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Nissan Says Electric Car Is Sold Out for This Year

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May 26, 2010 – Comments (12)

 

So far so good for plug-in electric vehicle sales.  Nissan reported this morning that it has already received 19,000 pre-orders for the all-new Leaf in the United States.  That's very strong demand, but it remains to be seen how many people who have put down a tiny $99 deposit will actually follow through and take delivery of a Leaf.  Not to mention how many of the people who are interested in the car have the ability to charge it in their home.  Obviously people who live in apartments or the city very likely will not have a place to charge their Leaf.

Again for anyone who has not read my previous posts on this subject, I am not buying the manufacturers of these low margin electric vehicles, but instead I own stock in two major power companies (this is just one of the many reasons that I own utilities).  If Nissan actually delivers 19,000 Leafs (or is it Leaves...hmmmmmm) in 2011 that's 19,000 homes that will see their power consumption spike.  Ford estimates that the introduction of an electric vehicle to a household could cause its electricity use to double.  The initial beneficiaries of this trend will likely be power companies in California and other states that provide tax credits and infrastructure for electric vehicles, but if they catch on power companies across the country will see increased demand.

Nissan Says Electric Car Is Sold Out for This Year

Deej

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 26, 2010 at 11:19 AM, ElCid16 (96.25) wrote:

"The preorders for the Leaf include 13,000 in the United States, where dealers take a $99 deposit, and 6,000 in Japan."

The average house uses ~9,000 kWh per year.  Most electric cars are expected to use around ~3,000 kWh per year.  So by adding 13,000 Nissan Leafs (or Leaves), its going to be the rough equivalent of adding ~4,000 new homes.  I think over the past 10 years, we've averaged about 1,500,000 new homes each year.

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#2) On May 26, 2010 at 11:47 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Most electric cars are expected to use around ~3,000 kWh per year.

This number is obviously to small (by a factor of 10 or so (guessing)).

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#3) On May 26, 2010 at 11:56 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Okay, it obviously depends on the car. Tesla says it costs around 0.02 USD / mile, so 20000 mile/y would lead to 400 USD, so 3000 kWh seems right. But those Tesla cars are very light ...

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#4) On May 26, 2010 at 12:01 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

to small

too small

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#5) On May 26, 2010 at 12:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

The Roadster's efficiency, as of September 2008, was reported as 120 mpgge (2.0 L/100 km). It uses 135 W·h/km (21.7 kW·h/100 mi or 490 kJ/km) battery-to-wheel, and has an efficiency of 92% on average.

(from here)

-> 20000 mile/y * 1.6093 mile/km * 135 Wh/Km / 0.92 ≈ 3997 kWh/y.

 

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#6) On May 26, 2010 at 2:05 PM, TMFDeej (99.33) wrote:

If you don't want to take the potential to double power consumption that Ford mentioned at its NYIAS press conference at face value., let's play with some rough numbers on our own.

These are really rough numbers, but they show that you are likely underestimating the power consumption of the Leaf, dkilgour.

According to this article, 

Would you buy a Nissan Leaf?

It will cost an average of $2.80 to fully charge a Leaf.  The car gets 100 miles per charge, so that's a cost of  $0.028/mile to drive it.  Assuming an average number of miles driven of 15,000 miles per year (which is the industry standard), we're talking about a cost of  $420 per year to operate a Leaf.

The average home uses 10,000 kWh per year worth of power (link).  At an average cost of $0.11 per kWh, that's a total power bill of $1,100.  Adding $420 to that would be a 38% increase.

The power consumption of any person who buys a Leaf will jump by nearly 40%.  That's a huge increase.  The only question is how widely adopted will electric vehicles become?  I have absolutely no idea, but I can assure you that the first year's sales of the Leaf will only be the tip of the iceberg. GM is introducing the Chevy Volt around the same time and Ford is scheduled to introduce a number of plug-in vehicles by 2012.

Deej 

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#7) On May 26, 2010 at 2:15 PM, mhonarvar (< 20) wrote:

your complaining about spending $420 to operate a car for a year?

lets say your car takes about $30 to fill it...(420/30 =14)...im sure your going to fill it more than 14 times a year.

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#8) On May 26, 2010 at 2:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

you are likely underestimating the power consumption of the Leaf, dkilgour.

No, I think his estimate was about right (see comments #1-5 (and 6, hehe) above) ...

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#9) On May 26, 2010 at 3:18 PM, TMFDeej (99.33) wrote:

Who's complaining?  I was trying to calculate how much money will go directly to power companies rather than the oil companies.

Deej 

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#10) On May 26, 2010 at 3:34 PM, minorgod (52.98) wrote:

The same kinds of people preordering these vehicles are the same kinds of people putting solar panels on their roofs to cover the increased electricity demands.  There are new solar kits on the market that cost $1000-$2000 that can generate/store enough electricity to recharge a plugin hybrid. This represents a fairly insignificant expense for the average homeowner, especially one that can afford to preorder a new Nissan in the first place.

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#11) On May 26, 2010 at 4:56 PM, ElCid16 (96.25) wrote:

I don't believe anyone is complaining, Deej.  Being the environmentalist I am, I am looking forward to automobiles that will be achieving 200-300 MPG equivalent over the next decade.  My above statement was simply to highlight the fact that 13,000 Nissan Leafs coming to America's roadways weren't even going to add a drop to the bucket for utilities' revenue.  Even if 130,000 Leafs made their way to the states it wouldn't make a moderate difference.  I do agree that 10-20 years from now electric cars will provide a large increase in the electricity consumption of our country.

Port, being the self proclaimed scientist that you are, I'm surprised that you initially thought my number was off by a factor of 10.  Afterall, there's no way Nissan was going to try to pass off a car to the general public that consumed over 3 times the electricity of a typical American home.

[to be a smartass] he he...

In summary, however, I'd like to say that anyone who is willing to drive a car with a limited range, electric cars (financially, mechanically, and environmentally speaking) trump gasoline powered cars.  Especially when the sticker price eventually comes down.

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#12) On June 21, 2010 at 10:49 PM, BrandonPaulChevy (< 20) wrote:

sold out?that's nice..I guess they have done a good jobe. one thing that caught my attention also was the fact that this car has also good radiators.

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