Numero Uno? Vicino...On Gold
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall. Better it is to be of an humble spirit with the lowly, than to divide the spoil with the proud.
In this game of CAPS, the Space Invaders of Stock picking, I achieved the high score, again today. I passed SPECBEAR, momentarily. Usually by the time I write something boastful or provide some recommendation, I get crushed.
My Best example was Proud to Be Long SKF, posted on 18 SEP. Just before King Henry, banned short selling. But the tyranny, may not go unanswered as James Kunstler points out here:
"I think it has already begun with the inquisitors summoning the shifty Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers -- but there are hundreds of other characters like him out there, who scored untold millions of dollars in activities that were simply grand swindles. I wouldn't be surprised if, eventually, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson found himself in the dock to answer how come, when he ran Goldman Sachs, there was a special unit in the company dedicated to short-selling the very mortgage-backed securities that another unit in the company was so busy pawning off to every pension fund on God's green earth."
My updown.com portfolio under: abitarecatania, is up 100% in 8 months?
Like comedy, timing counts in CAPS and the market. I have been ahead and my timing has worked out. I abandoned my long commodity positions mostly in May 08 to hold at 4-5K in points.
My fellow fools, who held on commodities enjoyed a "blow off top" and a crushing sell off from commodities. My timing was lucky, but early here: REF:
My post on 27 May 08: The Upcoming Top Fool Will Be a Commodity BEAR
May 27, 2008 – Comments (27) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , OIH , SLV
"When the commodity bubble pops, like the DeathStar explosion, you had better be clear."
So where is it going? Not sure really, time span is really unknown. I really have no idea. Who does? Legislative risk is a new calculation, who has added it in their portfolio?
I expect deflation unto possible latter hyper inflation, based on the CURRENT "Wallstreet Bailout", ineptitude, corruption and lack of confidence.
But I can see a large potential NOMINAL rally in the market, maybe we already have had it? The FED Cartel and the government appear to be printing amazing amounts of money to keeps the system in place and the game going.
However, in the long run earnings are coming down, bankruptcies are going up, unemployment will climb and interest rates are going to climb.
Do not think interest rates are going up?
Ask Warren Buffet Financial Raped Victims GE or GS, what interest rates "the Oracle" charged these two mysterious Black Box hedge funds. Remember when these two companies were considered the "Gold Standard" of American Companies? Way back to May of 2007? Or was it Sep 2008?
This is bad for the stock market. But there are companies that I would consider buying. I am checking on company now. Apple. My computer at home keeps crashing, so I am in the Apple store mooching a MAC. I heard MAC get fewer virus then Microsoft, plus the IPHONE connectivity makes it an ideal computer.
Would I consider a long position in Apple? Sure
BREAK - -------------------
I am no expert on Gold. I like it, I am slowly acquiring Gold coins. Where? Where I find them, from reputable sources and I pay cash. Why? Watch the Pianist or Black Book. Gold has been money for 3000+ years. Gold is insurance.
But for most Fools, gold should not be your focus. Your job and saving money, should be your focus.
Gary North, who I subscribe to, has an outstanding write up today on Gold. If you are long Gold or considering a Gold position, I 100% guarantee it is worth your time to read. GN will give you a free one month trial, sign up and read it for free ... www.garynorth.com
Gold in 2009: Up, Down, Or Sideways?
I do not want to steal his work, but I will steal a quote or two, that I think are relevant.
GOLD IN 2009: UP, DOWN, OR SIDEWAYS?
For the overwhelming majority of people in the world, this question is irrelevant. Except for India, in which gold jewelry is given by parents to daughters at the time of their marriage, almost no one owns gold.
Cutting your budget by 10% is more important than buying gold coins at the present time. Getting in control of your expenditures is crucial. Buying gold coins is a good idea, but it is not as crucial as getting control of your family budget. Assume that your income will drop over the next year. If you're in sales, you had better expect a drop of 25% or greater. Deal with this first. Then worry about gold.