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Outperforms, me?

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August 07, 2010 – Comments (4)

Well, I finally did a few outperform picks, all in the energy sector.  I did not spend time looking at my picks in detail so I would not blindly follow them with real money without due diligence, but, here is why I picked the sector.

I am still in the deflationary camp, but I believe that currently energy has some deflationary protection.  Evidence suggests that we are over the top half of peak oil, meaning that oil production is declining.  Because of the economic decline, there is also demand destruction, but I think the decline in oil production helps to offset the demand destruction and keep the demand for energy to a level that even in a tough economy there is still pricing power by industry. It is also a used up consumable.

To reiterate here, I did not look closely at my picks.  I only spent about a minute looking at each pick, they are simply in the energy industry and when I looked at these ones the graphs suggested they gave back more of the oil bubble peaks then some of the others.  The graphs may also be suggesting some other problems, but I didn't spend the time to check.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 07, 2010 at 10:43 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I did not spend time looking at my picks in detail

...

I did not look closely at my picks.  I only spent about a minute looking at each pick

...

I didn't spend the time to check

 

how many years do you need to have more than a few seconds to "look at your picks"?

just joking ...

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#2) On August 07, 2010 at 10:47 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Welcome back in the game ...

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#3) On August 07, 2010 at 11:24 AM, dwot (53.97) wrote:

This has always just been a game for me...

In real life I still think there will be another correction with the commercial real estate losses and the pressure from declining government budgets, but I have a few much better informed contacts on the energy industry then I am so it is where I will be spending more time looking.

But, this last year has been busy.  I put a suite in my home, got the windows and furnace replaced and I still have quite a bit of work left to go.  I think I also have a much busier teaching year ahead.  A small school leaves a lot more challenges in terms of trying to reach the needs of all your students.  There isn't room to have separate courses for math with different grades and abilities, or any subject.  To date all of my classes have had two grades of students and all learning abilities for a huge learning range.  I have tried to give independent lessons for students on the extremes of the learning range, but it just doesn't work with all the other activity and distractions in a classroom.  So, this year, once again we are regrouping trying to figure out how to meet such a wide range of needs and it is looking like a lot of work...

My financial position is pretty good these days so protecting wealth is simply a bigger priority for me and I still see a lot of problems in the economy that I don't think the market has adequately considered. Report this comment
#4) On August 12, 2010 at 11:16 AM, RookieQB (28.73) wrote:

To protect your wealth are you staying in all cash?

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