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gnulaw (51.95)

NOVL Is?/Should put itself in play with IBM, SUNW, SAP, ORCL, CRM...?



July 28, 2007 – Comments (0)

From June 11 post

Three compelling NOVL Acquirors:Historical Tipping Point?



It is hard to believe this scenario is not in the making (as of now, post GPL3 fallout, Q2 2007, MSFT alliance...) as this combination simply offers superior competitive advantages, esp. on the heels of a NOVL acquisition of Xensource. Each of these companies have a compelling reason if not an obligation to their own shareholders in maximizing shareholder value, esp arguably SUNW.

SUNW is just too obvious.
SAP viz-a-viz (ORCL-RHT) would make Ellison nuts, or more nuts, and ??
IBM, also obvious.

There simply are not many crown jewels of this magnitude available, again, esp where we are historically.

All 3 scenarios seem likely, indicating a bidding war would ensue, or not :) 


From my May 26 post

Novell files at market close Friday May 25, 2007 FORM 10-K fy 2006 ending Oct 31, 2006, Q1 2007 ending January 31, 2007...NOVL in play with IBM, RHT about to go set? ref/

From my January 2007 NOVL pitch

[UPDATE] Market is currently valuing NOVL at $7.25/sh or $2.51B. A more accurate definition of market value or shareholder value is the Present Value of NOVLs future cash flows discounted at a rate of a risky asset = (risk free interest rate + inflation premium + risk premium (systematic risk)). Since NOVLs cash flows are unknown and whose quarterly revenue growth is currently negative <-16.3%> arguably NOVLs most realistic and most optimistic valuation is its [current] $1.8B cash position (as of 01/31/2007) and SuSE linux [potential], which makes NOVL more attractive as a short-term perceived value takeover play/LBO for someone like IBM, SUN in the short-term. There is no reason for this stock to spike before May 30th esp given the stock option expense (management/Director track record) smoking gun, although that is a non-recurring expense and should theoretically be discounted as to its significance to shareholder value going forward. NOVL shareholder value (stock price) will be played like a violin until May 30th in the short-term and then until they can provide a mgt team who can provide q over q revenue/earnings growth where its sustainable growth (ROE * (1-div payout ratio)) is > its cost of capital.

Bottomline: NOVL is a takeover play in the short-term and possibly a longer-term play if it can provide quarterly numbers which blow away the street unlike RHTs ($4.15B Market Cap) recent numbers. RHTs $4.15B MC further arguably suggests that NOVLs upside even with news (revenues, profit margins, cash flows...) as good as RHT is appx. $12/sh, which also represents a fair/appx. value as its short-term takeover price.


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