Ode to Alstry, he will be missed.
May 30, 2009
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I will Miss Alstry when he's gone:
Generally on a Saturday, blogs go flying on and off the blog list faster than they can be read. Heck, Alstry himself averages 5-8 blogs on a weekend. Regardless, I did want to take this opportunity, while I still could, to express how much we will miss Alstry when he is gone. Let me say up front, LOUDLY, and clearly, this is not a ridicule blog. Alstry and his model, even if slightly flawed, deserve our respect.
While I doubt that at my altitude/rating here on CAPs that I rate much respect from Alstry, I wanted to get this blog in before I fell even further, as he predicts is inevitable. Oh, I don't know if the economy’s doom and gloom will end soon or next year. I expect sooner, rather than later. Alstry does have some banked accuracy, but I do find that once you hit 70% accuracy and your points start falling below 2,500 then you fall very fast. I lost 2,500 points in the March down turn while in denial we were in a bear trough. Points were lost both from being too bullish and by then trying to turn thumbs down near the bottom on companies that then bounced back with a vengeance. By all rights they should have been goners in a recession, but the cat not only wasn't dead on the sub $5 stocks, it was a tiger waking up from a nap as Mr. Market feed it with the odor of the fear of missing out.
Alstry has also made some great positive picks, in oil, and particularly hand guns. I'm much more certain, however, that Alstry's CAP's rating will be below 55.5 and/or his points below 555 long before the S&P reaches down to 555 as he predicts. Maybe even by 9/9/09 if I was going to pick a random date.
It's true that we could have a depression like the 30's sneaky reversal back to new lows, but I'm content with taking the double bottom we took in November and March, and calling this recession stabilizing. While it could lose 10%, I think, short of North Korea birthing a baby Nuc, that it's much more likely to head up 10% and consolidate first. North Korea, or a similar event would be temporary as 2-3medium sized nukes with the right address penciled on their side would solve that particular problem.
I could blog about why I think we are going to recover, in spite of ourselves, or our government’s efforts, but I’ll save that for my next blog. This one is for Alstry and all the good he has done with his perspectives. Regardless of the economy, a North Korea "event", or any positive green shoots, the value of the dollar will drop, inflation will take us on for awhile, some companies will fail and some will thrive. A depression, however, is not in the cards this time. In general, however, I do want to honor Alstry before he's gone. We need all view points, and the odds in the thick of this mess of his being correct were statistically valid enough to consider and weigh. It also was valid to balance the extremists on the other end.
I won't mourn for Alstry, he's a survivor. He has his bunker, his C-rations, and firearms. If he really kept his cash in his mattress then it's still good, although inflation will start whacking it. I will mourn for Alstry if he stays bitter. And I do feel sorry that if he's as bearish as he portrays, meaning that he missed the 20-70% gains that someone of his intellect could have had the last two months, if the intellect had been applied.
There are different ways of missing someone or something that has been part of your life for so long and made it's mark. Alstry will remain a top blogger, and was very much followed. His perspectives, if over done, were very much needed.
I was once in an area where there were no doctors or dentists to be had for over a month. A fairly serious tooth ache developed and any possible treatment with amateurs was worse than the pain. It persisted for about 3 weeks and just before I could have seen a professional it mysteriously went away. I did miss that toothache, or its absence (or abscess). It was such a part of my life. I will miss Alstry.
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