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Niall Ferguson: U.S. Fiscal Crisis Will Likely Occur Within 2 Years

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June 26, 2010 – Comments (10)

This is a must watch so please take the time to watch it in its entirety:

 












http://seekingalpha.com/article/211202-niall-ferguson-u-s-fiscal-crisis-will-likely-occur-within-2-years?source=hp_wc

Two years...got that. Probably one of strongest Harvard academics out there.

 What is your plan?

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 26, 2010 at 11:30 PM, Tastylunch (29.26) wrote:

 >>What is your plan? 

What is yours abit buddy?

still planning on staying stateside?

 

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#2) On June 27, 2010 at 1:38 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

He has been spot on with this crisis so far...I have no reason to believe he won't continue to be. 

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#3) On June 27, 2010 at 8:48 AM, abitare (39.45) wrote:

Tastylunch,

 I am staying here. I think it will be tough here, but worse in other places. 

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#4) On June 27, 2010 at 9:22 AM, abitare (39.45) wrote:

David Rosenberg: Yes, The DOW Could Drop To 5,000
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-is-dow-5000-really-possible-2010-6#ixzz0s3jv0Xdx

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-is-dow-5000-really-possible-2010-6

 

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#5) On June 27, 2010 at 11:00 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

+1 something to think about.

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#6) On June 27, 2010 at 11:56 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

This is totally off topic, but would anybody know why when I post a comment, another comment follows but is not seen.

this is a perfect example since on the main blog page it said 6 comments. when there should be 5. I veiwed the source but not being fluent in html I really could'nt figure it out. seems to be some sort of code following me around.

arbitare I'm so sorry that this happened on your blog, if any of the Caps players know about this stuff could you please help me out.

And if TMF could figure out who is doing this please hang them.

msftgev.  

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#7) On June 27, 2010 at 12:56 PM, TigerPack1 (97.91) wrote:

I hate to disagree, but when 19 out of 20 of the G-20 agree this weekend that slashing deficit spending now and over the next 3 years is the smartest course of action to stabilize the global economy...

The brunt of the financial crisis in America is more likely to hit in 2 MONTHS vs. 2 years down the road... Soros and others believe the latest sovereign debt contagion crisis began in early 2010, and we are already cascading toward a credit downgrade of Treasury bonds by September 2010.

2 years down the road, may in fact be wishful thinking!

-TigerPack

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#8) On June 27, 2010 at 2:02 PM, DarthMaul09 (29.73) wrote:

Binve's recent blog link:

Robin Griffiths Interview

agrees with TigerPack's time frame of 2 months as opposed to 2 years.  The question that I have to answer for myself:  Do I cash out in a month, taking my winning but being stuck with having to pay the capital gains tax this year or hold my position and hope that the fall is not as bad as the second wave of the 1930 depression?  For the first time, I think that paying the tax now may be a better option than not having any taxes to pay later, since I would have lost all of my capital gains, if Robin Griffiths' prediction comes true.

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#9) On June 27, 2010 at 6:57 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

good old Griffiths He is a technical analyst, so don't put to much faith into what he says, hehe ...

(just kidding. technical analysts tend to be drama queens though.)

translation of parts of this article from a German tabloid.

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The upturn in the German labor market continues! Allianz chief economist Michael Heise expects that the number of unemployed people will even fall to 2.8 million until fall of 2011. That would be 400 000 fewer than in May of this year. 
The chief economist of Europe's largest insurance company told Bild: "The labor market in Germany actually experienced a small job miracle. The unemployment number will probably fall to 2.9 million in November, and thus under the 3 million mark for the first time in two years . Until November 2011 the unemployment number could fall further to 2.8 million, even if the recovery slows down." 

Reasons for the positive development are especially "the clearly accelerating export, but also the increasing domestic demand," said Heise. In May, according to the Federal Employment Agency 3.24 million people were without jobs, and thus 217 000 less than last year.



...

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So we get the "Jobwunder" and you get the depression, hehe ...

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#10) On June 27, 2010 at 11:27 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

and another country that might not join the depression ...

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Japan Companies May Forecast Gain in Capital Spending

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey this week will probably show that companies’ reluctance to deploy record stockpiles of cash is diminishing as they become less pessimistic about the economic outlook.

An index of sentiment at large manufacturers will climb 11 points to minus 3 in June, according to the median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, the highest level since September 2008. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists. Companies will project their first spending increase in three years, the survey of analysts showed.

...

Businesses aim to boost spending by 0.9 percent in the year ending March 31, after planning cutbacks of 3.9 percent three months ago, according to the median estimate of 12 economists. That would be the first increase since fiscal 2007. The Tankan report is due on July 1 at 8:50 a.m. in Tokyo.

...

Companies will use record cash obtained from a “particularly rapid earnings recovery” to buy plant and equipment, said Ryutaro Kono, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “We expect cashed-up large manufacturers to show the strongest signs of an increased willingness to channel funds into new capital investment,” Kono said. 

...

The Tankan survey is also expected to show an improvement in non-manufacturers’ confidence. The sentiment index for large service companies will improve seven points to minus 7, also the highest since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in September 2008, according to the median estimate of economists. 

...

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