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IBDvalueinvestin (99.68)

Overall GDP numbers "Much Better than Expected"

Recs

7

July 30, 2010 – Comments (14)

I was expecting GDP to be off a cliff after the massive selloff we had since April.

GDP for Q1 was revised upward from +2.7% to +3.7% and Q2 preliminary at +2.4% vs. +2.5%

Q2 Chain Deflator advanced +1.8% vs +1.1%

Q2 Employment Cost Index +0.5% vs +0.5%

All in all numbers look so much better than how the market has reacted since April with a bloody off the cliff type market move.








14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 30, 2010 at 9:08 AM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

The NYTimes was reporting this as a sign of more slowdown, but to me I would agree with IBD.  This seems much more positive a picture than what we were seeing two months ago.

1st quarter GDP growth revised upwards almost 50%,  and the second quarter GDP growth near 2.5%.  These revisions are more in line with the current rounds of earnings reports, where the majority of companies are beating estimates and raising guidance.  Much of the double dip uncertainty has been due to Europe and the oil spill.  Both issues are resolving in positive directions.  I would expect to see a robust rally this fall in the markets, heading back to S&P 1200.

 -Rof 

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#2) On July 30, 2010 at 10:43 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Oil spill is almost non-existant now , There is no more surface oil in the gulf since the pipe was capped the second time.

Businesses in the Gulf should slowly climb back to life.

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#3) On July 30, 2010 at 11:02 AM, Varchild2008 (85.33) wrote:

I agree but there are 2 worlds here...

World 1 is looking at how cheap the Stock Market is trading below DOW 11,000 and below S&P 1150..... 

And then there is the overall economic trends which do indicate a pretty steep slowdown. 

Take out the Federal Spending in the GDP numbers and you wallah!  You just got the CLIFF FALL that the stock market predicted for this quarter.

Defense spending surged up 7.4%  and spending outside of defense up over 13% for Q2. 

So...  I would look at how much the GDP went up stripping out the Government's impact to GDP.

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#4) On July 30, 2010 at 11:48 AM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

Have to agree with Varchild. The huge upwards revision for Q1 actually looks like a huge negative...the actual slowdown is much worse than anticipated.  With the consumer spending component coming in weak, you can ignore a lot of the other "noise".  In addition, a surge in new home construction boosted the Q2 number, and we know that this will be a drag on Q3.  Lastly, with a different Fed official coming out every day to say that the Fed will act aggresively if the recovery falters, I would bet that they consider the "recovery" dead already.

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#5) On July 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Chicago PMI Shows Unexpected Acceleration in Manufacturing Activities
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July from Kingsbury International, Ltd., revealed that manufacturing production unexpectedly accelerated in the month. The index improved from 59.1 in June to 62.3 in July. The Briefing.com consensus called for the index to decline to 56.3. The market has reacted favorably to the first acceleration in the general business activity index since it reached a peak of 63.8 in April. The index, though, has been performing consistently well since January. This July report marks the first time since April that all seven components of the index were in an expansion phase, which is signaled by a reading above 50. Production, new orders, and backlogs - the backbone for steady business activity - all accelerated in July. Further, with the production and new orders indexes well above 60, it would take a sizable softening in the economy for manufacturing activity to return to a contraction phase. In other details: The employment index increased from 54.2 in June to 56.6 in July, which could signal growth in manufacturing hires. Inventories rose from 54.2 in June to 50.8 in July. The prices paid index decelerated from 61.9 to 58.1 as pricing pressures eased during the month. Supplier deliveries also decelerated from 60.7 to 59.4, its weakest reading since March.

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#6) On July 30, 2010 at 10:19 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

IBD:

 If its any consolation, you have become my contratrian indicator:

June 30th post:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/time-to-go-to-all-cash/414123

You pretty much nailed the bottom within 2%, except you SOLD at the bottom instead of bought at the bottom.  Congrats! 

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#7) On August 01, 2010 at 11:17 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Simplemts, contrary to your strategy I do not need to follow or go against someone to be brave enough to execute or not to excecute a trade, by the way July 1st was the bottom on this latest downturn, not June 30th.

