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Varchild2008 (84.20)

Not liking MSC Industrial Direct's earnings report



July 02, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MSM

*WARNING*  I am biased in that my stake of 60 shares was slashed yesterday in half to 30 on the premise of expecting a bad earnings report.  So take this opinion with a grain of salt.

But, I guess I have great trepidation here seeing the share price go up over this earnings report.. I have enough CASHOLA to just buy back what I sold (stomache the loss given that the share price is higher) and probably gain some additional shares.

However, MSC Industrial Direct's forward looking earnings estimate was below expectations.
Last time I checked a good earnings report MUST have a good forward earnings expectation, not just a Top Line Earnings beat in the previous quarter.

I still stand by (MSM) as a great long term investment.... But I don't stand by the stock being priced at $37.00+ at this time.  There needs to be evidence of actual growth coming around the corner rather than the mere *hope* that there will be..

I guess HOPE and CHANGE doesn't work me!   So, I'll wait this one out and see if the Share Price drops to a $34 handle before I step in and scoop.

The only loss is not much.. If the share price never drops to an inviting level... I GAIN MONEY off of still owning 30 shares..... If the share DOES DROP... then great.. I'll buy more aggressively and hopefully in time to collect on the Dividend at the end of this month.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 02, 2009 at 11:58 AM, Varchild2008 (84.20) wrote:

Wow!  I guess the investment community agrees with me... I better step in and clarify a few things...

It is a GOOD thing to see MSM beat earnings estimates and keep roughly things in-line.... Revenue was below estimates for the next quarter though.... The EPS range is about 1 penny weighted to the down side of the EPS expectation of 36 cents.

33 to 37.  There's more room for a miss here.

*hence* why HOLDING and being CAREFUL is warranted.

The long term future of MSM is as the C.E.O. describes though... It is a great one.... But, MSM is not justified just yet to be trading in a range of $37 - 40.

I wish it was.... I gain money either way up or down on this one right now...  So... I don't care where the share price goes..

Of course if I see this get hammered down far too hard to $34.99 or less... I'll step in and buy some shares.

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#2) On July 02, 2009 at 12:09 PM, Varchild2008 (84.20) wrote:

*Update*  I sold the rest of my stake in MSM.

This one never was one of my Long Term Buy and Hold (CORE) stocks anyhow.  BUT... would like to jump back in at a cheaper price next week.

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