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No Volume Whatsoever, Never forget the S&P 500's P/E is over a Hundred!!!!!!!!

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November 17, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

No Volume Whatsoever

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/17/2009 15:40 -0500

The market is dead, with only Cyborg algos trading amongst themselves, as is the norm lately. No reason to even comment on this. Nobody wants to sell courtesy of moral hazard, and nobody wants to buy courtesy of 100x P/E. Can we just call it a stalemate and all go home. This is getting really stupid. (oh and note the volume "accumulation" of days in which the market was up. Yeah, exactly). »

Read more here

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/no-volume-whatsoever


5% Of U.S. Taxpayers Account For 60.6% Of All Tax Revenue, 47% Will Pay No Federal Tax In 2009 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/17/2009 14:15 -0500

Federal Tax Mint pay Revenue Stock Market Tax Revenue taxes An interesting observation courtesy of Mint: of the 307,868,280 Americans out there, which compose 151,485,000 tax units, 46.9% will have zero federal income tax liability in 2009. Brilliant plan to keep the country happy: the poor pay no taxes, the rich get a massive stock market bubble to sell into, and the disappearing middle class...well, they can pay $20 for a hotdog and beer combo in Prague on that once-every-five-years vacation.

Read more here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/5-us-taxpayers-account-606-all-tax-revenue-47-will-pay-no-federal-tax-2009

BREAK ---------------------

in Oct I wrote about the S&P 500's P/E of 140 (Ref:

Stock Bulls are Going to get Hit Hard. S&P P/E = 140

October 06, 2009 – Comments (12) |

According to Standard & Poor's, the price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 on September 30 rose above 140. Investors were paying over $140 for each dollar's worth of reported earnings. Given the fact that this ratio has never before reached 50, this is a P/E mania like no other in stock market history.)

 

S&P no longer publishes the P/E on their website. 

Wonder why not?

Let me answer, because it should scare the (^*&^(**^*&(^%$@#$!#@$ out of you!

 

 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 17, 2009 at 11:53 PM, ozzfan1317 (78.75) wrote:

He has the same name as the guy from fight club epic fail..lol

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#2) On November 18, 2009 at 12:09 AM, floridabuilder2 (99.31) wrote:

Alls I know is I have been holding a small short ETF index position since late Spring and I am a long ways off from break even.  I can't even imagine how much money I would have lost if I was fully engaged in investing and shorting.  If I learned anything about the market in the last 3 years it is never fight a big trend.  Until the market actually starts trending down for several weeks the bulls still have control.

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#3) On November 18, 2009 at 12:18 AM, Tastylunch (29.36) wrote:

ozzfan1317

I think you might want investigate what zero hedge is first before rendering that opinion.

floridabuilder2

yup

the old trusims

don't fight the tape and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Have never more true than they are right now.

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#4) On November 18, 2009 at 8:56 AM, Gemini846 (47.03) wrote:

This investing advice is spot on, the problem is trying to figure out when it's going to end or at least come back into some kind of normal, and then wondering what that will look like.

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#5) On November 18, 2009 at 9:22 AM, topsecret09 (44.12) wrote:

  The BANKS are the only ones left In the market,using their free money to trade the stock market. The OVERALL MARKET has been going DOWN for months,especially small-caps...  The portfolio that I use to track the market Is going nowhere fast. In a typical bull market most ALL STOCKS PARTICIPATE,not just a handful of them. More smoke and mirrors...........  TS

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#6) On November 18, 2009 at 5:37 PM, rexlove (99.57) wrote:

I posted a blog on this subject before but it bears (no pun intended) repeating. See here:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=268978&t=01009152397440551586

Actually the S&P website does update it's values quite regularly. They have a spreadsheet that you can find here:

www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

If you look at this spreadsheet you would see that the current S&P P/E is around 84. This is based on a rolling estimate of the last 4 quarters. This includes the terrible 4th Q 2008. Once you eliminate that quarter and look at the P/E for FY 2009 the PE is a very reasonable 23. Not looking so bad after all - is it????

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#7) On November 18, 2009 at 6:10 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

rex,

Is a P/E ratio of 23 reasonable?...considering that fact that revenues are dropping dramatically?  Even if revenues were increasing modestly, I would say the market is slightly overvalued.  Many companies have beat low earnings estimates, even as revenues have declined, but that leaves uncertainty surrounding future earnings.  If earnings don't continue to grow on cost cutting (or on increasing revenues), you could argue that the market is very overvalued with a P/E ratio of 23.  I'm not saying that the market is going to crash, but contracting consumer credit and a prolonged period of elevated unemployment (among other factors) changes how I look at P/E ratios.

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#8) On November 19, 2009 at 7:47 PM, rexlove (99.57) wrote:

I think an S&P P/E ratio of 23 is quite reasonable. It's the average PE over the last 20 years. And given the low interest environment and a predicted rise in S&P earnings estimates for next year I think we support a P/E multiple of 30. Back in July Goldman Sachs was predicting S&P earnings of $75 next year and $52 for the current year (which is not too far off). If accurate the forward P/E multiple is a lowly 14-15.

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#9) On November 19, 2009 at 9:33 PM, abitare (43.81) wrote:

 rexlove,

Good luck, with all those dreams...during the depression P/E was 6-8. Guess what is coming?

Quoting GS???? Are you kidding? 

Do you quote NAR on real estate to? 

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