News Cycle Timing - September Edition
Last month I engaged in the fools game of timing the market based on the news cycle and was able to generate a return that beat the S&P 500 by 9.72%.http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/getting-defensive-here/626063
The volatility in August was historic and I do not expect such wild swings to abruptly halt in September. Reviewing the strategy, I am prepared to take on this foolish pursuit for another month since I was right more times than not last month. Also, I feel that with swings of 2-3% commonplace, there is enough benefit if I can time it correctly more often than not.
I am not as defensive as I was last month, however I will almost definitely sell any strength today and tomorrow to head back into cash before the end of the week.
My feeling is the market is due for a short term bounce higher after the last few losing days. The decision this week is whether I want to hold equities through the end of the week or move to safety prior to Obama's job speech Thursday evening. I am going to stay invested until market close Thursday because I believe the rumors of more tax cuts could help the market rally here in the short term.
So to review, unless conditions change I am long large cap value until Thursday close. I am selling prior to Thursday's close in a buy the rumor, sell the news strategy.