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Next Bull Run Starts Late Today

Recs

20

February 24, 2011 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: TNA , FAS , SOXL

Most of you know that I'm a bear, but I'm not a perma-bear and I understand the power of psychology and greed in finance.  To that end, I am very confident that the last two days are merely a temporary aberration and after more selling today, the bulls will begin buying again.

Potential flaws in my bull theory are as follows:

1) The Republican led House can actually show a backbone and not extend the debt ceiling.  I see this as a very small risk.

2) Libya could stay in flux for weeks.  There is probably a 70% chance of this, but I believe this is already discounted by the market.

3) Saudi Arabia could begin to see protests.  This is highly unlikely, as the Sunni's view the Shiites in Bahrain as heretics.

4) Israel could do something provocative.  Zero chance of this.  U.S. has them doing exactly what it wants, which is nothing.

5) Bad economic news on economy. While there is a 100% chance of this, the psychology of investors today is still looking on the bright side.  Higher unemployment equals longer period of low interest rates.  Higher prices isn't inflationary as much as better chance at GDP growth.

Please comment if you see other potential flaws, but I'm going all in around 2pm today.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 24, 2011 at 8:44 AM, NEMnyWtch (< 20) wrote:

6) Not to duplicate #2, but I think more to the point that oil continues to "barrel" (pardon the pun) upwards at this pace for a matter of weeks.

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#2) On February 24, 2011 at 10:23 AM, nhlfanatics (< 20) wrote:

thanks, http://www.nhlfanatics.com/boston-bruins-c-11.html">Boston Bruins Jerseys

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#3) On February 24, 2011 at 10:23 AM, nhlfanatics (< 20) wrote:

thanks, http://www.nhlfanatics.com/boston-bruins-c-11.html">Boston Bruins Jerseys

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#4) On February 24, 2011 at 10:47 AM, jlmjlm77 (99.45) wrote:

 

I think the bulls may stay sidelined until the bears are confident again.  S&P 1050 June.  I have been 80-100% invested since March 2009 and now I have taken profits and closer to 50% invested until things calm down. 

 

 

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#5) On February 24, 2011 at 10:48 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

gutsy call man... 

I sure wouldn't mind if you were right about that.  

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#6) On February 24, 2011 at 2:22 PM, Momentum21 (94.64) wrote:

Good call so far... : )

2PM 

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#7) On February 24, 2011 at 3:52 PM, Pick1es (25.57) wrote:

I hope you're wrong but you're probably right. If the markets open higher tomorrow I'll buy some things

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#8) On February 24, 2011 at 10:55 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

so far taht was AWESOME!

may the market rip 10% higher so that you can bask, as you deserve, in the glory of this call...

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#9) On February 24, 2011 at 11:32 PM, awallejr (83.96) wrote:

Well people know me as basically a permabull, but I am not prepared to go "all in."  I am invested, yes, and am content to hold my positions since I really do like them long term (I define "longterm" as years). I want to increase my holdings, but I do want a bigger pullback than just 3% before I invest more.  I will just nibble or sell puts on things I like.

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