TigerPackFund (< 20)

63 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 19, 2009 at 11:51 AM, Quantemonics (99.81) wrote:

I am seriously considering your proposal.

Report this comment

#2) On June 19, 2009 at 11:54 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

TigerPack: Good call! I will be very interested in watching this portfolio's progress!

Report this comment

#3) On June 19, 2009 at 11:56 AM, SurvivalInfo (< 20) wrote:

I hope you have more criteria than just a high CAPS score because that is often meaningless. 

Report this comment

#4) On June 19, 2009 at 12:09 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

Tiger.....Recd....and commendable idea

Report this comment

#5) On June 19, 2009 at 12:18 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

I hope you can all email me if interested in becoming a "contributor."

Please include your 5 picks, thumbs up or down, and any time frame you would prefer for CAPS.

If you want to "pitch" why you should be included I am all ears (underneath some hair and fur). It will probably take a few weeks to get 40 credible and interesting minds up and running.

 -TigerPack

Report this comment

#6) On June 19, 2009 at 12:38 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

How will this be different from "ALLSTARPORTFOLIO"?  More exclusive?  Handtossed (errr picked)?  Less rules? 

When you put together this group, it would be interesting to do a quick survey of them:  What are their jobs?  How old are they?  How many of them actively invest their own money?  Do they use TA, FA, Voodoo, insider information or some hybrid to make their picks?  Do they all live in the US?  Are they experts in any particular industry region or segment?  Education?

It would be interesting to see what characteristics make up the top fools, and if they have anything in common besides high scores.

Report this comment

#7) On June 19, 2009 at 12:45 PM, kaskoosek (98.23) wrote:

Tiger

 

How is this different from Allstar's 

Report this comment

#8) On June 19, 2009 at 12:45 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

hey, since the first thoughts are usually the best (are they?) here are 5:

EMC,FACT,SQNM,EXEL,LUK. all "outperform", "long-term".

(see comment #17 here)

Report this comment

#9) On June 19, 2009 at 12:52 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

A draft of an EMC "pitch" is here and a link collection for FACT is here. SQNM should do fine if they resolve their "issues" and everybody loves EXEL and LUK so there should be no shortage of "pitches" for those ...

Report this comment

#10) On June 19, 2009 at 12:55 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

#6 Germany, physicist, born in the 70s, not a "believer" in anything special.

Report this comment

#11) On June 19, 2009 at 12:59 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

How is this different from Allstar's

I get a better "entry price" for FACT, hehe.

Report this comment

#12) On June 19, 2009 at 12:59 PM, synergize (32.01) wrote:

HBAN

Insider trading is very bullish with 34 buys and 0 sell for the last 3 months.

Based on MSN StockScouter ownership valuation, shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions. Positive for large companies like HBAN.

Also I picked it based on the industry group performance and not only as an individual stock.

Report this comment

#13) On June 19, 2009 at 1:03 PM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

I do not think its too different from AllStar....except this is my chance to network with Tiger......

Report this comment

#14) On June 19, 2009 at 3:10 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Portefeuille and others,

Please be sure to email your picks to me, so we can have discussions about the picks, in private, before unveiling them on CAPS.  That way we can engage more behind the scenes to make sure this portfolio runs smoothly, and I understand where each pick is coming from.  Be sure to clearly state thumbs up or down, so I execute fewer errors in entering the picks.

I do NOT plan to have any "pitches" on this member page for each selection, but a simple hyperlink to your home webpage on CAPS, similar to my first 5 picks.  That way you can be responsible for as little or as much discussion as you would like about each pick and your market views.

To answer another question, some of us have emailed back and forth that the AllStarPortfolio many not have the outsized gains as hoped for, because of the inclusion of such a large array of proven and unproven, bull and bear pickers, and the way it is being arranged with just one pick per person.

Based on my 25-years of trading and investing, I am putting my butt on the line by choosing those on CAPS that I think have solid ideas and reasoning now and likely in the future.  The 40 horses I pick, that want to participate (many may not want to for various reasons), should give us a strong chance of generating decent diversified investment returns and research ideas for readers.  Plus, I plan on dropping some members if they do not perform, and some may participate in the beginning on a trial basis only, until they can prove they are worth being here.

I am sure this system of selection may upset some people over time, but my primary goal is to find "the" best collection of ideas out there, not necessarily the most diplomatic or democratic process mind you.

