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Oil over $70 again

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August 03, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: BP , ATPAQ

I really didn't expect oil to pop over $70 again after July 4th for awhile.  I was expecting an oil range upper 50s lower to mid 60s until end of the year.  This run up confuses me to be honest.  I am starting to think that oil is being held more as an asset than a product.  If it stays above $70 this can only but maintain a bullish signal.  I would continue to urge integrateds like BP as buys, and even a company like ATPG, which will only but benefit with any sustained "high" price, especially when their Telemark hub opens up.  Take a look at it.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 03, 2009 at 1:07 AM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

  Glodman Sachs Is sneaking around the fringes again.......   They know all of the loopholes,because they helped create them........       http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=237297&t=01007146184382914537

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#2) On August 03, 2009 at 1:09 AM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

Sorry... mispelled Goldman........ 

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#3) On August 03, 2009 at 1:22 AM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

I know they predict $95 by end of year, if I recall, and if GDP does pick up by then as expected I could understand and agree with the call.  But for oil to rebound like it has now really does surprise me, tho happily because I am oil bullish long term.

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#4) On August 03, 2009 at 3:29 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Oil is up because the $ is down. It is that simple. It is the same reason this market keeps running.

 Obama/Bernaski can't and won't admit it but they like Bush before them have a weak $ policy. That automatically raises oil.

Maybe they have a high oil policy and that weakens the $ but I think the causality is the other way around.

China is starting to drain money supply. That may start dropping the foreign markets. However, they are trying to be careful to not drop thier own market.  China is a few months ahead of the US. If they can reduce money supply without collapsing the recovery maybe the US can.

If China goes down I think the US and the rest of the world may follow fairly fast.

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#5) On August 03, 2009 at 6:19 AM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

higher oil = trickier to implement useful policies that would normally combat unemployment

http://msncaps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=233865&t=02002804757059383539

 

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#6) On August 03, 2009 at 11:09 AM, leohaas (35.73) wrote:

"I am starting to think that oil is being held more as an asset than a product."

Duhhh.

Oil reaching $147 was because of speculation. Oil dropping to $30 was because of speculation. Oil getting up to near $80 was because of speculation. Oil going down to $60 was because of speculation. Contango is because of speculation. Oil going up again is because of speculation. Nothing new under the sun!

I just wish I was better able to gauge when speculation would drive prices up, and when down. I'd be a rich man...

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#7) On August 03, 2009 at 12:38 PM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

Well you shuld have read my May blogs on oil.

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#8) On August 05, 2009 at 10:45 AM, Dobbes (< 20) wrote:

Oil is not just run up 'due to speculation.'  Like another poster said, the dollar is weak right now.  OPEC countries have stated production increases which are indicative of a global demand increase.  Kuwait came out with their own price estimates for oil that was around the $85-$95 range in the next 3 months which means GS's estimate is not some randomly generated number to manipulate the market.

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