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XMFSinchiruna (27.56)

Once again, this is required reading for any serious commodities investor!

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June 04, 2009 – Comments (4)

Joy Global reported earnings yesterday, and as always the insights the company provides in their market commentary and company outlook is filled with incredible hints about the most effective ways to play the commodity space. They break a complex picture down by region and by commodity in such a way as to hone investors' focus on where existing and anticipated strength are within the sectors in question. I will continue to post JOYG's earnings calls here on my blog, and encourage Fools to treat these commentaries with the respect they deserve. JOYG's management team gets it ... and history will show they maintained unimpaired clarity throughout these incredible disruptions to the broader commodities markets. I have bolded some of the most important portions of the text.

I'll post my article on the earnings here when it's published.

Fool on!

MILWAUKEE, Jun 03, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Joy Global Inc. (NASDAQ: JOYG), a worldwide leader in high-productivity mining solutions, today reported second quarter fiscal year 2009 results. Net sales for the quarter increased by 10 percent to $924 million compared to $843 million in the second quarter of last year. Operating income increased to $188 million, or 20 percent of net sales, in the second quarter versus $114 million, or 14 percent of net sales, in the prior-year quarter. Net income in the quarter was $121 million, or $1.17 per fully diluted share, compared to $72 million, or $0.66 per fully diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.

"Our results for the second quarter were at record levels for revenues, operating profit margins and net earnings. These accomplishments are the result of on-going efforts to reduce expenses, to achieve savings from effective management of our supply chain and to gain improvements from manufacturing processes through our Operational Excellence initiative," said Mike Sutherlin, president and chief executive officer of Joy Global Inc. "The momentum behind these efforts is beginning to have a positive and noticeable impact on our performance. The strength we are gaining in operational efficiency and financial performance will serve us well as we address the uncertainty and volatility that exists in the outlook for our markets."

Second Quarter Operating Results

Bookings in the second quarter were $635 million compared to $1.2 billion in last year's second quarter. Current quarter bookings were reduced by $96 million of order cancellations. Of these cancellations, $46 million occurred in the Joy and Continental businesses and were mainly from customers in Central Appalachia, while $50 million occurred in the P&H business and were from customers in North American copper and iron ore. When measured on a consistent basis by adjusting for these cancellations, current quarter new orders were down 41 percent from the same period last year. New original equipment orders, before cancellations, declined 61 percent from last year's second quarter, with the declines evenly split between the Joy underground equipment business and the P&H surface equipment business. Included in the new orders for original equipment were orders for shovels going into coal markets in the U.S. and China, and for longwall equipment for China and room and pillar equipment for South Africa and Australasia.

Before cancellations, new aftermarket bookings were 14 percent lower than the year-ago period, with almost all of that decrease occurring in the P&H business. Half of the decline in P&H aftermarket orders resulted from severe production cuts in North American copper and iron ore markets where it has strong market positions, and another one-third came from a lower level of contracts for shovel erection and commissioning that are booked with original equipment orders. The declines in both original equipment and aftermarket new orders, before cancellations, are in line with the Company's expectations under current market conditions.

Over the last three quarters, the Company received $300 million of order cancellations which were concentrated in North American copper and iron ore, U.S. Central Appalachian coal and Russian coal. The Company now believes that the remaining original equipment backlog risk could be as much as $525 million. The combination of cancellations to date, plus future backlog risk, would be 26 percent of peak backlog versus the 15 percent previously projected. The increased risk comes from a specific oil sands project and from the later portions of several multiple machine orders. Despite improving fundamentals for the oil sands in general, an impending change of ownership in a major greenfield project raises uncertainty regarding final project approval. The Company believes there is risk of delay or cancellation of the related shovel orders in its backlog. The remainder of the increased risk comes primarily from several orders for multiple machines booked with scheduled deliveries extending into 2012. These orders were placed when the industry expected high growth rates to continue, but the recent downturn has changed that outlook dramatically. Although these orders will eventually be executed, the Company now expects some of the later machines to be delayed significantly. As a result, the Company believes it is prudent to add these to backlog risk.