I am just giving the CAPS guys and AllStarPortfolio a little competition; I hope they don't believe they have a monopoly on new blended-pick members.  I know of several more in the works!  I am confident the fool.com boys will allow for some competition, as they already have done so with their decision to let others produce multiple portfolios and Top Player partnerships during the past year.

Report this comment

#15) On June 19, 2009 at 4:17 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

I have around 25 people on my Favorites list under my main TigerPack member name.  For the most part, any of the fools listed can participate, if they choose to do so.  Check the link and click on Favorites to see if you are on this "short" list of characters I have found so far.

http://caps.fool.com/player/tigerpack.aspx

Even if all participated in this adventure (which I doubt will), that still leaves a good 15 spots up for grabs.  So far, I have received positive feedback from at least 5 or 6 of you on my Favorites list.  My goal is to have more portfolio picks on Monday or Tuesday.

Please email your picks this weekend directly to TigerPackFund@yahoo.com, and a pitch on why you would like to be contributor, so I can do research and comparison shopping for talent.

Without an email, I won't be able to communicate quickly and more directly with those involved in the project.  Create a new email address on one of the free websites if you desire, so as not to clutter your regular inbox or for privacy reasons, if you must.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#16) On June 19, 2009 at 4:42 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I was just about to start my own dodgeball team until I was shocked to see my name on your list.    The group so far seems to have good diversity, it will be interesting to see if it can agree on anything.  I bring a certain amount of naivity and ignorance to the party that may help balance things out. 

In response to my own questions:  Business Rotational Program, 29, Own money, FA, US, Bio-Energy/Chemicals, BS/MS Biosystems Engineering and MBA.

Report this comment

#17) On June 19, 2009 at 5:27 PM, brwn8484 (91.16) wrote:

excuse me for syaing this but we already have the ability to track the top 40 members.    Why do we need another service?

Report this comment

#18) On June 20, 2009 at 12:18 AM, Tastylunch (29.93) wrote:

I'll watch with great interest TP

You have some great minds in there Anchak, Porte, Everyday, JakilatheHun,BravoBevo, Freund, PLynchjr are some of the very best in CAPS

you may wish to invite TheGarcipian, RonChapmanJr and GTRInvestor, TMFDeej, DemonDoug and ZZlangerhans too if you are looking for more talent.

Report this comment

#19) On June 20, 2009 at 1:46 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

TigerPack: I completely agree with Tasty above here. All of those are great investors (have made great picks/calls/pitches in the past). Out of that list, I strongly second TheGarcipian. I hope that's useful :)

Report this comment

#20) On June 20, 2009 at 1:49 AM, AllStarPortfolio (22.97) wrote:

And FloridaBuilder. not to mention. . .. but you know who they are.

   I don't see it as much like AllStarPortfolio. I do see the similarity. 

   I actually thought about the limitation of the one pick thing. We did it this way because that's just what the folks on that day were saying. In fact, if we don't fill the 200 in a year or whatever, we may open to more than one pick.
   I really like your idea, and think that if you can get participation you will do well.
   I have seen that a lot of folks are really busy, and even when they want to give some of their time, they can only give a little. So AllStarPortfolio is what it is because it's what it is.
   If you have the time though, which i assume you know what you're doing, then it's just a matter of waiting for the goods to develop, which is how i feel about AllStarPortfolio. I have confidence that given time, the majority of our picks will do well, or be replaced by others that do better. Some will do very well.

   TigerPackFund will possibly do better, but i hope the the AllStarPortfolio will level off into somewhat low maintainence. I think your project is beyond me at all levels. 

  I look forward to learning a little, though, even if i can't play. 

Good Luck !

-solaris

Report this comment

#21) On June 20, 2009 at 2:08 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.97) wrote:

and everybody loves EXEL and LUK so there should be no shortage of "pitches" for those ...

Says who... I personally am bearish on Leucadia, but hey, it wouldn't be a market unless you had dissenters like me =)

UltraLong

Report this comment

#22) On June 20, 2009 at 6:54 AM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

21) I am just a lazy guy. I am well aware of the non-lovers. There is always a seller ...

Well, maybe I should see whether I really like them after some "real research"  ...

Report this comment

#23) On June 20, 2009 at 7:47 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

I don't have any "official" picks yet from you portefeuille at my email address, send them when you are ready to join.

