NOVL tech analysis: Management Overbought and Shareholders Oversold?*
NOVL broke below both its 13 and 50-day ema http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/d... interesting stochastics, trending to oversold, MACD not holding upward trend but bottomline ---> management appears to be overbought and the shareholders oversold. One has to feel for Nat and Miguel. Truly exceptional individuals and developers. Jaffee, Dragoon et al? appear to simply be out of touch with reality (figments of their imagination, legends in their own mind?) as is substantially the BoD except for possibly Ron Hovsepian, but his hands are tied given the current structure. Shareholder value will remain elusive unless they put NOVL in play now, again, given this management/BoD structure. NOVL has everything they need (see Points 1-7 below) but the only thing that is standing in their way is NOVL itself, their management/BoD...
1. SOFTWARE REVIEW SUSE Linux 10 Nov 14 2005 Average Member Rating, 9, SPECTACULAR http://reviews.zdnet.co.uk/software/0,10...
2. "Novell launches next-generation Linux desktop" March 9 2006 "...Then, once companies realize how painlessly they can integrate a Linux desktop into an enterprise dominated by Windows, the trend to use Linux alongside or to replace Windows in the enterprise should catch fire by 2008, Jaffe said.
"I don’t think mass migrations will come until 2007, maybe 2008, but this is the year to really prepare for it," he said..."
3. "Novell: New SUSE desktop ready for enterprise desktops en masse", March 9 2006
"...Infoworld’s Elizabeth Montalbano reports that this isn’t just any old version of desktop Linux. It’s the one that Novell believes could easily displace Windows en masse in enterprises..." http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=2689
4. "Get ready for the Vista/SUSE smackdown!", May 30 2006 "...I don't see how you can call it as anything except a technical knockout by SUSE. Performance, features, price -- you add it all up and the challenger looks great.
Windows will still be the operating system on the most desktops in 2007, of course. But, I think it's quite possible that more users will buy, download, and install SUSE than those who will buy and install Vista.
Microsoft will trumpet how many people now have Vista -- because the computer vendors will have little choice but to install Vista on their new systems -- but if you look closely at what users do about upgrading their existing systems, I see the Linux desktop, and SUSE, in particular, pulling ahead of Vista..."
5. "BATTLE FOR THE DESKTOP Head To Head: Can Novell SUSE Linux Take On Microsoft Windows Vista?" June 9 2006 "...BOTTOM LINE The basic question here is, can solution providers count on Linux to fill the gaps? The simple answer is yes.
SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop 10 has the feature set, compatibility and flexibility to meet the needs of most corporate desktop users. What's more, at a price point roughly one-tenth of what Vista and Office 2007 will cost, SUSE Linux becomes harder to ignore..." http://www.crn.com/software/188703320
6. SuSE Linux Enterprise Desktop 10 is the compelling alternative to Windows Vista "SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop 10 gives business users new reason to consider Linux for enterprise desktops" - Infoworld June 27 2006 http://www.novell.com/products/desktop/c...
7. "InfoWorld Honors SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop with 2007 Technology of the Year Award", Jan 4 2007
"...The InfoWorld award is the latest significant honor for SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop 10. It was named "Best of Show" and "Best Desktop Solution" at August's LinuxWorld in San Francisco, and Novell's Nat Friedman received the first-ever VARBusiness "Technologist of the Year" award in October for his role in developing the innovative Linux desktop. InfoWorld's annual awards recognize the top technology sectors that matter most to enterprise IT, as well as identify the best and most innovative enterprise products that have fundamentally altered the IT landscape. Winners are selected by InfoWorld test center analysts based on innovation and effectiveness..." http://news.thomasnet.com/companystory/5...
8. Ubuntu pulls an end-run around SuSE Linux and incumbents..."Shuttleworth: Dell will expand Linux PC lineup" July 27 2007 "...Dell will soon offer more personal computers that use the Linux operating system instead of Microsoft Windows, said the founder of a company that offers Linux support services.
Mark Shuttleworth, who created a version of Linux software named Ubuntu, said Dell is happy with the demand it has seen for Linux PCs that were introduced in May.
Dell, the world's second-largest PC maker after HP, now offers three consumer PCs that run Ubuntu Linux.
"What's been announced to date is not the full extent of what we will see over the next couple of weeks and months," Shuttleworth said an interview late on Wednesday.
"There are additional offerings in the pipeline," he said. Shuttleworth founded Canonical to provide support for Ubuntu Linux.
A Dell spokeswoman, Anne Camden, declined comment, saying the company does not discuss products in the pipeline.
She added that Dell was pleased with customer response to its Linux PCs. She said Dell believed the bulk of the machines were sold to open-source software enthusiasts, while some first-time Linux users have purchased them as well.
The Linux operating system is seen as the biggest threat to Microsoft's Windows operating system..."
*qed? How do you blow points 1-7? or have they? If they have put NOVL in play [now]. The Annual Meeting is August 30th where the entrenched Board of Directors are requesting reelection. Said BoD and entrenched management have simply failed to create shareholder value.
notes: ** Microsoft has [recently] announced it is releasing WindowsXP [SP3] apparently in an effort to extend XPs lifetime/support. Dell has also recently announced it will be bringing back WindowsXP as an option for certain consumer PCs amid significant consumer demand.