October 31, 2008
– Comments (4)
My crystal ball says 11,109 on Nov 7 the following Monday will be the start of a decline to 6,700. After the panic it will come back to 8500 and will average there for a long time. What’s you bet.
I don't understand how such a scenario would be justified. If the market bumps to 11,000 what possible bad news would then make it tumble down to 6,700 that we don't already expect now?
Most already expect 2009 to suck, it is just a question of degree. You've seen a bounce back off the lows as it should have because there really were too many bargains. I am hoping for a Dow 10k with a float between 9k-11k, but if the recession proves deeper and more pesky then yeah 8-9k range again.
Wall Street dose not want to miss out on the buying opportunities that follow crashes. They spring into action at the first sign of recovery. The fact is the recovery is much further off then the 35 year old Wall Streeters realize. Their greed will make them over react to good news and fear will make them over react when reality sets in. Another way to look at is previous crashes, they use to happen in days this is a slow motion one. I have seen a pattern in the past of first a crash then bounce up 50% of loss then crash again even lower. I think we are in the bounce before the final crash. If I’m wrong I’m wrong, but if Nov 7th you see 11,109 on the dow whats the harm with selling some of your stocks.
I can see that.
The media and wall street in general are idiots. We are not heading into a recession. It started in January of 2007.
The only reason you are seeing a massive cut back on consumer spending is due to the liberal media selling the "shock and awe" to the average person on the street. There are millions of people like me out here in consumer land who do not owe more than our home is worth. We have no credit cards or perhaps one card that is not maxed out. We do not have four gas guzzling behemoths parked in the drive way with 700 dollar a month payments. We own two three year old compact cars we paid cash for.
The over bloated price of houses is coming down. Credit is hard to get so people are spending within their means. Fuel prices are dropping. The job market is tight which is a good thing. It weeds out the slackers so companys will perform better.
The recession is ending , not begining. If the goverment will leave the rate alone and stay out of the way it will all be over with by March and the economy will be ok. Sadly the goverment will not leave things alone and will make it worse. Banks do not lend money at 4% and below. They make no profit in doing so. The fed needs to raise the rate back to 3% , not lower it.
DOW at 9,500 ceiling and 8,000 bottom. The upper limit will be broken and move to 10,000 by April if the goverment doesnt mess things up.