Report this comment

#24) On June 20, 2009 at 7:51 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Most all of the member names listed in this blog will surely be considered if they want to join and email me.

In addition to those listed on TigerPack's Favorites list, abitare, chk999 and tenmiles are definitely welcome to join also.

We should have a good number of stock picks added on Monday.

Report this comment

#25) On June 20, 2009 at 7:57 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Ultra and Port touch on the issue of contributors wanting to rate the same stock.

Since we can only have one pitch per stock on CAPS, I will take selections and make individual picks on a first come, first server basis to my email box.

If two want to recommend IBM for example the same day, one up, one down, or both up, I will post the pick under the member name that emails me first with his/her preference.  That's the only "fair" way of selection in my mind, and the easiest on me.

Report this comment

#26) On June 20, 2009 at 8:06 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Solaris,

AllStarPortfolio may prove to be a better idea on several levels.  I am curious to see if I can pick a handful of characters that know what they are doing.  I am sure this effort will take more of my time to keep it running, than I bargained for.

Good luck with your venture; I will continue to contribute to AllStarPortfolio also.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#27) On June 20, 2009 at 9:38 AM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

#25: Use a voting sytle to resolve conflicts Tiger.

So common up/down picks - should go into Hold status - till someone casts a resolution vote. ( This wasy you are giving equal weight - no who hit the button first thing).

One thing which I have asked MF for before was to have the Watchlist public.....that would make this so much simpler!

Also you can use Timefram resoultion: For eg., 

I am guessing you are expecting people to mention their Timeframe as in AllStar.

So like in your example if I picked IBM with a 5Y timeframe and GoodVibe says 3W short.......

Knowing you are a more longer term guy - I win here ! ( No offense GV)

Report this comment

#28) On June 20, 2009 at 10:19 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

There are plenty of other stocks to choose from.

If someone wants to use 1 of their 5 picks to green thumb a large gold stock, for example, many exist that replicate by GDX index red thumb performance in reverse.  If IBM is taken, there are 20 other technology stocks that move in a similar fashion.

I don't think this issue will be much of a problem for the 40 involved.

Each contributor should focus on the 5 "best" ideas they can come up with.  I am hoping each follows his/her own path, and the other 39 don't particulary sway their independent research and style for selection.  In this vein, we will have a truly diversified approach from 40 smart guys/gals that will be available for view in one spot.  Since we are picking contributors based largely on recent past performance, I believe we will have an excellent talent pool for this experiment.

Report this comment

#29) On June 22, 2009 at 11:57 AM, Quantemonics1 (99.70) wrote:

OK, we have some more picks today, so we can start developing a score.

When portefeuille make's his picks we will have 4 of the 16 top-ranked CAPS members participating the first few days.

Stronger response than I was expecting.

Please bears, we need a few of you to participate for better long-term balance.  Nearly all members emailing me are bulls so far.

I would like a range of ages and philosophies from contributors to produce a real cross section of battle-tested stock picking ideas in one place.

-Tiger

 

Report this comment

#30) On June 22, 2009 at 12:09 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

can you maybe just add my picks? I hate emails ...

Report this comment

#31) On June 22, 2009 at 1:40 PM, GoodVibe4Ever wrote:

Thanks Tiger for the invitation. Sure I will be happy to join. You know that I have a plan for a similar thing but putting it on hold until I find sometime for it to get it right. Also, I am going on a vacation very soon (chances next week) and I won't be around to follow the market for at least a month. So once I come back, you will find me knocking. Best wishes!

Nice to see your first blog ever! :) Keep them coming.

GoodVibe

Report this comment

#32) On June 22, 2009 at 3:26 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe- 

I will add your member name to the Favorites list on TigerPackFund and hold you one of the 40 spots.  You can make picks when you are ready.

Just email your 5 "best" selections, with thumbs up or down clearly stated, and a time frame for CAPS scoring to TigerPackFund@yahoo.com when you can.  You can change or end your picks however the CAPS game allows, by emailing me your wishes.  My goal is to enter contributor changes on CAPS as quickly as I can, but it may take a business day or two, depending on time constraints/demands in my real life.

-TigerPack

 

 

Report this comment

#33) On June 22, 2009 at 11:11 PM, TMFJake (59.48) wrote:

TigerPack, I love these experiments and look forward to following your progress.  Best, jk

Report this comment

#34) On June 26, 2009 at 11:38 PM, streetflame (31.26) wrote:

My favorite thing about AllStarPortfolio is the pitch on every post.  They have gotten tons of recs and comments because people have been working hard on them.  In the long run, why you make a trade is as important as what it is.  You should at least give people the option of making a pitch.

