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alstry (35.03)

Now this is a TERMINAL FLU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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April 27, 2009 – Comments (11)

"At present, Scania foresees no change in the demand for vehicles in the coming quarters," said CEO Leif Ostling.

The drop in demand results in a 70% fall in order books during the quarter to 6,061 units, with sales down 28% to 15.86 billion kronor.

The biggest drop in demand was in Central and Eastern Europe, where Scania said it received just 230 new truck orders -- a decline of 94% compared to the 3,713 orders it received a year earlier.

Operating margin also shrank to 3.2% from 16.4% as the group cut employees and reduced working hours for its remaining staff.

70-94% Drop in Truck Orders.........Now that is a Serious Illness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Prepare.......For the Right Disease...........The FU Virus is now a WorldWide Epidemic.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 27, 2009 at 11:59 AM, ralphmachio (23.67) wrote:

As any fool knows, the secret underground lab scientists have been working on mixing bat and pig DNA, and this swine flew is obviously an unintended consequence. 

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#2) On April 27, 2009 at 12:04 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

If that is the case Ralph......then you would think this Bloomberg story would be grabbing more headlines:

Rats Feed Off U.K. Recession as Trash Mounts, Buildings Empty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- For British rats, the worst of times has turned out to be the best of times.

The vermin more associated with the Dickensian era than modern Britain are thriving, with shuttered shops and half-built housing sites to live in, rotting piles of uncollected garbage for dinner and fewer exterminators sent out to kill them.

“Sometimes I drive into the car park and there are at least 20 of them in the bins,” said Paul Hood, 46, a north London resident. “You see them running away in the headlights. During the day, they just sit in the bushes sunbathing.”

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#3) On April 27, 2009 at 12:15 PM, JibJabs (94.32) wrote:

Poor taste as ever, Alstry. People are dying from that flu and your flippant use of its name is disrespectful. What happened to the person that began a post "we have a debt problem..." THAT was a useful post.

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#4) On April 27, 2009 at 12:50 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

JibJabs,

Where are people dying from the flu???  The only place I am aware of is Mexico city where somewhere between 20 and 100 people have died from the flu in the past week. 

Mexico City is the most populous city in the world and it is now flu season there.....my guess is that the number of people that have passed away from the flu in Mexico City in the past week would be consistent with the number that have passed away in similar weeks for the past twenty years within a normalized standard deviation.

Now where is your concern for the millions being affected by the FU virus which as you know I am very concerned about.  The World Bank calls it a "calamity."

Now, what are you saying about poor taste......and by the way.....terminal in the title above referenced truck terminal as Scania is a truck manufacturer....but obviously you were too intent on attacking me for an issue you seemingly know very little about to see the perspective correctly.

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#5) On April 27, 2009 at 1:12 PM, JibJabs (94.32) wrote:

Good God you are arrogant.

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#6) On April 27, 2009 at 1:18 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Guilty as charged.  Arrogant...but caring....vs. Ignorant and uncaring......I will gladly take the former anyday the week.....and I have room for improvement as well.

May I suggest you start to focus in the FU virus...it has a much greater probability at this point of affecting you and your family.

If you choose not to it's OK.....all I can do is warn.

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#7) On April 27, 2009 at 1:42 PM, wrparks (66.35) wrote:

Alstry, might I suggest you read Nassim Taleb's "Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbably". 

Simply put, Taleb shows that reliance on a normal distribution is at the root of our problems, since the outliers are far more likely to have a higher impact on our life than the things fitting the normal distribution.  In much the same way, before the financial crisis, the odds were against a major depression since those are rare or fat tailed distribution events.  Models were built upon this normally distributed world, without accounting for what was believed to be impossible, or highly improbable at the least. 

So, since people believed they had an understanding of the risks involved (they didn't), they risked much more than would have been allowable under more accurate models.  Unfortunately, the improbable often is quite probable in the fat-tailed distribution world.

Honestly, I would say a true pandemic flu would trump a  market crash, even one this severe, since market crashes are much less likely to leave you dead in the modern world.  Of course, this may not be, indeed, probably isn't a pandemic flu.  Probabilistically speaking, as you phrase it, this most likley is not a pandemic flu resulting in 20-40% deaths.  But, there is that whole fat tail distribution...........

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#8) On April 27, 2009 at 1:49 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Actually, both Nassim and I predicted this financial crisis.

Little doubt a true pandemic issue would trump EVERYHING.

If this flu were truly something to be concerned about for pandemic purposes....we would already be counting thousands dead and not a few dozen in an impoverished city.

I am not trying to make light of this....simply put it into mathematical perspective.

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#9) On April 27, 2009 at 2:15 PM, wrparks (66.35) wrote:

I think that is where we disagree.  I doubt we would yet know if this is the next true pandemic.  We know this is a major recession, perhaps depression.  Epidemiological data is no more easily modeled than economic data.  Now in two weeks, yea I agree, we will know.

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#10) On April 27, 2009 at 2:29 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

We don't need the next few weeks.  Enough time has passed.  Not a single person who has contracted the virus who lives in the industrialized world has not recovered from the illness.

And recovered fully!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is more a poverty issue and not an uncontrollable pandemic virus issue.  Now if you want to discuss poverty and its implications......now we are talking about a more serious virus....A MUCH MORE SERIOUS VIRUS.....call the Alstrynomics FU virus.

Of which by the way, regarding the FU virus, Alstry is probably one of the most experienced experts on the subject.  As a child he was toted around by his parents around Africa dealing with that exact issue....but most of his memories are in pictures....but many discussions were had at the dinner table in later years.

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#11) On April 28, 2009 at 11:01 AM, Rehydrogenated (32.56) wrote:

It is entirely probably that the swine-flu virus was a direct result of massive cost cutting as a result of the FU virus both at the business level and the personal level. Cleanliness takes a back seat when you or your company might go bankrupt. And who can afford a good doctor or to take time off at the first sign of symptoms when you might lose your job?

These two viruses are very related and they both make the other stronger the longer they last. Both need to be dealt with ASAP.

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