Like I said many times before, everyone involved in the market is in it for one thing "To make $$$$"

I am quick enough to adjust my portfolio to profit from any trend change.

I am no longer either an ultra-bear or an ultra-bull.

As long as the market trades sideways, I will jump sides on any given day.

 

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#8) On August 01, 2010 at 11:51 PM, goalie37 (91.52) wrote:

My prediction on GDP was much lower than the number that came in.  I am very glad to see it.  The conspiracy theorist in me does worry that next month they will revise that number down, followed by a second revision after that.  I'm hoping I'm wrong again.

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#9) On August 02, 2010 at 12:33 AM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

"by the way July 1st was the bottom on this latest downturn, not June 30th."

 Are you retarted or just slow??? Nowhere did I say that day was the EXACT bottom.  If you sold at 675 on the S&P I can easily say you "sold on the bottom" even if it was not at 666.  Where do you come up with your material?  Take it back to the store and buy something new, its old, tired, and useless.

 The market has been the following:

March 2009 - April 2010: Up

April 2010 - July 2010: Down

July 2010 - August 2010: Up

Not much of a "sideways" market that justifies flipping around like a fish on land really.  Going up and down for 3 days at a time is not a "Trend" as you put it in your post.  If you want to say it is sideways, fine, but do not act like you are something special:

 "I do not need to follow or go against someone to be brave enough to execute or not to excecute a trade"

A man is not brave who is a coward and a follower.  Make bolder claims like "this week will be up" or "Tomorrow will be up 1%".  All you post is "sell" after 3 dwon days at the bottom of a correction.  Key work....  AFTER.  How is brave to provide commentary on what has already happened?

 Hey all, I am here to advise everybody the market had a huge runup since March 2009.  I'm brave.

Why not actually be a brave man and call next week up or down?  Why not put up your real life holdings and let us watch how they do this week? 

 

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#10) On August 02, 2010 at 3:05 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

simplemts ,

 

I am not here to argue with you, this is not suppose to be a yahoo type message board of rude and relentless attacks on people's posts or character.

If you don't like my posts then don't read them, and I never claimed to be something special. 

Remember in the market there is no room for emotion. If you let emotion dictate your trades you will end up losing the majority of the time.

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#11) On August 02, 2010 at 3:12 PM, Dow3000 (< 20) wrote:

I seem to recall (not from personal experience) that in 1929 the stock market was pretty darn robust....until..........oh, and the economy sucked then too but don't worry...now we have even more "financial innovation"....haha, I can't wait til every last one of the banks goes under.

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#12) On August 02, 2010 at 4:01 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

"Remember in the market there is no room for emotion. If you let emotion dictate your trades you will end up losing the majority of the time. "

 You should follow your own advice, and not flip flop each day based on where the market WAS not where it is GOING.  Your "Sell sell sell" at the bottom clearly shows you are emotional and are a "sheep" amongst the wolves. 

"If you don't like my posts then don't read them, and I never claimed to be something special."

Actually, you bragged about your score and how you were "better" than me, a person who only adds tickers to watch them and is not really playing the game at all.

 "If you don't like my posts then don't read them"

I already told you, that you were my contrarian indicator.  I am focusing on doing the opposite of your market calls so I can make a lot of money.

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#13) On August 02, 2010 at 4:01 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

"Remember in the market there is no room for emotion. If you let emotion dictate your trades you will end up losing the majority of the time. "

 You should follow your own advice, and not flip flop each day based on where the market WAS not where it is GOING.  Your "Sell sell sell" at the bottom clearly shows you are emotional and are a "sheep" amongst the wolves. 

"If you don't like my posts then don't read them, and I never claimed to be something special."

Actually, you bragged about your score and how you were "better" than me, a person who only adds tickers to watch them and is not really playing the game at all.

 "If you don't like my posts then don't read them"

I already told you, that you were my contrarian indicator.  I am focusing on doing the opposite of your market calls so I can make a lot of money.

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#14) On August 02, 2010 at 11:35 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

LOL,

I will keep that in mind simplemts..

 

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