater than $10 billion] dramatically underperformed their smaller peers. For example, Celgene Corporation (CELG) was essentially flat, Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) was down 2%, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) declined by 15%, and Genzyme Corporation (GENZ) dropped 26% [earning Henri Termeer the coveted Nance Trophy for worst biotech CEO of 2009 by TheStreet.com’s Adam Feuerstein]. Some of the reasons for this poor performance include concerns over generic competition and pipeline progress – ironically some of the same issues that have plagued big pharma.

Accordingly, the relative underperformance of large capitalization biotechnology companies in 2009 masked the fact that many smaller, innovative companies performed well, with 20 of the 125 companies comprising the NASDAQ Biotech Index producing triple-digit returns during the period. In fact, two biotechnology companies were among the largest percentage gainers in the NASDAQ Composite with their staggering quadruple-digit returns: Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VNDA) +2,150% and Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (HGSI) +1,342%. See Table 1 for a list of the top ten gainers from the NASDAQ Biotech Index in 2009.

...

---------------

The twenty-member NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index (BTK) was up 46% in 2009

This was, "to a significant degree", due to just one component (HGSI).

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#24) On March 28, 2010 at 1:36 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

This "small capitalisation outperformance" can also be seen when you look at the performance of the calls from the "biotech sector" I made via my player portefeuille.


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#25) On March 28, 2010 at 1:43 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

HGSI, DNDN, INCY, FACT for example were small cap companies when I made my first "outperform" call on them, whereas GENZ, GILD, CEPH, BIIB were not.

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#26) On March 28, 2010 at 1:46 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

some posts by zzlangerhans on biotech investing are linked to comment #818 here.

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#27) On March 28, 2010 at 2:24 PM, cashkid79 (94.72) wrote:

you have sparked my interest in biotech...well, you and some other things ;  btw sorry i think i spelled portefeuille as portfeuille in an earlier something i was typing on here (I think) ... check it out and let me know if I have this right http://msncaps.fool.com/Pitch/ANPI/3990811/if-you-like-crazy-volatility-t.aspx i think thats it...we'll see

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#28) On March 28, 2010 at 11:42 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Biotech’s 2009 Stealth Small Cap Rally

another stealth rally.

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Tech shares boom to last, say analysts

Updated: 2010-03-29 09:25

BEIJING - The recent strong performance of technology stocks on the A-share market may be reminiscent of the internet bubble's peak 10 years ago but analysts said the current trend was far from crashing and there was still a lot for investors to expect.

The share price of the ChiNext-listed Beijing Ultrapower Software Co Ltd hit a record high of 193.42 yuan last week, replacing liquor producer Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd as the highest-priced stock on the Chinese stock market. While the overall market has seen dull range-bound movements for months, the electronic and information technology sector outperformed the market by surging more than 200 percent since the market bottomed out in October 2008. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rallied only about 80 percent during the same period.

...

---------------

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#29) On March 30, 2010 at 1:40 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Fast machines, genes and the future of medicine

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#30) On April 03, 2010 at 11:06 AM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Companies riding the genome wave

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#31) On April 04, 2010 at 11:14 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Hi Port,

 Trying to follow your last few blogs...

 Are you a long term fan of NBI? and then KV/A, RIGL?

 and still a fan of AIXG?

 Finally, how about takeda?

any insight / comments would be appreciated. Thanks.

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#32) On April 04, 2010 at 3:27 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Yes, still a "fan" of AIXG and the NBI. RIGL is a "pretty safe" biotech stock (now that they collected their first $100 million from AZN). The KV/A position is only around 0.14% of the fund's long position. It is not exactly "safe". Takeda is obviously in the "big pharma" category and probably a little too boring for the fund. I have never really looked at it. I should.

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#33) On April 05, 2010 at 9:10 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

thanks for the response Port!

Havent been on in a while. Will you be updating us if/when you change your mind of NBI, AIXG, and RIGL? Thanks.

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#34) On April 05, 2010 at 9:15 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Port - in response to post #28 and the article link:

 what do you think about these funds?

iShares S&P Global Technology (IXN), Claymore/AlphaShares China Technology (CQQQ), Global X China Technology (CHIB), SPDR S&P International Technology (IPK) and iShares MSCI Taiwan (EWT),

 

Thanks.

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#35) On April 05, 2010 at 9:56 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

Using ETFs to "cover" certain areas (like "tech") or stock markets (like the Taiwanese) is probably a good idea, especially if you don't have enough money to achieve reasonable diversification otherwise.

IXN appears to be a decent and somewhat boring tech ETF.

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/IXN.htm?qt=IXN

Of the one you mention EWT is probably the one I like best.

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EWT.htm?qt=EWT

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The SPDR® S&P® International Technology Sector ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI Information Technology Sector Index (ticker: SPBMUTUP), an index that tracks the technology sector of developed global markets outside the United States. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.

---------------

(from: https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=IPK)

so I guess another rather boring tech ETF, this time excluding the U.S. ...

All the ETFs you list are mentioned in this article. 

ETF Strategies for a Tech Boom

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#36) On April 05, 2010 at 9:59 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

well what do you like for folks who have money reasonably diversify in tech? and reasonably diversify in biotech?

i have some ewt already

 

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#37) On April 05, 2010 at 10:12 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

For tech in general I really don't feel competent and for biotech I am approaching "somewhat competent", but certainly not competent enough. You could start by reading the posts by zzlangerhans on biotech investing (some of them are linked to comment #818 here) and the stuff Feuerstein writes here, skip through some books and listen to some company presentations. Once you have done that you should be able to build a diversified portfolio. But the main gain is probably the fun of studying some biotech ...

 

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#38) On March 27, 2013 at 11:53 PM, portefeuille (99.67) wrote:

update.



enlarge

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