OldWeller (70.15)

Out of the Gates

April 26, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: FED , WMAR

Ever wonder what it would feel like to walk into a Vegas Casino and randomly pick 10 roulette numbers and put about a hundred bucks down on each? 

I think it would be very exciting.  But I also know better and while I might get lucky, I realize that the house clearly has an advantage.  Although in the stock market there isn't a strict payout rule and no clear house ... we each are just as likely to win or lose. Right?

So today I started in earnest my CAPS profile and portfolio.  I picked a few stocks that I either actually own or have owned or just simply follow.  Most of those are 4 and 5 star stocks and a few I added pitch's to.  But then to really spice things up and play around I started what would be a "short" fund.  Basically I took the CAPS list of coldest 1 star stocks and predicted they would all underperform the S&P 500. 

Mixed with my initial picks I did fairly well the first day.  Rating was up to 64.5 and score was 8.96.

But honestly, the "Short" fund lost with a combined score of -1.52 even though I was accurate on 6 of 8 picks.  (There were only 8 active of the 9 stocks I plugged in as 1 is still pending)  So within the CAPS game I would say it was a good move ... accuracy like that was worth a small point hit.  Of course this is only day one.  I need to wait at least a week to see how it truly pans out. 

 Among those 8 cold stocks two were big gainers (ouch when shorting) ... FED made a huge move and was up nearly 10% on the day.  In the middle of the day it was up over 16%!  WMAR also made a 5% move that hurt a bit.  Of the other 6 there was IMB which was the best (meaning worst in reality) performer as it lost 5% on the day.  So it will be real interesting to see how the Short Fund plays out after a week!

Last note for the day .... BOLT was a great success for me!  It was up 5.34% yesterday.  Can't say I knew anything special, just had a gut feeling about that stock and the energy market. 

If you found my ideas or picks interesting let me know!  And contrarians are welcome too!

Til the next post.... Old Weller & Coke is all you need!