If you want more bears for this portfolio here are my 5 best ideas.  Short FHN, GLG, SAH, SYMC, and CMRG.  I'll send an email this weekend.

I wonder if it's possible to create a tool to gather data from CAPS pages automatically.  If we could collect the holdings from say the top 500 players then apply some weightings (by bulls-bears, market cap, date, marked as top pick, etc.) that would be really cool.

Report this comment

#35) On June 27, 2009 at 9:12 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

This venture will not try to replicate the AllStarPortfolio.  We are building something a little different here.

I am not listing pitches for two reasons - one it will save me time and effort keeping track of pitches and changes to them, and two when I get a pitch that needs editing or censoring I will not need to be the arbitrator or held liable by readers for the content or the contributor for making changes he/she does not like.  The direct link to your homepage will allow you to say whatever you want about your picks and market musings.

My goal is to create the FIRST webpage you need to read/review on CAPS to find a "range" of great research and investment ideas, not the ONLY webpage.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#36) On June 27, 2009 at 5:33 PM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

TigerPackFund,

     I think a portfolio that is created in this way is likely to wind up with a bit of a market-neutral long/short.

     For example, my picks would likely be all long and my time horizon would be something like "if I go down 20% tomorrow who cares, the goal is to be up 100% in 1-3 years".

     The strategy of others is frequently shorter term and the outlook of others is very bearish.

      So say you attract several persons with a net-bullish outlook on the market and they offer stocks to green-thumb.  And then you attract several persons with a net-bearish outlook and they throw out some red thumbs (or green thumbs on bear ETFs or whatever).  The result MIGHT be a market-neutral long-short position whose performance is the net sum of the success of each contributor in picking stocks.

     Probably the portfolio will perform better relative to the market when the markets direction is down than it does when the net direction is up.  

     Just some guesses, let me know if you'd like me to pony up some picks.  

     And then if my contributions are to affect more than just me... I'd like to confirm that dividends AREN'T included in caps scores are they?

      If they were that would change the situation greatly.

CL

Report this comment

#37) On June 27, 2009 at 6:52 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

checklist34-

I absolutely want you to participate!  Your points per pick score is outrageously good.

I am being careful not to select contributors that are permanent bears, who are locked into that negative line of reasoning and thinking.  If you look at the first 30 picks in the TigerPackFund, the only red thumb so far is mine, with a bearish outlook on gold stocks.

I definitely do not want to have a large staple of bears AFTER a long multi-year bear market has ended.  That is why I am carefully reviewing each potential contributor's past record and current outlook of the markets.  Some of the "technical" trading crowd with high CAPS scores that I like, will be included, and they are mostly struggling to turn bullish.  In the end I am hopeful they will select more green thumbs as the market moves higher later in 2009 and early 2010.  The fact that this group has retained a high CAPS score during a monster upmove in the stock market highlights their abilities to pick individual sectors and equities "correctly" in this game.

My theory is that a truly gifted group will focus on different sectors and directions of thinking, but "as a group" they will more often than not be pulling the total score in the right direction week after week.  The success of TigerPackFund will largely depend on me finding the right band of brothers or characters as contributors.  I take this responsibility seriously and I am picking contributors very carefully, in a similar manner to the way I select stocks!

Yes, CAPS does deduct (adjust) paid dividends from your cost basis of picks.  I believe this activity is very advantageous to the long-term picking score of green thumbed, high dividend yield stocks.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#38) On June 28, 2009 at 2:21 PM, streetflame (31.26) wrote:

xposted to TigerPack's email:

 

I thought about it a bit more and decided I don't want to choose all 5 red thumbs - that would probably have too big an impact on the portfolio and isn't in line with my overall outlook right now.  (If you look at my CAPS page it's about 60% green thumb/40% red thumb.)  In the short term I expect a solid correction - right now we are seeing a rolling top across a lot of financials and commodity related companies, while other sectors continue to race up.  My long term views are similar to a lot of other people's - USD and Euro weakness, weak growth in developed nations, moderate growth in Asia and Latin America, and moderate commodity strength.  But I don't make aggressive macro, sector, or timing calls - 99% of the time I stick with fundamental analysis of individual stocks.  I mainly buy low PEG companies that also have strong book value, strong cash flow, and ideally pay dividends.  I mainly sell high debt companies that have are overpriced compared to sales and book with a long term possibility of bankruptcy.

