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New York Real Estate Immune To Fundamental?



March 24, 2008 – Comments (6)

I am not sure where I was just reading in the past week or so a fantasy story about why New York's real estate won't go down.

News in the WSJ today is that 20,000 high paying financial sector jobs will likely be lost this year. 

Banks and brokerages account for almost 35 percent of all salaries and wages in New York City. 

These are high wages that have huge multiplier effects in the whole local economy... 

Profits down 80%...  There's going to be problems in the New York real estate market... 

Rents going up will be doubtful.  There's going to be more people co-habitating to help manage the financial challenges.

At least that's what see happening... 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 24, 2008 at 11:37 PM, dwot (28.92) wrote:

Well, US tax payers got taken to the cleaners with the rise in price for Bear Stern.  That is a direct transfer from tax payers to give some bail out to investors. 

The deal should have changed that since JP was paying 5x as much, the fed should have reduced its bail out to 1/5, or from $30 billion to $6 billion.  Seriously, why not just reduce the fed bailout another $5 billion and give Bear Stearn share holders $60, or how about reducing the bail out another $10 billion and then you could pay the Bear Stearn share holders the $170/share they were up to last year...

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#2) On March 25, 2008 at 12:20 AM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

In NY, we have a geniously organized shortage of housing. The Pope will sooner admit that atheism is a valid theory than NY building department will let you build anything above 6 stories. I expect nothing but doubling of prices in NY over the next 5-7 years.

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#3) On March 25, 2008 at 12:40 AM, dwot (28.92) wrote:

Market Ticker has a genine rant on Bear Stearns, and an imbeachment petition.

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#4) On March 25, 2008 at 1:35 AM, dwot (28.92) wrote:

I like this Thomas Palley piece on the fed's preferencial treatment of wallstreet.

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#5) On March 25, 2008 at 4:39 AM, DemonDoug (31.45) wrote:

escrooge, i agree with the RE racket - it happens in every city, but NY is particularly prone to manipulation due to the price people can pay.

I don't see how you can say prices will double though.  NYC has had downturns of flat to negative RE price appreciation in the past, and, may I remind you, this is the biggest bubble in the history of mankind ever that we are unwinding here.  I believe prices in NYC may hold up, but there won't be serious appreciation.  Places like the vaunted West Side of Los Angeles, which also has a shortage of housing compared to people who want to live there, is starting to tumble.  All the other boroughs of NYC are starting to go down.  So once again, I will disagree with your egregiously wrong opinion to come out on the right side again (come see me in 7 years we'll see where the median is :)).

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#6) On March 25, 2008 at 8:13 AM, dwot (28.92) wrote:

Doug, I'd agree 7 years is the time frame to check...

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