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Varchild2008 (84.44)

OMG! Gallup shows Unemployment Bottomed

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April 17, 2009 – Comments (12)

www.gallup.com

They release their economic numbers based on last night's survey of yesterday.  Huh?

What that means is today's after 1:00 numbers reflect April 15th.

Guess what?    Hiring  24%    Letting Go  24%           Yes, it's just 1 lousy...meaningless TICK mark..... But is it so meaningless?  Do we have a trend?  Hiring reaching at a pace to match lay offs?

While Alstry is predicing 30% unemployment... Gallup is showing a bottom in Unemployment. 
If numbers start too look real interesting over the next two weeks in which Hiring / Letting Go keep diverging each-other....Keep touching....    You know that Wall Street is watching Gallup's surveys.... You know they are...

This Market is ready to explode to 9,000 at any semblance of a bottom in unemployment.

So... Just be aware that the future is mirky but Gallup shows for at least 1 Tick Mark..a Bottom in a lagging indicator.

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 17, 2009 at 1:31 PM, russiangambit (29.94) wrote:

It is a survey , right? So, it is just an opinion of average people. I do wonder, who is hiring, though. Most companies I know of have hiring freeze.

 Is it possible that hiring is on much smaller scale than layoffs? Because even at the pick in January, there is 23  - hiring, 30 - layoffs. So, only 7 % of companies have produced 6 mil layoffs?

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#2) On April 17, 2009 at 1:51 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/jobs_employment/49_say_it_s_possible_for_anyone_to_find_job_up_four_points_from_month_ago

Rasmussen Reports shows a bottom in short-term optimism about the job market.

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#3) On April 17, 2009 at 1:53 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

You are reading the numbers wrong...

The percentages are based on what any paticular random company is doing.  If a bunch of small, who cares, companys make up the hiring percentage and Large Caps the Lay Offs then it can make even a perceived bottom in Gallups charts look even more meaningless.

Granted.... This is just the first reporting of something positive going on in the job market.  It does not mean hiring is doing better than before at all...

Based on these numbers.... it simply means that Lay Offs are decelerating.

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#4) On April 17, 2009 at 1:59 PM, JTShideler (88.57) wrote:

The government is hiring people like crazy.

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#5) On April 17, 2009 at 2:02 PM, kushme (22.04) wrote:

hiring freeze as well as freeze on pay increases.

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#6) On April 17, 2009 at 2:15 PM, Billullo (< 20) wrote:

JTShideler

where do you see that Goverment is hiring like crazy?

Here in Los Angeles there is a freeze on new hires at county jobs! 

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#7) On April 17, 2009 at 2:36 PM, motleyanimal (97.81) wrote:

I can tell you that the EDD in California is hiring, but only to process all the new unemployment claims.

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#8) On April 17, 2009 at 2:51 PM, mattskin (< 20) wrote:

Companies are freezing wages an enforcing temporary unpaid leaves in lieu of layoffs.  This are still bad...

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#9) On April 17, 2009 at 5:23 PM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

Could be a rise in TEMPS as well.

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#10) On April 17, 2009 at 7:15 PM, nielej (< 20) wrote:

you should read their post on what their jobs number means.  http://www.gallup.com/tag/Jobs.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110905/Shrinking-Job-Market-Next-Crisis.aspx

 ignore their data at your own peril.  The people's opinions are a leading indicator not lagging indicator like the unemployment claims number. 

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#11) On April 18, 2009 at 10:46 AM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

Sorry but my opinion isn't changed.  The Chart and Jobs Numbers on Gallup are Laggards.  We started to see some signs of improvement in the economy back in December!

It took from December (as far as I can tell from the chart) to April 14-16's survey to see jobs numbers touch (hiring to letting go).

These really are "people's opinions" as one would hope they are based on actual evidence of hiring or lay offs.  Of course, can't do much about those who choose to LIE in a survey.

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#12) On April 18, 2009 at 10:47 AM, Varchild2008 (84.44) wrote:

TYPO.. I mean that these aren't merely "people's opnions."

These are supposed to be genuine examples of a workplace expanding their workforce, doing nothing, or shrinking it.

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