My main portfolio is streetflame, allstar for about 4 months: http://caps.fool.com/player/streetflame.aspx
And my other portfolio is UltraContrarian, allstar for about a year: http://caps.fool.com/player/ultracontrarian.aspx

So here are my picks:
Short FHN, First Horizon Bank (losses 6 out of the last 7 quarters, declining revenue, needed TARP money, high debt, still trading above book value)
Short SYMC, Symantec (losses and declining revenue the last 2 quarters, high debt, increasingly heavy competition)
Long PSMT, PriceSmart (very low PEG, no debt, proven business model, lots of room for expansion in Latin America)
Long TKC, TurkCell (high cash flow, solid dividend, good growth prospects both within and outside Turkey)
Long QXM, Qaio Xing Mobile (trading well below cash value, very high free cash flow)

Like I said I think a lot of the commodity related companies have gone up too high too fast and in the next few weeks or months we may see better opportunities to buy coal, oil, natural gas, iron, steel and gold related companies.  That's why my picks are a bit light on them for now - just trying to stay hedged and not lose money.

streetflame

Report this comment

#39) On June 30, 2009 at 4:52 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

We have added several new contributors and numerous stock picks this week.

I am getting emails from new potential contributors each day.  Keep them coming!  The bigger the pool of Top Fools I can select from, the better our talent and score/ranking will be.

I think I have heard from 20 of the Top 200 players in the rankings, expressing interest in this project the last week and a half!

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#40) On July 01, 2009 at 12:42 AM, checklist34 (99.80) wrote:

tigerpack, i will do it, but i have to think long and hard about what 5 picks i'd liek to contribute.

tentatively, from the prices on the market today, i'd be tempted to

1.  include ARCC if we could include dividends, but I don't think the CAPS game considers divi's

2.  add MGM, but i'd have to thinka bout the risk/reward for a while.  Rumors of MGMs demise are quite likely considerably overrated, but... the stock could certainly move well down from here, and probably won't be catalyzed to the upside for some time

3.  RJET, i like their valuations and I like their recent aquisitions at fire sale prices, but I lack a broad understanding of the airline biz.

4.  ACAS.  now thats a high risk/reward, but I honestly think the upside going forward is pretty good.  frankly, if the CAPs game allowed us to pick it, i'd pikc one certain ACAS call option.  long term i think its a 2.5 bagger from here ... but its a play on both their capacity to negotiate/lenders willingness to talk, and the economy at large.  I LOVE THIS STOCK, its fascinating, but I wouldn't want to risk dragging down your portfolio so i'd have to think about it.  I'd throw MCGC in there with ACAS as well.

5.   CNO.  another stock that i think will live and triple, but its risky and i'd have to think about it.

also BZ come to mind.  DOW as a stable blue chip play, maybe AA as a stable blue chip play also.  CENX as an aluminum price/economic recovery play thats probably wildly levered to aluminum prices... but probably going to be a slaughterhouse in a prolonged deflationary environment.

USG i like at todays prices.

There aren't as many things to pick as there were 3 months ago.

3 months ago my largest holdings were ASH, XL, TCK, GNW, and ACAS.  But ACAS at 70 cents is basically free money, ACAS at 3.18 post-divi is a different story.  

I'll think about it, don't hestiate to remind me.  

 

Report this comment

#41) On July 01, 2009 at 8:37 AM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

checklist34-

I am shooting for high CAPS "accuracy" also.  Many of the picks so far, are kind of swinging for the fences in terms of outsized gains (CAPS points).  I am confident we will earn many points, but we need 80%+ accuracy to get in the Top 200 or 300 players in 6-12 months.

I would recommend contributors also consider some lower-risk, high probability selections of out-performance, to keep our accuracy high.  This part of the equation is very critical to our success.  I think AllStarPortfolio has had similar gripes about the homerun-type picks he is getting.  (I like your USG and MGM ideas, although both have higher implicit downside-risk than average right now.)

