awallejr (80.08)

Oil to 118MBD by 2030s?

May 13, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATPAQ , BP

The following link leads to  a very lengthy report by the US Joint Foces but has some really interesting projections. 

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/u-s-military-warns-of-oil-shortage-as-early-as-2015/19442647/

The demographics discussion was interesting but more on point was the following projections:

"To meet even the conservative growth rates posited in the economics section, global energy

production would need to rise by 1.3% per year. By the 2030s, demand is estimated to be nearly 50%

greater than today. To meet that demand, even assuming more effective conservation measures, the

world would need to add roughly the equivalent of Saudi Arabia’s current energy production every

seven years.

Absent a major increase in the relative reliance on alternative energy sources (which would require vast

insertions of capital, dramatic changes in technology, and altered political attitudes toward nuclear

energy), oil and coal will continue to drive the energy train. By the 2030s, oil requirements could go

from 86 to 118 million barrels a day (MBD). Although the use of coal may decline in the Organization

for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, it will more than double in developing

nations. Fossil fuels will still make up 80% of the energy mix in the 2030s, with oil and gas comprising

upwards of 60%. The central problem for the coming decade will not be a lack of petroleum reserves,

but rather a shortage of drilling platforms, engineers and refining capacity. Even were a concerted

effort begun today to repair that shortage, it would be ten years before production could catch up with

expected demand. The key determinant here would be the degree of commitment the United States

and others display in addressing the dangerous vulnerabilities the growing energy crisis presents.

That production bottleneck apart, the potential sources of future energy supplies nearly all present

their own difficulties and vulnerabilities. None of these provide much reason for optimism. At present,

the United States possesses approximately 250 million cars, while China with its immensely larger

population possesses only 40 million."

While the BP rig blowout, for example, is quite concerning, how Congress ultimately reacts could have major future repercussions