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IBDvalueinvestin (99.68)

People laughed when I said 7,500 DJIA retest is a certainty about 3 weeks ago.

Recs

5

February 17, 2009 – Comments (20)

But who has the last laugh now. Only  74 points away from the re-test.. and hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars running out of equities and heading into GOLD. 

AU, AEM, ABX, GDX, GLD, GG, GOLD, NG, RGLD, UXG 

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 17, 2009 at 1:13 PM, Bays (30.13) wrote:

Gold and silver mining compaines are getting dangerously high... don't you think?

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#2) On February 17, 2009 at 1:18 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

HMM well if gold surges to what some experts say by 2013 like $5000/oz or $2000/oz by end of 2009. Then you are buying the stocks and gold at a 50% discount  today.

 

So that would imply a strict no they are not high.

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#3) On February 17, 2009 at 1:24 PM, smersche (74.43) wrote:

I admit I'm a total investing novice, but I had a question about investing in gold.  I looked at the breakdown of demand for gold, and I found a chart that said it was 14% industrial, 13% investment, and 73% jewellery.  So, in a recession like this, wouldn't we expect the decrease in demand for jewellery (and industrial uses) to more than offset any increased investment demand?  And the long-term price of gold to fall as demand declines? 

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#4) On February 17, 2009 at 1:28 PM, SideShowMel0329 (43.01) wrote:

smersche

smersche, you are exactly right. Listen to your own research and don't touch gold with a 10 foot pole. It's on a bubble right now, huge increases in value during a recession for no other reason than fear.

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#5) On February 17, 2009 at 1:42 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Ever notice that certain times during a crisis you can not put a simple reason to why not to invest in gold.

Instead try and come up with reasons why to invest in Gold.

Falling currencies worldwide = Switching to Gold Bullion by World Banks instead of currencies.

 GOLD is not an unlimited source like paper money which can be printed and thus be devalued due to - "too much supply". 

When you think of buying gold think like Bear of paper currencies would think.

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#6) On February 17, 2009 at 2:00 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

HMM well if gold surges to what some experts say by 2013 like $5000/oz or $2000/oz by end of 2009. Then you are buying the stocks and gold at a 50% discount  today.

Conversely, if gold stays where it is or drops like other experts say, you're left having paid top dollar by buying into the peak of a gold bubble. People flock to gold during times of uncertainty.  They always have.  The time to buy gold is at the BOTTOM, not the top.

I like to buy stuff when it's cheap. 

Replace "gold" with "housing" or "tech stocks" and reread some of the goldbugs' posts.  The numbers and years change, but otherwise you wouldn't be able to tell.

Every time you buy an ounce of gold or a hot gold mining stock, someone else has sold it. 

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#7) On February 17, 2009 at 2:10 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

djemonk that post is too funny, if there is no seller , how would you buy anything with an illiquid market. Sort of would turn into an auction rate security market.

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#8) On February 17, 2009 at 2:11 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

I want to disclaim that this is just my opinion.  However, I do believe that we're in the midst of a couple asset bubbles right now and gold is, IMHO, the major one.  The time to buy gold, again IMO, is when the economy is booming but the signs of stress are showing.  I bought gold back in 2000 and sold in 2001.

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#9) On February 17, 2009 at 2:14 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

the Economy was not booming in 2000-2001 , it was in the same situation it is now 2008-2009.

So based on your timing , now is the time to buy because Gold surged between 2001-2006 and stayed flat for 2006-2009

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#10) On February 17, 2009 at 2:21 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

djemonk that post is too funny, if there is no seller , how would you buy anything with an illiquid market. Sort of would turn into an auction rate security market.

My point is that someone is on the other end of the trade, and that person may know something you don't.

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#11) On February 17, 2009 at 2:23 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

or he may be just booking profit and lose it somewhere else like out of the Gold sector.

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#12) On February 17, 2009 at 2:25 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

So based on your timing , now is the time to buy because Gold surged between 2001-2006 and stayed flat for 2006-2009

I'm not really sure where you're getting this idea. We were in the midst of a bubble in 2000.  I was just saying that the better strategy is to buy assets when something ELSE is in a bubble.

You're advocating buying gold now, close to its relative peak, based entirely on speculation that it will go up multiple times in value.  That's fine, and that may work out for you, and I'm just trying to present a counterpoint.  

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#13) On February 17, 2009 at 2:25 PM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

or he may be just booking profit and lose it somewhere else like out of the Gold sector.

 

Okay, you're clearly just looking to argue.  I'll leave you to it. 

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#14) On February 17, 2009 at 2:41 PM, BradAllenton (31.30) wrote:

I laughed when you said stuff like this.

"I wanna see that 470K short position on FAS at $8.74 now try and cover. Bunch of idiot daytraders."

"Stocks will make a rebound in a very quick hurry and then will leave many wondering how they missed the bottom"

"I will just keep laughing at your stupidity because all you are doing is giving me and the others on the sidelines better and better values. Keep shorting all you want, but sooner rather than later you will either get crushed for being too late to the trigger or will believe in your own misery and miss the chance to go long"

"Stocks officially now on Fire, the top gainers are showing huge volume"

"Cramer just turned Bullish on the Market"

"BULL MARKET rearing its head. How to Profit"

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#15) On February 17, 2009 at 2:50 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

LMFAO - on those days those statements made sense for the day. On these days after seeing what was eliminated from the stimulus and was not, points to a more dire direction.

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#16) On February 17, 2009 at 2:51 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

By the way I was mocking Cramer. You actually think I was bullish on his call? LOL

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#17) On February 17, 2009 at 3:00 PM, BradAllenton (31.30) wrote:

Ok so after you get hosed and are dead wrong you change your mind. Great strategy!

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#18) On February 17, 2009 at 3:21 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Ok Brad so I should stay bullish by being stubborn as u suggest another great strategy. Lose it all by being stubborn.

 You can't be a stubborn person to invest in the market. You have to be able to change direction with the waves quickly. Otherwise a tidal wave will wipe you out.

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#19) On February 17, 2009 at 3:42 PM, BradAllenton (31.30) wrote:

I think you should stick to C.Ds because you clearly have no idea how to play the market.

BTW- You have been the stubborn one all along by fighting the tape. Maybe you should TALK LESS AND LISTEN MORE.

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#20) On February 17, 2009 at 3:47 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.68) wrote:

Watch Gold Crash on Wed. after today's big up day. But longterm its a buy after tomorrow's crash.

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