Okay, Lets Talk About The Next Twenty Years.
This blog was inspired by TMFDeej’s piece today titled *The Global Demographic Headwind*. He came across an article about how the global population will decline over the next fifty years and what will cause it to happen. Check it out here and give him a rec: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-global-demographic/426410
Okay, but let’s talk about the next twenty years.
I would say China is about 1/3 of the way to being tapped out in terms of growth The middle class will continue to grow, will be increasingly western educated and should gain political power making it a better place to live and do business. After that it will go into a natural gradual decline.
Brazil has just started to expand their infrastructure. In the short term they are going full steam ahead for when they host the summer games. Hopefully they can sustain some of that momentum afterwards. The middle class is small, but growing. They will, along with Canada, be the world’s natural resource supplier. They are perfectly positioned to feed China’s need for materials over the next two decades. They may even be able to service India as they grow. The main issue I see with Brazil has to do with education. Compared to other developing nations they are far behind. This will limit their ability to grow into high tech sectors. In twenty years I think Brazil will still be supplying natural resources and little else unless they make education a priority.
I have nothing positive to contribute about Putinastan.
To me they hold the most promise. Like China, they have over a billion people. The government is democratically elected. They have a small, but growing, middle class. The education system is very good. They have highly competitive colleges and universities. A large percentage of the population speaks English. Outside the major cities running water, sanitation, electricity, paved roads, healthcare, banks, cell phones…well, you get the point, are in short supply. They are eager to show the world what they can accomplish. India is ready, willing and able. I don’t think India is going to explode off the block as China did. Being a democracy they are creatures driven by individual wants and needs. Herding cats comes to mind when compared to the general single mindness of China’s population. So I think India will start like a train, building steam and eventually moving forward at a healthy sustained clip. I think India will find itself in thirty years where China will be in the next twenty.
So, is my crystal ball foggy? Would you like to hit me with a fish while calling me a ninny? What say you, the great washed and groomed of TMF? Share your thoughts!
He who is 100% invested in that company that sells the plastic swords and umbrellas for your fruity drinks,