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Ode to Alstry, he will be missed.

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May 30, 2009 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: STR , Y

                      I will Miss Alstry when he's gone:

  Generally on a Saturday, blogs go flying on and off the blog list faster than they can be read.  Heck, Alstry himself averages 5-8 blogs on a weekend. Regardless, I did want to take this opportunity, while I still could, to express how much we will miss Alstry when he is gone.  Let me say up front, LOUDLY, and clearly, this is not a ridicule blog.  Alstry and his model, even if slightly flawed, deserve our respect. 

  While I doubt that at my altitude/rating here on CAPs that I rate much respect from Alstry, I wanted to get this blog in before I fell even further, as he predicts is inevitable. Oh, I don't know if the economy’s doom and gloom will end soon or next year.  I expect sooner, rather than later. Alstry does have some banked accuracy, but I do find that once you hit 70% accuracy and your points start falling below 2,500 then you fall very fast.  I lost 2,500 points in the March down turn while in denial we were in a bear trough. Points were lost both from being too bullish and by then trying to turn thumbs down near the bottom on companies  that then bounced back with a vengeance. By all rights they should have been goners in a recession, but the cat not only wasn't dead on the sub $5 stocks, it was a tiger waking up from a nap as Mr. Market feed it with the odor of the fear of missing out

  Alstry has also made some great positive picks, in oil, and particularly hand guns. I'm much more certain, however,  that Alstry's CAP's rating will be below 55.5 and/or his points below 555 long before the S&P reaches down to 555 as he predicts.  Maybe even by 9/9/09 if I was going to pick a random date

   It's true that we could have a depression like the 30's sneaky reversal back to new lows, but I'm content with taking the double bottom we took in November and March, and calling this recession stabilizing.  While it could lose 10%, I think, short of North Korea birthing a baby Nuc, that it's much more likely to head up 10% and consolidate first.  North Korea, or a similar event would be temporary as 2-3medium sized nukes with the right address penciled on their side would solve that particular problem.

  I could blog about why I think we are going to recover, in spite of ourselves, or our government’s efforts, but I’ll save that for my next blog. This one is for Alstry and all the good he has done with his perspectives. Regardless of the economy, a North Korea "event", or any positive green shoots, the value of the dollar will drop, inflation will take us on for awhile, some companies will fail and some will thrive.  A depression, however, is not in the cards this time. In general, however, I do want to honor Alstry before he's gone.  We need all view points, and the odds in the thick of this mess of his being correct were statistically valid enough to consider and weigh.  It also was valid to balance the extremists on the other end.

  I won't mourn for Alstry, he's a survivor.  He has his bunker, his C-rations, and firearms.  If he really kept his cash in his mattress then it's still good, although inflation will start whacking it.  I will mourn for Alstry if he stays bitter.  And I do feel sorry that if he's as bearish as he portrays, meaning that he missed the 20-70% gains that someone of his intellect could have had the last two months,  if the intellect had been applied.

  There are different ways of missing someone or something that has been part of your life for so long and made it's mark.  Alstry will remain a top blogger, and was very much followed.  His perspectives, if over done, were very much needed. 

  I was once in an area where there were no doctors or dentists to be had for over a month.  A fairly serious tooth ache developed and any possible treatment with amateurs was worse than the pain.  It persisted for about 3 weeks and just before I could have seen a professional it mysteriously went away.  I did miss that toothache, or its absence (or abscess). It was such a part of my life.  I will miss Alstry.

    TSIF

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 30, 2009 at 2:17 PM, alstry (35.67) wrote:

At the end of this fiscal year...your Federal government will be in debt approximately $12 trillion dollars.  That is approximately $40,000 for every man, women and child.

If you add in Private Debt, we are indebted approximately $150,000 for every man, woman and child.

Before the Bush/Pelosi years...it was only about $75,000 for every man, woman and child...

There average income of the average American is less today than it was before the Bush/Pelosi years yet we are now supporting twice the debt...and other expenses are much higher both for citizens and government....we are now collectively insolvent and the issue will need to be addressed soon.

