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One Best, One Worst for 2009

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December 31, 2008 – Comments (28)

Call it another unofficial contest.  I want everyone to post one stock to go long, and one stock to go short, in other words one best, one worst, for calendar year 2009.  We'll take the closing price of 12/31/08 and compare it to the closing cost of 12/31/09.  Scores will be tabulated as though you had bought 100 shares of your best and shorted 100 shares of your worst, and then add up the change year-over-year.  Highest score wins.  Winner gets an emoticon high five, or if you are a cute girl, an emoticon hug and kiss.  You may also take your prize in the form of a firehug, but you'd have to come to LA for that.

Please post your picks as I have, best followed by ticker, followed by closing price 12/31/08, and same with the worst.

My predictions:

Best: DNDN - 4.58 (expect provenge approval from a competent FDA)

Worst: RYL - 17.67

I had a lot to choose from on the downside.  I was thinking GM, then thought PHM, but then I realized RYL had the most downside.  On the upside I was thinking my favorite blue chipper DD or maybe going with an oil play like HP, but in the end I'll stick with the most speculative of them all.

28 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 31, 2008 at 5:01 PM, kali77 (99.55) wrote:

Nice idea.

 

worst: FCCE.OB - 28.50 expected to be long gone by 12/31/09

best: MITSY- 205.01

There were a lot of choices for me in  both categories with Oil and Gold plays leading the way for me on the upside and Real Estate(commercial and residential) leading the downside. However I think MITSY has the cash flow to really make a strong move in 09' and FCCE.OB is just garbage IMHO.

 Happy New Years

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#2) On December 31, 2008 at 5:26 PM, rwandamassacre (99.77) wrote:

Best: UNT - 26.72

Worst: AIG - 1.57

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#3) On December 31, 2008 at 5:45 PM, SuperPicks (29.03) wrote:

BEST: OPXT (1.75 @ 12/31)

WORST: PNK (7.68 @ 12/31) - too bad I couldnt get a real short in real life yet...let me know if anyone has luck at this. 

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#4) On December 31, 2008 at 6:24 PM, starbucks4ever (97.36) wrote:

best: TNA 34.09

worst: TZA 47.89

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#5) On December 31, 2008 at 6:32 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Best: TGC- 0.62     

Worse: LVS- 5.93   

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#6) On December 31, 2008 at 7:03 PM, joeykid13 wrote:

Best: MCD 62.19

Worst: GM 3.20

Predictions for 12/2009

MCD: 93.29

GM: Delisted

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#7) On December 31, 2008 at 7:20 PM, rd80 (98.45) wrote:

Best:  TBT 37.73

Worst:  BRK-A 96600

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#8) On December 31, 2008 at 10:50 PM, BradAllenton (31.41) wrote:

Best: PFE    28$

Worst: GM   .00$

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#9) On December 31, 2008 at 11:25 PM, daayoo (< 20) wrote:

Best: LPHI 43.64

Worst: MAC 18.14

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#10) On January 01, 2009 at 7:07 AM, kaskoosek (61.54) wrote:

rd80

 

Can I get your reasoning on the berkshire pick,

 

My picks

Best: ERX

Worst: OSTK

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#11) On January 01, 2009 at 8:23 AM, DaretothREdux (43.51) wrote:

Best: DXO 2.55

Worst: TLT 119.35

I should pick the stock that shorts the dollar for best and the one that bulls the dollar for worst but it could be another year or two before the real trouble starts.

And Demon if you haven't read it yet you should check out my newest blog. It's about our good friend Alstry.

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#12) On January 01, 2009 at 9:05 AM, falang1 (96.04) wrote:

Best:  LEA @ 1.41 (dang, missed the 1.15 yesterday)

 Worst:  DTO @ 146.03

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#13) On January 01, 2009 at 10:12 AM, tcss007 (92.51) wrote:

Best: DEO 36.74

Worst: OSTK 10.78

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#14) On January 01, 2009 at 10:35 AM, kaskoosek (61.54) wrote:

My picks

Best: ERX 38.98

Worst: OSTK 10.78

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#15) On January 01, 2009 at 11:56 AM, eldemonio (98.92) wrote:

Best 2009 - FNXMF.PK @ 2.69 12/31/08

Worst 2009 - GKM @ 11.80 12/31/08

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#16) On January 01, 2009 at 3:13 PM, rd80 (98.45) wrote:

kaskoosek - If I read DemoDoug's scoring system right, the game will be based on a hypothetical dollar return from buying and shorting 100 shares of our best and worst picks.  That math favors high price-per-share stocks.

