TheDumbMoney (56.21)

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September 28, 2011 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: IAU , GLD , SLV

Peter Brandt, a fantastic trader with a 30(+)-year record trading commodities, and who is a long-term gold bull, nevertheless has this to say today about the shiny gold and silver metals.

Note that he is pretty purely a chartist in his short-term calls. I suggest the whole link above. But the money quotes are a prediction of $1,400 for gold, and a possibility that we see silver below $20/oz, before there is any major per-oz price rise in either metal above prior highs. If he's correct, and you are a bull, when you you had better have balls of .... well, you know. I think he may be incorrect on at least one of his above-ground-stocks calculations, but that is not the basis for his call.

All of the bajillions tracking my every move (bajillions of electrostatically attracted dust particles that is), know that I for a long time have been intellectually interested in the gold/silver question. But I have no positions either way.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 28, 2011 at 2:03 PM, SkepticalOx (98.69) wrote:

For those who don't know, Peter has an annual rate-of-return of 42% over 2 decades.

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#2) On September 28, 2011 at 2:19 PM, TheDumbMoney (56.21) wrote:

Yes, there is that. :-)

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#3) On September 28, 2011 at 2:26 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"For those who don't know, Peter has an annual rate-of-return of 42% over 2 decades."

42%/year? Compounded, that would have turned $10k invested 20 years ago into...$11 million+ today. Not bad.

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#4) On September 28, 2011 at 2:57 PM, TheDumbMoney (56.21) wrote:

davejh23, yes he had it independently audited, and he has the information on his website. The way he puts it, he turned $1,000 into $300,000+.

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#5) On September 28, 2011 at 3:28 PM, Teacherman1 (48.45) wrote:

The only Gold I have, I bought many years ago, so I don't do anything with it now because it would only dilute my profits, but that was a very interesting article.

Thanks for posting.

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#6) On September 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM, TheDumbMoney (56.21) wrote:

I have to say, at this point I view it as a MAJOR correction, and not the end of the bull market in gold. I'm less sanguine on silver, for reasons I have elaborated on in other posts; or at the very least I think it has farther to fall than gold does. I continue to believe that as to gold, the best way to understand monthly movements (i.e., not necessarily day-to-day, or the decade trend, though maybe the latter) is with Eddy Elfenbein's short term real interest rate model, about which I have posted ad nauseum on my blog and on the actual legitimate articles published by Fool writers.

Okay. If I were Jewish, I would be making a New Year's resolution not to talk about gold anymore, in honor of Rosh Hashanah. I'm not Jewish, but I hereby make the resolution: back to stocks for me.

And also, Happy Rosh Hashanah.

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#7) On September 28, 2011 at 4:57 PM, leohaas (98.75) wrote: