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alstry (36.06)

Perception is a Deception

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July 21, 2009 – Comments (12)

Headline:

U.S. Futures Advance After Caterpillar Profit Beats Estimates by 50 Cents

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rally above yesterday’s eight-month high, as Caterpillar Inc.’s profit that was three times analysts’ estimates spurred bets the recession is ending.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axtmEUadnpu4

No where in the article does it mention the following:

Revenue slid 41 percent to $7.98 billion.

41%!!!!

Caterpiller's sales are down by almost half and you are supposed to believe that somehow conditions are positive?

Maybe that is why half the architects are unemployed?  At the end of the day, it is sales that drive an economy......and if business ain't selling, there is no economy.

Let's look at DuPont:

Net sales fell 22 percent to $6.86 billion.

DuPont has eliminated 4,500 jobs since late last year as part of its efforts slash costs to cope with the slowdown in demand from the auto, construction and industrial markets.

DuPont posted a 61 percent drop in quarterly profit.

Less sales, Less profit, Less jobs, Less taxes to government.....you think that is a positive?

Before we go, let's go back and look at Catepillar's profits that analysts are cheering:

Caterpillar 2nd-quarter profit tumbles 66 pct as recession continues to dampen equipment sales.

Again, Less Sales, Less jobs, Less Profits, Less taxes to government.....and Wall Street is cheering?

How many people are going to lose their income when California cuts $15 Billion in spending?

At this rate, it will not be long before so few have jobs that we are all cut and politicians need everything we have to stay in their jobs.

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 21, 2009 at 8:41 AM, alstry (36.06) wrote:

Less sales, Less jobs, Less profits, Less taxes

Slowdown in sales leads to job cuts leads to less sales leads to lower profits leads to less taxes leads to job cuts leads to less sales leads to lower profits...................................

Continental Airlines Posts Loss; Cuts 1,700 Jobs

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#2) On July 21, 2009 at 8:57 AM, alstry (36.06) wrote:

What happens when SALES CRASH!!!!!

Zions Bank said it set aside $762.7 million in provisions for loan losses during the second quarter, up from $297.6 million for the first quarter of 2009 and $114.2 million in the second quarter of 2008.  (5x last year and 2x last quarter)

"The increased provision resulted from continued deterioration in commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loan portfolios; re-estimation of certain of the company's loss reserve factors based on a newly updated migration analysis reflecting more recent loss experience; and to incorporate the possibility of a more protracted credit cycle," Zions said in a statement.

Continental, Southwest report revenue slump

UAL traffic down 17.2% in second quarter

Precision Castparts Inc. sales dropped to $1.38 billion from $1.81 billion (OVER 20%)

Regions Financial loan-loss provisions surged to $912 million from $425 million in the previous quarter and $309 million a year earlier.

Practically every company's sales are down double digits.....many OVER 20%....and GDP being reported down only 6%????

Maybe because a Depression is a 10% decline in GDP.

How low will sales go when people, businesses and government run out of money?

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#3) On July 21, 2009 at 9:21 AM, russiangambit (29.44) wrote:

And all this cost-cutting the companies are doing to beat the earnings, when translated inton plain English , it means - lay offs. Lay offs and higher unemployement and expect the repeat of the same in Q3.

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#4) On July 21, 2009 at 9:40 AM, alstry (36.06) wrote:

AND THE OUTLOOK IS GETTING WORSE AS MORE CUT!!!!

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Industrial conglomerate and Dow 30 component United Technologies Corp. said Tuesday it doesn't anticipate a significant economic recovery in 2010. Speaking on a post-earnings call with analysts, Chief Financial Officer Greg Hayes said the company will focus on cost cutting to grow its profit next year without much reliance on "top-line recovery."

Again.....as more and more cut....pretty soon, there will be nothing left to cut!

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#5) On July 21, 2009 at 9:50 AM, JTShideler (80.60) wrote:

I always felt like market reaction to Analysis estimates was stupid.  Why do we care if the results were less bad?  I also HATE how financial reporters will take one event and say that is the reason why the S&P 500 rallied.  There are BILLIONS of Individual Investors in the Market how do they know that they were reacting to the Catepillar news or something else.   

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#6) On July 21, 2009 at 10:19 AM, BlkAngus10 (35.92) wrote:

JT-

 I don't know that there are BILLIONS of individual investors in the market. What are there like 8 billion people on the earth? So at least 2 out of every 8 people on earth is an individual market participant? I doubt this is correct. Even in America, a relatively affluent country, to this day not everyone is an individual market participant.

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#7) On July 21, 2009 at 11:23 AM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

Only in America.

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#8) On July 21, 2009 at 11:51 AM, ralphmachio (26.19) wrote:

Alstry, why couldn't you just say your astrologer told you 90909 was the day that would mark the beginning of turmoil?  Where will Saturn be?  What has happened in the past during this alignment?  

Oh, the mystique...  And tomorrow's eclipse?  If your gonna have a baby, hold it in until the 23rd!  (at least in India)

On a different subject matter, I believe I have found the answer to your zombie problem.  Cold Steel makes an excellent solution called the Warrior katana.  It is 'battle ready' and over qualified to take care of all your zombie issues.  See cold steel videos... 

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#9) On July 21, 2009 at 12:24 PM, alstry (36.06) wrote:

ralph,

I could, but I would be lying and Alstry doesn't lie.

Further, the turmoil began already.

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#10) On July 21, 2009 at 2:20 PM, ralphmachio (26.19) wrote:

Alstry, at least you graced me with a clue.  

If I could infer that Alstry cannot lie, and he answers my questions no when I am wrong, what can I assume from no answer at all?  Am I so off track that you are concerned whether I'm taking my meds, or am I barking up the right tree that you cannot admit you know about?

 (don't answer if option 'b' applies.)

It's all a conspiracy! 

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#11) On July 21, 2009 at 10:55 PM, toopersent (81.15) wrote:

True, majority of costs are from employment, but cost cutting doesn't come from JUST laying off people...

 

just most of it.  I agree, top-line recovery is the key to seeing a recovery, and its going to be hard to do that with a double digit unemployment rate.

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#12) On July 22, 2009 at 3:27 AM, SuperPicks (29.17) wrote:

Alstry, I am one of your biggest fans, I love reading your blogs as they keep me up to date on certain news many a time.

BUT, if you could be kind & courteous enough to keep from spamming the "Most Recommended Blog Posts" for the day, it would be a great service to those who want updates on the CAPs community.  to be fair, this was asked of others (ie such as goodvibe4ever, etc) who did relent & agree to stop spamming the area (thank god).

There's 5 slots on the most recommended for teh day, and today, you have filled 3/5 of them.  This limits the voices I hear and is kind of like limiting distribution of thought (ie public only exposed to mainstreat media) - it works both ways!

I am against censorship or limitations on expressing oneself, but please try to knock down the blog count to 1-2 blog posts in a 24hr period,  if u limit it to 2/day, you can still go a long ways with 700 posts per year. 

My apologies for spamming this comment 3x today, I would just hope you get a chance to read atleast one of these. 

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