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alstry (35.03)

New York in Trouble??????

Recs

11

April 17, 2008 – Comments (6)

Half of Bear Stearns workers likley to lose their jobs.  Merrill cuttng 10% of its workforce.  Citi announcing cutting 20% of ALL spend.  Estimates are for about 35% of Wall Street workers to lose their jobs.

Many of these jobs were directly related to the easy money products of the past seven years.  Now that those products are gone, so is the revenues and the jobs.  We are likley talking about hundreds of thousands of jobs collectively once you factor support staff.  In addition, many of these are high paying jobs that can't be replaced.

First, just think about the office vacancy that will result.  Then think about the ability of many of these workers to service the lifestyle they have become used to and the effect.  Homes will have to be sold.  Visits to stores and restaurants will be curtailed causing hardship for the workers of those businesses.

Although I have not seen a credible study on the issue, one would have to think that hundreds of thousands of financial workers, IT workers, restaurant workers, retail workers, and those that provided other types of support will be affected.

Office vacancies will likely skyrocket.  Building values will plumment.  Debt will likely default.  Homes will get foreclosed.  Housing values will fall due to rising foreclosures and less demand. 

Remember, Citi is cutting 20% of ALL spend.  That will have a tremendous ripple effect in the economy.  Compound that by cutbacks at almost every major financial institution.  The fallout will likely be incredible to restaurants, retailers, apartment buildings, and a variety of other service businesses.

Just a guess, but by the end of the summer, the emotional well being of New Yorkers will be very different than it is today. 

In case you think I am just singling out New York, this trend to varying degrees is happening all over the country.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 17, 2008 at 6:59 PM, chk999 (99.98) wrote:

My suggestion is to buy canned goods and ammo, heavy on the ammo.

 

Or not.

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#2) On April 17, 2008 at 6:59 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

NO JOBS AND NO STUDENT LOANS.  A BUNCH OF UNEDUCATED UNEMPLOYED TEENS BEING CULTIVATED?

 

Teens turn to thrift as jobs vanish and prices rise
Thursday April 17, 3:30 pm ET     

By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer

OMG, this recession is so lame: As jobs dry up and prices rise, teens cut back on spending

NEW YORK (AP) -- The souring job market and rising costs of the usual teenage indulgences -- a slice of pizza, a drive to the mall, the hottest new jeans -- are causing teens to do something they rarely do: be thrifty.

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It's a far cry from the freewheeling spending of recent years, when teens splurged on $100 Coach wristlet handbags, $60 Juicy Couture T-shirts and $80 skinny jeans from Abercrombie & Fitch.

Now jobs for teens are less plentiful, and parents who supply the allowances are feeling the economic pinch themselves.

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#3) On April 17, 2008 at 7:30 PM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

What makes you think that the layoffs will be in NY? Sure enough, they will close some underperforming branch in Oklahoma or some home mortgage center in Fort Myers.

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#4) On April 17, 2008 at 7:57 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

GET READY FOR GOVERNMENT LAYOFFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's administration is seeking as much as $700 million in additional cuts to his $33 billion budget as slowing consumer spending and a weakening housing market crimp tax revenue.

``We're fighting a stone rolling downhill,'' Corzine said today in a Bloomberg interview. ``I think we are in a recession as we speak. I think it's deeper than the market reflects.''

The additional cuts amount to about 5 percent to 10 percent of the state's operating costs, Treasurer David Rousseau said. Corzine's administration has asked Cabinet agencies in recent days to suggest the reductions, Rousseau said. Those cuts won't be unveiled until at least mid-May, he said, when the treasurer goes before lawmakers with updated state revenue figures.

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE FACING AT LEAST 10% UNEMPLOYMENT BY THE END OF THE SUMMER. 

RIGHT NOW WE ARE AT 5% UNEMPLOYMENT.

WE ARE SEEING 10%, 20%, AND HIGHER CUTS FROM WELL CAPITALIZED EMPLOYERS IN A VARIETY OF INDUSTRIES.  IMAGINE THE CUTS FOR SMALLER COMPANIES.

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#5) On April 17, 2008 at 9:44 PM, dwot (97.03) wrote:

I think you are right.

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#6) On April 17, 2008 at 11:08 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

Man alstry.....you need to restrain yourself a little ..after such lucid albeit frenetic analysis on the builders..which prompted me to start following you....how can you come up with this kind of jingoistic stuff...

Yes lots of clouds are looming large ....and Unemployment is going to climb...maybe not to double digit...possibly 6-7% ( Official) and the SP can touch 1100 .....

 Just present your stuff a little passively...My 2 cents.....

 

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