February 01, 2011
– Comments (11) |
RELATED TICKERS: C
John Paulson made $5 billion personally last year; you'd think people might be interested in his outlook for stocks.
The most successful or the most cynical? Or is it one and the same these days? First he bet on the housing bubble collapse and then on bailout of financials. These big macro bets require not only the ultimate knowledge of the whole rotten system but also very good timing which normally seem to be the result of being very well informed .
You yourself said you don't agree with his assesment of equities. I'm sure there are a lot of skeptics.
Historical returns are no promise of future returns.
The "ultimate knowledge"? Is that like the philosopher's stone?
Paulson/ Pellegrini based their bet on publicly available data. Read The Greatest Trade Ever before making slanderous insinuations that have no basis in fact.
I disagree but I'm still interested to hear what he has to say.
I apologize for the heated response. I come across so many insinuations/ accusations/ conspiracy theories regarding investors like John Paulson for which the author can produce no evidence -- this becomes very frustrating in the long run.
I hope you will follow my suggestion to read The Greatest Trade Ever to gain a better understanding of the genesis and the implementation of the trade that Paulson put on against subprime mortgages.
The guy has more money than God and makes it off government bailouts, not equities. Why should he care what equities do? He doesn't have to be right about them.
#4 - I am not convinced that he didn't have insider knowledge. The world of hedge funds and money managers is not open to outsiders and there is info in there, they all know who is doing what and that gives them an edge. We only hear about it 2 years later in a book and honestly I don't know that it is all truth. But it really doesn't matter to me and I don't take any of it personally. I understand that a trade you can put it as a hedge fund is completely different from what you can put as an individual. I did follow some of hios trades ( holding my nose at the smell). I did buy C because both Paulson and Soros were knee-deep in it. I made something like 20% on it. I am sure I would've felt on the top of the world if I put a few billions in it vs. a couple thousands.
My lesson from the Paulson trade, and I don't take a credit for the lesson, I read it somehwere and it stayed with me - you always have to take some low probability/ high risk/ high payout trades among your safer trades. It is those high risk trades that bring the biggest payout, you just ahve to spread them enough so that you don't lose your shirt on them if it doesn't work out. In the end , though, it comes down to timing - how do you get timing right? I don't know. I never get the timing right.
"The guy has more money than God and makes it off government bailouts, not equities."
No-one who is minimally familiar with Paulson's background and Paulson & Co.'s operations would make that statement.
If I made $5B personally last year, I'd be retired by now, zipping an alcoholic beverage in a hammock on a tropical beach!