Accuracy scores in the 65% range would be positive, but 75%-80%+ would be even better for this project, to everyone's benefit.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#42) On July 09, 2009 at 8:18 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

TigerPack, I'm on your list of favorites, so I'm going to assume the invitation is still open for me.  I've chosen 3 green thumbs and 2 red thumbs to balance it out a bit.

NTE (3Y): Green thumb
PDS (3Y): Green thumb
OSG (3Y): Green thumb
AZO (3Y): Red thumb
PALM (3Y): Red thumb

I regret not joining sooner, because I'd rather have ESEA than OSG (that darn kaskoosek!).  However, I still like my other picks and am glad they haven't been taken yet. 

Report this comment

#43) On July 09, 2009 at 12:22 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

bullishbabo-

Can you email the picks so I have your address for future direct communications, and if I have any questions about your picks?  TigerPackFund@yahoo.com

Now is a great time to go long many stocks for the bull move that will continue well into 2010, in my estimation.  The TigerPackFund selections are struggling the last week to gain their sea legs, but I have confidence we have generated a solid list of excellent 6-12 month choices so far.

I actually bought some of the stocks in the real world picked by "others" the last few days of the sell-off.

Report this comment

#44) On July 09, 2009 at 4:22 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I was just looking through the current picks on the TigerPackFund....  I couln't help but notice that 4/5 of my picks are outperforming the S&P 500.  I think it would be fun to periodically see who in the pack is bringing home the bacon and who is consuming it...

My picks and score:

VLO -2.65

LNCR 7.56

CVH 4.01

VIP 1.98

CLP 6.95

Report this comment

#45) On July 09, 2009 at 5:28 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Yes, anticitrade you are holding your own.

I believe your selections are: CFK-LNCR-AMED-WCC-CVH.  Something like 80% accurate and +18 points.  Nice job.

I was hoping some of the "bears" would make selections BEFORE the latest 5%-7% market sell-off for better balance. I am in a holding pattern for those picks.

Considering the current group is mostly bullish players making the majority of picks, I am not surprised we are spinning our wheels.  Better days to come!

-TigerPack

 

Report this comment

#46) On July 09, 2009 at 5:40 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

That sounds right..  I didn't think VIP sounded familiar. 

I would love to provide some underperform picks, but based on my anticitradeshort portfolio, my system is unable to do it with any accuracy.  I would love to hear the process a red thumb expert uses for his picks.  Preferably if it was based on fundamentals.

anticitrade

Report this comment

#47) On July 14, 2009 at 12:15 AM, BigFatBEAR (30.14) wrote:

Glad to be a part of this project - great idea, Tiger, giving AllstarPortfolio some competition! I'm happy to have discovered it, even though I suspect that my position will be weeded out eventuallly by those with more experience/agility in the market.

Anyway, I have an idea that will drastically improve the quality of the picks here on the Fund. Make each individual picker responsible for replying to their pick with their pitch, and then ask them to update their pitches as necessary.

You said above that you were omitting pitches as a way to save yourself time (very understandable), and also to remove yourself from the responsibility of correcting/updating pitches. Why not let the CAPS big boys do it themselves??? That would make this portfolio an extremely attractive resource, at least in my eyes.

Since all the pitches so far are barren save for your link to the picker's CAPS profile, I'll take the initiative and at least copy what I wrote to you this morning when I pitched them to you via e-mail. The community SHOULD NOT be blindly investing based on highly-rated picks, which I feel is easier to do when there is no accompanying pitch. They should know the rationale, level of due dilligence, and also the risk:reward scenario involved with any given pick.

Just my 2 cents.

Oh, and lastly...    I'll take a 5-year outperform position on COP for this portfolio, with an entry at or below current prices (40). That is, if no one else wants to claim it. 4.5% yield plus a history of strong long-term technicals shouldn't be ignored.

-BFB

Report this comment

#48) On July 15, 2009 at 3:56 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

I wanted to give a big shout out to all my contributors - EXCELLENT job of picking stocks...

I bought a nice chunk of TBSI last week in the $6.50 range based on several of you listing the company with big green thumbs up.  I did some reserach on my own, and that company has real potential to double or triple the next 6-12 months.

I added most of the picks in this portfolio to my "marketocracy" mutual fund creation during the sell-off the last few weeks.  Today I am up 5% in a "diversified" list of 84 stocks!!!  Your smaller cap picks represent about 20% of the mutual fund practice, with the other 80% being the favorite stocks of yours truly, and I am happy to report it is up +10% after expenses, vs. a 5%-6% gain by the stock market averages since I started the mutual fund game 7 or 8 weeks ago.  Considering the wide diversification in my marketocracy portfolio, this 4%-5% OUTPERFORMANCE number is quite impressive, at least to me, over less than 2 months.