Welcome to Zombulation..you are about to be Zombulated....you cannot escape....GUARANTEED!!!!!

In the mean time, please enjoy your fantasy...it is soon about to come to an abrupt end.

Prepare...Don't Despair.

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#2) On May 30, 2009 at 3:08 PM, RonChapmanJr (69.46) wrote:

Some people should be required to take IQ tests before they are allowed to post.

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#3) On May 30, 2009 at 5:01 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hey Ron, was that directed at me, or the other poster?  Not that I'm paranoid!  :) 

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#4) On May 30, 2009 at 5:07 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:


Alstry, thanks for stopping in!  :)

I guess I will be Zombulated, because I'm living in a fantasy world where the  government printing presses will take care of the "problem".   Although it lags, money gets printed, we get inflation, salaries go up, those who have mortgages now will see the value of their house relative to their debt go up.  Inflation can be a great thing about a year after it occurs.  When the other countries get tired of us and value the other commodities on another currency then prices will disengage. In the meantime, the dollar depreciates, oil goes up, commodities go up, other countries get richer, the world is a disfunctional, but happy place.

I really do, however, appreciate the warnings.  I'm slightly confused though with "Prepare...Don't Dispair".   Can you do a few blogs, maybe 20-30 (for starters) on how we should prepare.

Thanks!

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#5) On May 30, 2009 at 5:27 PM, alstry (35.67) wrote:

Actually, salaries go down in Zombulation Inflation...until you attend the Institute of Alstrynomics, you will not understand this concept that is a consequence of the FU virus spread by the Zombulator.

You will learn soon that your only choice will be to pay 100% of your net worth and salary to the government or else we will have millions of unemployed beggers all over the place without access to any healthcare.

It is not a question of paranoia....simply one of math where the outcome is now certain.

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#6) On May 30, 2009 at 5:40 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Goodness, I've already got my plan for 100% taxation, should it ever occur......I just stop making any money.  The governement gives me everything that I need. 

 But since I've been making so much money the last two months while waiting for the market to tank, I guess I will hide some of it, buy some silver and gold, trade some for a gun, ammo and seeds, and head to Alaska, where global warming will make it a great place to camp out doors year round.

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#7) On May 30, 2009 at 8:55 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

A rec...for the chuckle this one gave to me...thanks...

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#8) On May 30, 2009 at 9:09 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

  When you speak of this "Zombification", I must inquire as if you view this as a global problem or merely a problem for America?

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#9) On May 30, 2009 at 9:22 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Thanks MikeB.  I liked your post on CDE. I thought I had hit the lottery as well.  CAP's links to the Yahoo board, so you get some strange things sometimes. I figured my extra points would fade away as well. You'll hit the 500 point charms on your two big point picks in the next year or less.  Keep it up!

Atarigod, Alstry has a lot of blogs on the Zombie effect.  They mostly talk about our nation, but also 98% of CAP's players and we have a lot of international ones. Get some Alstrynomics  here,

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewBlog.aspx?t=01002130057764754273

He beat his old record with 103 Blogs in the Month of May, (and there's still a few hours left).  A May 23rd blog, and others do a great job of explaining Alstrynomics.  It's really important to get updated. The best spots in Alaska will be gone soon.

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#10) On May 30, 2009 at 9:37 PM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

During the 1970s inflation, salaries also inflated, as did real estate. The big problem was the energy crisis (i.e. high fuel prices), and unemployment. The bottom line is this: printing money often inflates salaries as well.

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#11) On May 30, 2009 at 9:48 PM, alstry (35.67) wrote:

boo,

In a productive inflationary environment, wages rise like the 70s...in a zombulation inflationary environoment..wages crash.

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#12) On May 31, 2009 at 2:56 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Zombulation does sound scary. Maybe I will just opt for mummification instead. 20 parts alchohol to one part blood should do the trick.  Please do give us 20-30 blogs on how we can prepare!

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