No, 0.25% and 0.5% will not do the trick because Bernanke knows that the market already expects something more than 0.5% and less than 0.75%. Now, 0.75% would be a surprise, but it won't really shock anyone, and Bernanke understands that a failed attempt to shock the market means one more wasted arrow in his quiver. 1.25% would be radical indeed, but it could raise the concern that he is spending his arrows too fast or create a panic on the oil futures market. To cut 1.25% and announce that this cut will be the last one would help avoid the dollar panic, but it would run contrary to Bernanke's intentions, because he knows he is going to go all the way to zero. So a 1% cut looks the most likely.