-Keep up the GREAT work

Report this comment

#49) On July 16, 2009 at 4:49 PM, Quantemonics1 (99.70) wrote:

Another solid day from our contributors.

I like to use a minus 10% (-10%) cutoff on my CAPS picks as being "hopelessly" lost in terms of turning positive for the game in the short run.  [Of course they may come back in time!]  Looking at our 57 or so picks, only 3 are lost causes at this point.  That is a substantially better showing than the AllStarPortfolio creation after a month or two.

If the shipping companies would have pitched in today, we could have had a terrific one-day number!

Another cutoff I use is the -5% and better showings (less than -5%) out of my negative picks currently.  From my experience the last year, many of my picks can turn positive in just a day or two from a -5% number!  Using this formula we have a good shot, with a bull run continuing of course, to reach 80%-85% accuracy soon.

We'll see if we can pull that off.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#50) On July 20, 2009 at 4:43 PM, Quantemonics1 (99.70) wrote:

Congrats to the group!!!

My marketocracy mutual fund "practice" account was up a solid +2.5% today, doubling the general market advance...

As I mentioned before, a good 20%-25% of the stock picks are those from the TigerPackFund project.  Plus, my extensive REIT holdings pulled their weight today.

Keep the faith!

Report this comment

#51) On July 27, 2009 at 3:39 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Another day, another dollar!

What is most impressive to me so far for the TigerPackFund creation, is our points per pick after just two months.  The next interesting result is the low number of stocks truly moving against the positive scoring recommendations.  With the big comeback in COT today, we really only have 1 stock out of nearly 60 picked that is having serious problems.  Amazing I think, considering the relative diversity in the group of stocks picked, including a decent number of red thumbed selections.

-Thank you contributors, Keep it up!

Report this comment

#52) On August 03, 2009 at 12:11 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

With bullishbabo's ascent into the Top 15, we now have 5 members (including portefeuille) out of the first page of rankings.

Keep the strong research and ideas coming, contributors.

Hopefully, we will get some picks soon from the 3 or 4 CAPS members listed on our Favorites list (who have expressed an interest to send picks eventually) that have yet to make up to 5 selections.

I think there are also some open selections available for several contributors.  Email me when you have a good idea.

-Thanks to all for participating

Report this comment

#53) On August 13, 2009 at 7:39 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Any thoughts about another blog post or something? I'd very much like to see a few more top players join, but this has been the only mention since the inception of the portfolio.  The only ones who've joined are likely those that followed the post the day it went up. 

I'm very happy with our talent pool, but I just wish we had more people.  A 99 rating would come a lot faster if we could keep 100+ picks open, right?

Report this comment

#54) On August 13, 2009 at 7:57 PM, portefeuille12 (< 20) wrote:

A new post is here.

Report this comment

#55) On August 13, 2009 at 8:36 PM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

I withdraw comment #54 above. 20minutedelay is one of my players and I confused this portfolio with the allstarportfolio.

Report this comment

#56) On August 14, 2009 at 2:22 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I agree with bullishbabo.  For this to really create value, their needs to be more communication.  Maybe we can even incorporate some of the drama that the "allstarportfolio" has cultured so well lately. 

Maybe we should challenge each others picks a little bit.  I will run them all through my model this weekend and see what spills out.

Report this comment

#57) On August 14, 2009 at 3:48 PM, Quantemonics1 (99.70) wrote:

I bought some FACT shares today in the low-$10 price range in several accounts, per portefeuille and BullMarketN09's agreement on its cheapness.

It is a biotech with roughly $350 million in net cash, trading at a $250 million market cap.  Given they are burning about $100-$120 million in R&D yearly on 3 or 4 promising drugs, with only $20-$40 million in annual "revenues," this spin-off company from another drug maker isn't exactly the profit machine Wall Street likes to bet on.  However, at $10 or less a share you are basically purchasing their product patents, drug discoveries, future revenues and profits, and leading researchers for FREE.

BullMarket has sent me some volume and money flow analysis on the stock trading the last 4-5 months and especially the last 3-4 weeks.  There are very few shares available at the sub-$10 price for sale, and his basic conclusion was that any GOOD news will quickly lead to a $15-$20 price.

