Obama Has It Locked Up
There are debates, and then there are facts.
The recent unemployment report brought the 4 year Misery Index to 9.1. This is a full 1 point better than it was when Obama was re-elected. Additionally, we've seen the S&P improve an annulized 11.7% since the 2008 elections. This overwhelms the previous quadrennial average of -2.8%.
There are too many economic improvements on the table for voters to want to chance the economy in someone else's hands. At worst, Obama will win by 2.3% (Using data since 1920) or 0.75% (using data since 1896), and there is a great chance that it will be a blowout.
As it stands now, Obama has a 86.2% to 89.6% percent chance of winning. Update on 11/1 to show final prediction.