February 01, 2013
– Comments (7)
How do you guys feel about http://www.gurufocus.com/
Also do you guys think we are heading toward High inflation due to high debt and QEs (as brought out in the book Aftershock)?
Getting ideas for reseach from successful investors is a great place to start. But unless you do the digging yourself to understand why a company is doing well or poorly and what is likely to change and why, you'll make bad decisions. Different investors have different methods and timeframes and Buffett evaluates things very differently than Icahn. Know why they took a position and how long they are likely to hold it.
As far as inflation, what defines high inflation?
I find the guru stuff overwhelming, but you can get great ideas from seeing what other investors are looking at. Of course, their portfolios are going to be complicated usually, and you need to take that into account when deciding allocation (how much of your portfolio you want invested in one particular security).
CAPS is a great place to follow certain people who fit your style and risk tolerance.
A great thing about investing is that there are many different ways to be successful.
Don't listen to these guys that call for "hyperinflation", which is 50% a month or something like that. They are always gloomy...they always think the world is going to explode. Sometimes they are right, and they brag about it. When they are wrong, they keep saying they will be right one day.
Then on the other hand you have the guys who believe the fed knows what they are doing, and that our paper monetary system has no flaws. They too only think one way.
I guess if they always think they are right and I think they are stupid, who am I to say anything, without being just like them?
As our economy picks up, inflation will pick up. We started with X amount of money, and based off that X, we lent XY amount of money due to fractional reserve banking. Y was a big multiple, and shrank big time. When Y gets as big as it was before, we will obviously have much more inflation since X is much bigger than before. It is not going to be hyper, and the fed will probably raise rates by then to control it. But we will get pretty bad inflation at some point, probably 10% a year, but I doubt it lasts more than a year or two.
Fundamentally, I say gold should be worht $6000 +. But the charts look awful, so I don't know.
I have largely abandoned CAPS as of late, as I have become the CIO of a hedge fund, and CAPS ain't what it used to be, but I alwyas like to help new guys, as if it weren't for CAPS, I would still be stuck on new guy status
@Valyooo - as I have become the CIO of a hedge fund
Really! Congrats man. Remember our deal- if you become a millionare before me, your buying me 9.3 beers :)
When I first started investing one of the first things I did was read everthing I could by Buffett, Munger and Graham. That was very helpful, but ultimatley I came to realize that I don't get the deals they do and I was working with much less capital.
So I came up with my own investment style which is suitable to me, but would probably not work for others.
So basically I'm saying read as much as you can, but it's your money and your job to make it grow in a pesonalized style.
Best of luck in your investment journey.
Inflation should move higher than the typical 2-3% of the past two decades. How much higher will depend upon many factors including how aggressive the Fed is over the next few years.
I personally think core inflation will peak around 6%, with a fairly large margin of error (4-8% is my high probability range). 10% is a real possibility if the Fed favors growth over stable money, but I expect them to hit the breaks before things get that out of hand.
@ Harry- I didnt forget, hopefully we get there at the same time