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alstry (36.24)

NEVER seen this BEFORE

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14

March 11, 2008 – Comments (3)

Its getting a little old  hearing HB executives continue lie to shareholders and the public.  At the end of the HOV conference call this morning, Ara said he has seen this kind of environment before and once the competition goes out of business, things will return to "normal."

It is a blatant lie.  Ara has NEVER seen this environment before.

Never before did so many people buy homes on teaser rates and teaser rates jumped from 3 or 4% to over 10%.  If you limited out at the teaser rate, which many did, any increase takes you out of the game.

Never before have so many homes been foreclosed so early in the cycle all around the country at the same time.  Actually, even though it is early into the cycle, never before has there ever been so many foreclosures on a national basis.

Never before have so many people had little or no equity in their homes effectively making impossible for many to sell to purchase another home.

Never before has Ara seen so much vacant inventory for sale around the country.

Never before have major homebuilders borrowed so much money to speculate on land at historically high prices.

Never before have the incomes of Americans decreased over an 8 year period while NON housing related expenses exploded including property taxes, interest expenses, insurance, food and fuel.

Never before has Ara seen the value of the American home decline on a National basis....Ara wasn't born in the Great Depression.

Never before has Ara seen so many Americans struggle just to meet their monthly expenses.

Sure Ara..............keep telling us how you have seen this before.

 

 

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 11, 2008 at 12:16 PM, hbshorty2008 (< 20) wrote:

"once the competition goes out of business" -- perhaps Ara doesn't realize he's one of these he's referring to?

Also do you remember when at the last CC Ara said that "Dec contracts were picking up significanty". From this Q's results it is obvious he was lying.

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#2) On March 11, 2008 at 4:00 PM, DemonDoug (48.37) wrote:

HOV is toast.  Over 2b in debt, and their target cashflow is 100m?  Someone give Ara a thimble, the titanic is sinking!

And who here really thinks they will be actually cashflowing 100m with all the rapidly decreasing land values, recession, and slumping national and global economy.

Lol good luck with that Ara.

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#3) On March 11, 2008 at 4:38 PM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

Demon: 

'Home builder Toll Brothers Inc. warned that it could suffer "significant" losses if its joint-venture partners don't honor their obligations to certain development projects amid the housing downturn.'

JVs are now defaulting around the country.  Luckily for HOV, little if any of its JV debt is recourse.  However, SPF has over $700 million of recourse debt, of which over $400 million is subject to remargin liability.  LEN has even more exposure.

Now, the banks are playing JV hot potato.  Who is going to be holding the spud on the eventual default.

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