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No Quick and Easy Fix for This Market - by Doug Kass

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August 17, 2007 – Comments (5)

This will scare you: 

  Since the housing market's collapse, cheerleading government officials, audaciously bullish strategists, investment bankers, commercial bankers and money managers, extrapolating economists and even irresponsible ratings agencies have felt the economy would not be affected. Skeptics were discredited (and forced to drink cheap tequila on the cold linoleum floor) because, in large measure, worldwide share prices continued to trace a pattern of nearly uninterrupted advances. They were all wrong; the economy has not been unaffected.

 Rest of the story:

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10373920.html

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 18, 2007 at 12:27 PM, ikkyu2 (99.33) wrote:

Wow, he quotes James Taylor's Fire and Rain.  Last time I heard that song, a really crusty homeless guy was singing it in a NYC subway stop while doing a little dance.  You could smell him 15 yards away.

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#2) On August 28, 2007 at 6:20 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Thank you for your kind comments on my score and my blog on crocks again. I was wondering if you have any thoughts on ATK and if you have and companies that make the smart missles and bombs. Airplains, Subs, Ships,Tanks,and the rest of what not. I want to revamp my port follio some and these are the area's I want to look into. Any thoughts? Thank you very much for your time. Lynda Q.

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#3) On August 29, 2007 at 3:36 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Thank you. This gives me alot of food for thought. What is your thoughts on FSLR AND STP. I like these stocks because if OIL goes up they wii preform better. What happens if IRAN attacks us? I think it might happen in Irack and Afganistan. Russia will side I think with Iran and France and Europe will go with us. I think that China will try and get everyone to settle down untill after the Olimpices but I don't think that they will be able to. I have watched Iran for 30 years and I listened to the hostages of the 70"s talk about Iran's President and he would have killed them all back then if he had been in charge, but he was not allowed to. This makes me think that if he was like that then, now that he is in controll how much stronger he is and how much havoc can he do now with the power he had gotten in the past few years? I am watching France for now and I doesn't look good. They are now talking war. Iran want's World Power and they have the oil to do it. What money I have is 25% stocks and 75% cash. I am using the Caps to test out my theories and if this is just a 10 to 20% correction then all that worked well then will work well now. I have only been doing this for less than a year so the resetting of sub prime so reminds me of the 70's and 80's. It all cycles. This is the best learning lesson I can have with out loosing any real money untill I learn enough to do it with real money and less mistakes. Thank you so much for all of your time and as for Crox I think I will use this as one of my Virtual mistakes as a lesson learned the hard way with out loosing to much money. If we do go into a World War would this be the beginning of the defense Run? I ask because as I watch Warren Buffett's portfolio it is looking more like a war time portfolio. The Rail's really make me think this. Thank you for all of your help and thoughts. Lynda Q.

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#4) On August 30, 2007 at 11:20 PM, abitare (89.43) wrote:

Your late to the party. STP, FSLR, defense and oil are very crowded trades. You have to be ahead if you want to outperform the market. If you cannot out perform just go with an ETF and sleep easy.

You could try and ride oil, FSLR or STP on the up trend, BUT USE STOPS.Both STP and FSLR are way, way overvalued, but they may continue higher. Use a stop loss on both either stock could lose 50% in a day.
Look at Heelys (Hlys), it lost 50% in a day, with little fundamental changes. 

The market is expecting war. Defense, oil, commodities are way and the dollar is way down.  You can still ride these on the up trend, but use stops. 

The fundamental problem in the market is leveraged hedge funds, may begin to deleverage and bring down the over all market.  

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#5) On October 05, 2007 at 4:16 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Well it has been awhile and I was wondering how you are doing. I have add you to my favorites and I hope you do the same for me. Well, take care and let me know what you think of my account now and do you have any hints? Rock on. Lynda

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