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Obama Has It Locked Up

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5

October 08, 2012 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , QQQ , DIA

There are debates, and then there are facts.

The recent unemployment report brought the 4 year Misery Index to 9.1.  This is a full 1 point better than it was when Obama was re-elected.  Additionally, we've seen the S&P improve an annulized 11.7% since the 2008 elections.  This overwhelms the previous quadrennial average of -2.8%.

There are too many economic improvements on the table for voters to want to chance the economy in someone else's hands.  At worst, Obama will win by 2.3% (Using data since 1920) or 0.75% (using data since 1896), and there is a great chance that it will be a blowout. 

As it stands now, Obama has a 86.2% to 89.6% percent chance of winning.  Update on 11/1 to show final prediction.

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 08, 2012 at 12:54 PM, edwjm (99.87) wrote:

It ain't over til it's over!

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#2) On October 08, 2012 at 12:58 PM, Hawkwin (< 20) wrote:

is a full 1 point better than it was when Obama was re-elected. 

Should state since Obama has been elected.

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#3) On October 08, 2012 at 1:21 PM, athebob (87.42) wrote:

Forgetting politics, to me it was very very clear at the end of august being in charge when Bin Laden was killed plus the slow pitch across the plate of TS Isaac not causing a huge clustasrophe meant barring a complete economic melt down the Pres was getting reelected.

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#4) On October 08, 2012 at 1:50 PM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

anyone voting for obama is an idiot. also the people voting for romney are idiots. rinse and repeat in four years.

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#5) On October 08, 2012 at 9:03 PM, ThomasPound (84.21) wrote:

Sorry for the lack of editing.  In a hurry during lunch.  Still hold to the position that Obama has a 7 in 8 chance of winning.  Forget the current polls.  The only thing that matters is the economy.

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#6) On October 08, 2012 at 9:11 PM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

LOL, if it was the economy Obama wouldn't have a chance. It's the free stuff he's promising that our kids will pay for later.Romney is promising free stuff too, but not to the right people.

LOL, economy! That made my day! 

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#7) On October 08, 2012 at 9:31 PM, ChrisGraley (29.65) wrote:

I found it unfathomable that Bush II added 2 Trillion dollars to the deficit in just 8 years till I sat and watched Obama add 5.3 trillion in just 4 years. 

Please campaign on anything but the economy for Obama.  

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#8) On October 08, 2012 at 9:41 PM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

What ChrisGraley said...

And just to add to that...The economy is weaker and more vulnerable than it was four years ago; record deficits, and fed stimulus can hide it from the ignorant and naive for a while, but not forever... 

I agree that Obama will win again. It's quite sad actually considering how poor of shape the REAL economy is in.

Neither Obama nor Romney will make the decisions necessary to bring this country back to its former glory. Needless to say, I will NOT be voting this election.

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#9) On October 08, 2012 at 9:57 PM, BillZack (< 20) wrote:

You're "Facts" are grossly manipulated along with the Obama Administration numbers. Check the Rassmussen and Pew Poll #'s released today showing Romney in a dead heat with the incumbent following their debate. Can you spell M O M E N T U M? I strongly suspect that after the scheduled debate between Biden and Ryan this week the polls will continue to shift to the Republicans camp. Obama has accelerated the budget deficit at break neck speed without a plan in 4 yrs! The Lame stream media knocking Romney's Fiscal plan is laughable. Their guy actually does have a plan, but he won't publicize his plan because it would lead to his Indictment and prison sentence! No, I'm not from the Tea Party or any other group. I'm an Independant with my own two eyes and ears and the ability to recognize a Train Wreck when I see one. Please do the same because I don't care what your political affiliation is, another Obama term and we will all feel the pain!                                                                                                   

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#10) On October 08, 2012 at 10:16 PM, schiff34 (< 20) wrote:

Jobless recovery anyone? Worst "recovery" in modern times. The argument that the economy is getting better because of our current policy is intellectually dishonest. Spending 2.6 trillion to stimulate and not even achieving growth above inflation or job creation to keep pace with population growth is GOOD? Please check your pulse and consult your physician(no Obamaca joke here).

Name a president to get re-elected with the economy in such bad shape, wait I'll do it for you. It was FDR and we were about to enter the 2nd world war. No such war to bail out our president. Even IF Obama gains re-election his record will only continue to deteriorate as he has proven he cannot pass any meaningful legislation unless the democrats control both the house and senate. If we want anything meaningful or bi-partisan to be accomplished in the next four years we will not achieve it by re-electing Obama.

 

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#11) On October 08, 2012 at 10:40 PM, oleyp (< 20) wrote:

Another  4 years of Obama, and your grandchildren will be speaking Chinese.

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#12) On October 09, 2012 at 1:16 AM, awallejr (85.54) wrote:

anyone voting for obama is an idiot. also the people voting for romney are idiots. rinse and repeat in four years.

There was a time when I agreed and even argued that Chris but Romney's attack on housing was a game changer for me. I have full faith in him throwing this country back into recession while he and his rich buddies prosper should he get elected.

At least under Obama the stock market more than doubled. Now if you are a bear go Romney.

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#13) On October 09, 2012 at 9:38 AM, getrichslowfool (< 20) wrote:

The stock market really had nowhere to go but up.  If that's all you care about, then you should probably write-in Bernanke for President.

We can print 3 trillion a year forever, and your stock market can continue to go up.  It'll feel weird leaving a 100 dollar bill on the table for a cup of coffee, though...

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#14) On October 09, 2012 at 9:47 AM, athebob (87.42) wrote:

Don't worry while we're at it we can cry over the lack of a real alternative from the Libertarian party, that is unless you're actually silly enough to consider Bob Barr or Gary Johnson libertarians.

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#15) On October 09, 2012 at 11:46 AM, awallejr (85.54) wrote:

The stock market really had nowhere to go but up.

Really?  Go back to 2009 and read all the threads about where the market was going to go.  The market began its rise after Bernanke came out and guaranted the banks from failing.  Companies then cut costs dramatically, raised cash and started to grow their revenues. 

Obama didn't impede the process and kept interest rates low, even lowering them more with the payroll tax reduction. That is why the market rose.  Even Kudlow would admit that it is all about profits in the end, and this market is nowhere near expensive from a PE point of view.

But now we are stalling and I submit it was intended by the republicans under Norquist.  They gridlocked Congress purposefully.  They were the ones orchestrating the so called impending fiscal cliff.

Reason why the cuts will come into play is that the republicans stalled raising the national debt limit causing these automatic cuts as a solution to the self-created crisis.

And as for tax hikes.  There is a bill stalled that would keep the Bush taxes rates for the bulk of the country.  Sign it, boom crisis ended. But the republicans won't because their rich buddies aren't included even though they argue "common ground" which the pending the bill is on.

But I do admit that I want the market to continue rising since hey we are investors in it.

As for inflation, if you leave a $100 tip you are one helluva customer but here's your link:

 http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=inflation%20rate%20us&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CC4QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usinflationcalculator.com%2Finflation%2Fhistorical-inflation-rates%2F&ei=GUZ0UPmmJuLi0gH2qIDYCg&usg=AFQjCNGCZGT67io4Pf2eLFgmtgTEiaHtFg

 

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#16) On October 09, 2012 at 11:55 AM, AvianFlu (37.42) wrote:

When I read the initial post I thought it was a joke.

 Whatever the case, in less than a month it will all be over except the crying.

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#17) On October 09, 2012 at 12:04 PM, imntacrook (< 20) wrote:

Just on the face of it, if you prefer a socialist community organizer to run the economy over a successful capitalist, you are living on the wrong planet!

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