Net sales for the second quarter were $924 million compared to $843 million in the second quarter last year. Compared to last year's second quarter, the current quarter sales were reduced by $67 million for the effect of foreign exchange translation. Excluding the foreign exchange impact, original equipment and aftermarket sales increased by 31 percent and 9 percent, respectively. Excluding the foreign exchange effect, original equipment sales were up 56 percent in the Joy underground business, up 38 percent in the Continental crushing and conveying business and flat in the P&H surface business.

Operating profit increased to $188 million in the second quarter from $114 million in the prior-year second quarter. Operating profit as a percentage of sales in the current quarter was 20 percent compared to 14 percent a year ago. Operating profit increased due to increased volume as well as from the Company's cost reduction and Operational Excellence programs. Also, the prior year's quarter was unfavorably impacted by a $21 million contract cancellation charge and $10 million of additional purchase accounting amortization related to the acquisition of the Continental conveyor business. The positive impacts on operating profit were partially offset by $9 million from foreign currency translation. Excluding these items, operating income would have been up 36 percent from last year's second quarter.

Net income in the quarter was $121 million, or $1.17 per fully diluted share, compared to $72 million, or $0.66 per fully diluted share, recorded in the year-ago quarter. Excluding the contract cancellation and purchase accounting amortization, last year's net income would have been $93 million, or $0.85 per fully diluted share. The effective tax rate in both the current and prior-year second quarters was approximately 33 percent.

Other Financial Matters

Cash provided by operations was $63 million in the second quarter compared to cash provided by operations of $107 million in the prior-year quarter. Net working capital increased by $90 million from the same period of last year, with $89 million of this change the result of declining advance payments. Advance payments decreased by $53 million compared to an increase of $36 million last year, reflecting lower original equipment backlog and bookings in 2009 compared to 2008.

Capital expenditures were $26 million during the quarter and for the full year are expected to be comparable to the 2008 expenditure level as the Company completes projects in process. After the current projects are completed in 2009, the Company expects its capital expenditure levels to be reduced to approximately the level of its depreciation until there is greater certainty regarding market recovery.

Market Outlook

The second quarter has seen some improvement in commodity demand. The vast majority of the improvement came from China, where copper imports have recently been at record levels. However, China has previously alternated between periods of copper destocking and restocking, and it appears that this import surge will become China's largest restocking cycle.

Although steel production year-over-year through April was down 23 percent worldwide and down approximately 40 percent ex-China, steel production was up modestly in China. Chinese iron ore imports have recently been at record levels, and metallurgical coal shipments from Australia were up 4.2 million metric tons from the December quarter. Despite the strength of China steel production, its steel exports are down 60 percent from last year, and the Company believes it is unlikely that China can maintain current levels of steel production without increased exports.

Mining companies made quick and decisive production cuts in their Australian operations late last year, and a reduction of coal exports by 12 percent was realized by the fourth quarter. More recently, Australia is benefiting from the higher met coal demand from China's increased steel production and from increased demand from India, where power plant stockpiles have declined to just seven days of supply. As a result, Australian coal exports are up and production is being increased at some mines.

The U.S. coal market is a contrast to the seaborne market. Domestic coal producers are suffering from reduced demand from power generation, significantly reduced demand from steel makers, and a stronger U.S. dollar that reduces the competitiveness of exports. U.S. electricity demand is down by 3.4 percent this year on top of a 0.9 percent drop last year. Coal demand is down additionally because low natural gas prices make it attractive to dispatch plants that burn gas rather than coal. In addition, steel production is down over 50 percent in the U.S., and the industry is running at just over 40 percent of capacity utilization. And finally, the stronger U.S. dollar will reduce coal exports by 15 to 20 million tons this year, effectively erasing the increases of last year. As a result of these factors, it is expected that demand for domestic coal will decline by 9 percent this year, which would be the largest decline in tonnage since 1954.

Although there are cautionary elements in the market outlook, there are also reasons to be optimistic.