I wanted BRK-A for one of the picks because of its high pps.  No clue if guessed right picking it as worst rather than best.

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#17) On January 01, 2009 at 7:13 PM, aracer (99.69) wrote:

I see some intelligent picks above. My predictions:

Best: FFH - 313.73

Worst: ALX - 258.14

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#18) On January 02, 2009 at 3:07 AM, monksnake (38.41) wrote:

Best:   DXO  Prediction UP 500%

Worst: DTO  Prediction Down 80%

Why Not? 

 

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#19) On January 02, 2009 at 5:07 AM, torque63 (< 20) wrote:

Best: ATVI - 8.64

Worst: SHLD - 38.87

Gaming up and Retail down for '09.

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#20) On January 02, 2009 at 9:43 AM, rwandamassacre (99.77) wrote:

My picks were based on percentage return. If the contest is based on dollar return, I withdraw from the competition.

 

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#21) On January 02, 2009 at 6:44 PM, Bays (30.25) wrote:

Best: DNN - $1.18  (a bet on uranium and nuclear power)

Worst: OZOM.OB - $7.00

This is assuming were basing this contest on a percentage return, which makes a little more sense.  

 

 

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#22) On January 02, 2009 at 10:05 PM, DemonDoug (82.62) wrote:

RD is correct - it's a dollar return, not a percentage.  The reason I did it that way is that anyone can find a 12 cent stock that will be zero by may, so I wanted to reward people who picked stocks with higher values.  Going with BRK-A is an interesting strategy in this case.  It could easily backfire though with the most negative score in the contest, in fact it might be likely that 100 shares of BRK would completely determine the outcome.

Percentage return would make more sense if this was a purely stock picking exercise.  This way is a lot more nuanced.  And also makes it more realistic - shorting OSTK at 10 is much more possible than shorting wamuq.pk at 2 cents/share.  Okay that's a bit extreme, but I wanted all stocks in play (not just the caps ratable ones), however I created the criteria based more on utility.

How many of you would consider shorting GM at 3.50?  I wouldn't, I'd be insanely afraid of getting caught in a short squeeze.  But what about AZO at 140?  a company with a high p/e and high debt that looks to be in an industry that will also be affected in the recession.  The point of this exercise was to have a bit more utility in the discussion, as in bets that you could and would consider making.  Shorting RYL over 25 to me in a no-brainer, you're just stealing money from some sucker who is buying.

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#23) On January 04, 2009 at 2:04 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

High-RIG (or VE, SBS, RIO, RTP, POT)

Low-AAPL

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#24) On January 04, 2009 at 2:10 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

High-RIG (or VE, SBS, RIO, RTP, POT)

Low-AAPL

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#25) On January 04, 2009 at 9:21 PM, SuperPicks (29.03) wrote:

hah! i thought your original intent was really best percentage performers especially after judging your picks (dndn for outperform).

even with dndn going up 500% and ryl going to pennies, your max nominal dollar gain for 100 shares each is capped around $4,000.

if one picks brk.a to outperform or underperform, it only takes ONE TENTH of one percentage point to make roughly a $10,000 movement, therefore wiping out any of your two picks.

therefore, if this was about real percentage performance, I would stick to my original picks on this post.  dndn looks like an excellent potential for percentage gain too. 

but to play by the 100 share rule, well then, my picks would be modified to:

SHORT brk.a @ 12/31/07 - 96,600

BUY fmbl @ 12/31/07 -  3,999.99

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#26) On January 04, 2009 at 11:12 PM, rwandamassacre (99.77) wrote:

Ok, here are my new picks based on your "dollar return" criterion:

Buy: Amfi Corp. (other OTC: AFIPA.PK) -- $76,000

Sell: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) -- $99,990

 

 

 

 

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#27) On January 06, 2009 at 3:07 PM, DemonDoug (82.62) wrote:

Next year I'll do the same thing just maybe limit the share price. :P

BTW closing price of BRK-A on 12/31/08 was 96,600, so that's the starting price for the brk-a enthusiasts.

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#28) On February 11, 2010 at 9:21 PM, pjani06 (29.27) wrote:

wow, f'in amazing call on DNDN Demon, bravo

I'll search ur blogs to see if u did one of these for 2010

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