I personally like the little cup and handle formation (if it holds $9.50 or so the next couple of months) and the estimate of the 200-day moving average showing up in another month in the $9-$10 range given a flat stock price until then (it has only traded as a separate company for about 180 days).

Given a solid news announcement on just one of its drug trials, FACT could be a big winner quickly on the reward side of the equation.  On the risk side, you have the huge cash cushion to fall back on, if the stock market overall takes a dive the next 3-6 months.

-Tiger Out

 

Report this comment

#58) On September 04, 2009 at 5:12 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Congrats to all of those lucky enough or smart enough to purchase FACT shares the last few months!

The takeover offer from Biogen for FACT helped the TigerPackFund get some groove back today.

An update on the mutual fund practice at marketocracy.com I set up 14 weeks ago (including about 25%-30% of the weighting in picks from the TigerPackFund, and another 70% or so representing my favorite ideas): we are up a solid +25%, after expenses, against an S&P 500 total return of around +15% during the same span.

Considering the mutual fund has included between 65-85 different stocks at any one time, well diversified across sectors and growth/value styles, large and small caps, this solid outperformance score after just 3 months is quite impressive, at least statistically from my vanatage point.

I am particularly satisfied that our "median" average outperformance number in the TigerPackFund is very near the "mean" average, around +5%.  What this is telling us, is that if you exclude a few of the best picks and the worst, the real "average" selection here is doing quite well, AND IS ACTUALLY OUTPERFORMING THROWING DARTS WITH OUR MONKEY FRIENDS.

On an annualized basis, using either the mutual fund or the TigerPackFund picks directly, equally weighted, we are looking at returns of +20% to as high as +40% BEYOND what the S&P 500 is doing, fully invested, if we can replicate the first 3 months every quarter going forward!!!

Keep up the great work contributors and see if you can't talk into some of the other top minds on CAPS into sending us their 5 best picks also.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

#59) On September 07, 2009 at 5:55 AM, portefeuille (99.75) wrote:

#8 I just checked how my "picks" have done. I calculated the relative change (in %) between the closing value on 09/04/09 and the closing value on 06/19/09.

EMC 22.67,
FACT 80.52,
SQNM 38.08,
EXEL 22.79,
LUK 8.91,

S&P 500 index 10.33,
average rel. change of those 5 "picks" 34.59.

So thanks to FACT not that bad.

Report this comment

#60) On September 07, 2009 at 11:22 AM, anchak (99.84) wrote:

My pick - its acutally Porte's - is VMW. He convinced me enough - and I have looked at it from a technical angle.

Its a correlated pick with EMC - but the share basis prospects for VMW are better.

Report this comment

#61) On September 07, 2009 at 5:17 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

Please email your picks to TigerPackFund@yahoo.com

I often discuss the selections before entering them on CAPS, via email.  Plus, other ideas for this CAPS creation can be debated more directly.  Start a new, free email account at Yahoo! or Google if necessary for privacy reasons.  Many of the current members have done so.

-TigerPack 

Report this comment

#62) On September 11, 2009 at 12:50 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

We added three more picks this morning, and closed-out three. 

I was reviewing some of our "old" closed-out picks today, and they as a group continue to do quite well.

For all 68 stocks, if you had just bought and held them after the recommendation here, you would have enjoyed an "average" of a +10% outperformance gain vs. the S&P500 over the 3 or 4 months of the TigerPackFund's existence.  That's not a shabby number, considering the rather broad diversification of picks, from different industries and market capitalizations, including green and red thumbs.

-Keep up the great work gals and guys!

Report this comment

#63) On October 01, 2009 at 6:04 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

The 6 red thumbs and the ZSL short silver really proved their worth today in the overall "hedged" TigerPackFund design we are generating for investors and readers on CAPS.

All 7 outperformed nicely today, and the other 45 or so green thumbs held up relatively well in the sell-off carnage of a 2.5%-3.0% daily decline.

Thanks contributors; give yourself a pat on the back.

Our total CAPS ranking actually moved HIGHER today, although we are largely LONG stocks, as a result of a few green thumbs entering net outperformance score territory and the 7 hedge plays!!!

Keep sending the best ideas you can dream up, and we will do just fine over a long period of time.

-TigerPack

Report this comment

Blog Archive

2010

2009