Excess supply of natural gas at low prices is not sustainable. Natural gas wells deplete rapidly, the U.S. rig count is down over 50 percent, and it is estimated to take gas prices of $7.00 per million BTU's to restart drilling programs. This provides a long-term floor to eastern U.S. coal prices of $70-$80 per ton. China and India continue to invest in expansion of their respective domestic coal industries to meet their long-term energy needs and are increasingly building their futures around modern, state-of-the-art mining technology. In China, the number of companies importing high-productivity mining equipment continues to grow. In addition, some of the mid-tier Chinese producers are beginning to transition their fleet from domestic to imported equipment. Despite an increased level of investment, China remains a net importer of coal and this should have a favorable impact on the seaborne markets. Producer costs have declined with commodity prices, and the threshold for returns on new projects has been reduced. With oil nearing $70 per barrel and copper prices recovered to $2.00 per pound, projects are being reconsidered.

Company Outlook

The Company believes that over the near term, original equipment bookings will remain well below the record pace of last year and more in line with the rates of new orders received during the first two quarters of this year. Future original equipment orders over the near term will most likely come from the emerging markets, international coal, South American copper, and the oil sands.

Based on some slowing in aftermarket order rates and the impact from earlier cancellations and reschedules, the Company now expects the revenues for fiscal 2009 to be in the lower half of the prior guidance range. Conversely, the Company expects earnings per share to continue to benefit from cost and efficiency efforts and therefore to be in the upper half of its prior guidance range, including any costs for restructuring to be recorded in the second half. As a result, the Company now expects fiscal 2009 revenues to be between $3.5 billion and $3.6 billion and earnings per fully diluted share to be between $3.80 and $4.00.

"We have gained increased confidence in our fiscal 2009 and increased clarity into fiscal 2010," Sutherlin continued. "We have had intensive discussions with our customers as we worked closely with them to cancel and reschedule equipment necessary for their financial stability. I believe these discussions have generated substantial goodwill. The changes we have made in our backlog risk assessment have not changed our overall revenue expectations. In fact, they have provided greater certainty of those revenues. We still expect 2009 revenues to meet our original guidance, and we continue to expect 2010 revenues to be lower than 2009 unless our markets begin to improve in the interim. Therefore, during the second half of this year, we will begin to adjust costs consistent with the 2010 outlook. As a result, we expect to incur approximately $10 million of charges during the second half of fiscal 2009, primarily associated with severance benefits. If our markets remain at their current levels, we would expect 2011 to reach cycle trough conditions with revenues down as much as 40 percent from their peak."

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 04, 2009 at 12:00 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

These are various thought-provoking excerpts from their conference call. Please pardon the formatting issues:

I want to take a few minutes to update on the market outlook. Today our markets provide both encouragement and caution.
China best represents the encouragement and the US the caution. China has resumed imports with a vengeance, but is this
really sustainable? China has a historical pattern of destocking and restocking copper and the current record level of copper
imports looks to be China's strongest stocking -- excuse me -- strongest restocking cycle to date. China's steel production is up
modestly, while its steel exports are down 60% to their lowest level since 2006. Iron ore imports are at record levels and met
coal imports are up strongly as a result.. At this rate China will build 100 million tons of steel inventories by year end. Therefore,
does it not seem that this surge of commodity imports can be sustained. In fact, sustained demand from China for copper, iron
ore and met coal will require significantly increased exports or stronger recovery in the domestic markets, or both.

There's other good news in our markets. Natural gas surpluses in the US will deplete rapidly without drilling and drilling requires
gas above $7. This equates to Central Appalachian coal prices above $70 to $80 per ton. Overall mine production costs are
down, which reduces the ROI threshold for expansion projects. There are numerous signs of -- in the broader economy of
stabilizing, which is a necessary precursor to real recovery. The global market economy has been aggressively destocking and
this will cause demand to increase strongly when the recovery does begin. And finally, and most significant for our investors,
this industry has cut back quickly and dramatically leaving very little excess capacity. This will put the industry into expansion
mode soon into the start of recovery. As a result, I believe there is now more risk to the upside than to the downside and is really
a great time to be in the mining industry if you have the financial stability to weather a few more bumps.

