On War, Technical Analysis vs Geo-Politcal Knowledge
"No nation has ever benefited from a prolonged war"
Sun Tzu's Art of War
I do not use technical analysis, besides a glance at a chart and a trend. Although I will usually not "fight a trend". My view of technical software is stolen from the gurus in the book Market Wizards, most call technical analysis software available to the public worthless. I think technical analysis might work for some people and I do not doubt that GS etc, have some super computers that produce some accurate/useful data. But the software available to the average stock trader is near valueless or worse, IMO.
The “premier technical tool” Black-Sholes model, bankrupt LTCM, and their "the best and brightest" employees, the Geo-politics of Russian default threw in a "black swan", their computer model could not compute.
I think the war, its costs and the fall out are the biggest driver of the market today. If Israel attacks Iran you can expect a major shift in the US market, as oil may go $200-400 a barrel. The NEOCONS, who pushed for the war in Iraq also want a war with Iran. The price of oil impacts almost all US publicly traded companies. How many "investors", have this scenario allocated in their portfolio? What is the risk/reward of being long "Best of Breed" if the attack occurs?
I have a few websites I go to, to look for geopolitical and war related discussions, I figured I would share.
1. Shrapnel by Colonel Robert E Bartos is candid, hard hitting with an outstanding Geopolitical perspective. Col Bartos used to write for Col David Hackworth. He writes once a week, almost all his posts are worth a read.
Vexations of Colonialism – GW Bush in Iraq
2. Fredoneverything.net by Fred Reed. Candid and funny Fred is one of the leading American philosophers. His website has a record of 7,735,334 views. FR is a well traveled former Marine and Vietnam vet. He was a reporter for Soldier of Fortune Magazine and a police reporter in DC. All Freds’ posts are worth a reading. I was going to pick three, but just read them all, seriously….
Israel, AIPAC, and God Once Again, Fred Solves World Problem
William Lind: Archives – William Lind is an expert of Fourth Generation warfare. He follows the war and writes candidly. Almost all his posts are worth reading:
The Coming American Defeat
William S. Lind on what can happen when the US aggresses against Iran.
Why the Depression Is Not All Bad
It will rein in the empire.
A Problem for Future Neocon Invasions
Victim countries may adopt the Saddam strategy, says William S. Lind.
Gary North at GaryNorth.com Gary North is a self made millionaire and businessman. GN has wisdom, candor with a background in economics and religion. Gary North is expecting an attack on Iran (I will post later). I pay for Gary North’s website. He posts/writes four times a day. He also writes weekly for free here:
The Israeli Hot Potato
And $400 oil.
What Would Jesus Steal?
Gary North on Murray Rothbard, Jim Wallis, and the Social Gospel.
Terrifying Economic Plans
Gary North on old Keynesian dogs and their old fiscal tricks.
UN Inspector Scott Ritter