I'll give you a few answers that'll -- together will answer that question, because I'm always a bit of a cautionary -- call me skeptic,
if you want to, so I'm not saying the economy's going to start -- they're turning the corner and this is up and away. I'm still very
cautious. You can see the comments about China and I just don't believe that the China demand is sustainable at current levels,
and there's going to be some corrections there/ But there are some factors that are positive, even if the economy doesn't begin
to feel the impact of all the stimulus packages. One of them is that the economy has been massively destocking, and we can't
continue to run industrial production at current rates.
They've got to come back to at least the level of ongoing demand, and so that's -- there is some embedded recovery in the
industrial sector as a result of that and that's going to happen whether the economy improves or not, and we can just see that
throughout. And almost every time we turn around, things that would otherwise be in inventory are now things you have to
order, and we're talking about from our supply chain but also just personally. My son went down and got some new tires for
his pickup and it's a three-month waiting for just normal tires. If you look at that destocking element on the economy and what
it means when the economy gets back to the level of end-use demand that's a higher number from we are today.

No, we have customers that are projecting ahead and it's a long-cycle business, so if people believe that there's a strong need
for additional capacity out two or three years they've got to be making those decisions now, or soon, to be able to be there in
two or three years. So we are starting to see active discussions. Some of the projects are back on the table. Some of the equipment
-- like we said, some of the LOIs that were put on hold as we finished last year are now back on the table for discussion, so some
of those earlier machines are back actively being moved toward contracts. So the customers view right now is that the worst
is behind us and now we need to be looking at growth going forward and what the markets look like. So we're seeing much
more positive attitude on the part of the customers, probably with the exception of the US coal customers, which are still cutting
their productions.
Australian guys have already cut their production and they're seeing that come back. Iron ore guys have cut production and
see that come back, at least the Australian and Brazilian iron ore producers have. Copper prices have cut back pretty dramatically
and are now seeing price and volumes begin to come back a bit. So the customers are getting more of a view that they need
to be looking at capacity to demand and when those curves cross again and what they need to be doing now to prepare for
that. The discussions have turned much more positive and their attitudes are much more positive.
Now whether they're -- we saw orders in our second quarter, we'll see orders for equipment here over the rest of there year, so
that equipment order rate's not going to zero but it is been reduced quite a bit and we'll see that focused on the -- in the regions
and the commodities that have the highest growth potential and highest profit potential. So I don't see, for example, North
American copper mines coming back on line any time soon. Those were cycle peak pricing operations and I don't think that
they're going to be on the verge of coming back on, but I do see mine expansions in Chile going forward in the near term. So
we'll have mines that'll stay closed and idle in North America for copper and we'll see new mine expansions in Chile in the near
term as people move to a new set of economics.

Well, as we look at the market by now we're -- you can run the numbers on the trough conditions, but we're looking at the first
half of 2010 to be a little bit lower than the current run rate in 2009, the second half to step down a bit, and then get down to
trough conditions by 2011. So you can start to put some numbers in there and get probably pretty close to what those would
look like. It's not a cliff here at the end of this year to a level production rate for 2010. It is a -- we'll enter 2010 with backlog that
we'll be shipping in addition to turning the incoming order rates at that time. So we'll be helped in 2010 by the incoming backlog
and that will deplete during the course of the year with more depletion in the first half than the second half.

 

 

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#2) On June 04, 2009 at 5:59 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.56) wrote:

Here's the corresponding TMF article, Fools:

All Hail the Oracle of Milwaukee

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2009/06/04/all-hail-the-oracle-of-milwaukee.aspx

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#3) On June 09, 2009 at 1:06 PM, kstarich (30.94) wrote:

Sinch

If you have a moment, take a minute to read my blog about silver.  This is a must read for anyone interested in silver.  I too am in BUCY and JOYG.  I have been swing trading both since April.  I live iin WI. and know people who work at both.

Here is my blog

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=208714&t=01002395949742885493

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#4) On June 09, 2009 at 5:03 PM, goldminingXpert (29.52) wrote:

I think you'll enjoy this blog post. Just posting this in case you don't see it by other means.

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