performance - Week Ending 09/13/2013
I mentioned last week that economic numbers are subject to change. I provided some examples of just how dramatic some of those changes can be, and I noted the markets took a minute, then took a leak, and then went on with the business of greed.
In the week ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, will meet to decide if interest rates should stay the same, as well as to decide what is going to happen to the money supply. Of course the markets are really only interest in the money supply as it relates to the dreaded taper.
Here’s the deal. The Fed can control the money supply by buying and selling government securities. If they want to decrease the money supply the Fed will sell, and if they want to increase the money supply, they will buy. For one helluva long time the Fed has been buying.
Last week I also talked about payroll numbers and the downward revision that came out for the prior month. To my view that was a big deal because it indicated to me that the underlying economy was still sputtering at best.
The Fed is now between a rock and hard place. They are very aware of the downward revision in the payroll numbers, just as they are very aware of labor force participation rate, which has now reached it’s lowest level in 33 years.
But they are also aware that they need to put a positive foot forward to show the rest of the world that the United States economy is resilient and strong. Something I think is utter underwear slime.
Regardless, I think the “taper” is upon us, so I personally am looking for the markets to hand individual investors a hot cherry bend over next week, which is a more mtactful way of saying individual investors are about to take it up the old wahzoo…again.
Where’s Mr. Whipple and his role of Charmin when you need him? But that’s what happens to individual investors, we take it in the shorts every time the economic winds change direction.
For those individual investors that subscribe to The Clean End Only, which is any macro economic based investing newsletter, expect to read the words “sell signal” and “confirmed” quite a bit.
And if you follow the advise provided in those newsletters, expect to watch the value of your portfolio fall like a loaf from a tall horse during a long a parade.
Is that what is going to happen? I have no idea. And as I have said on these pages many, many times, I really don’t care.
Hi. My name is Wax, and I am an individual investor, a working class investor, just trying to do the best I can in a world that was never intended for investors like me.
Throughout the course of the week, I post a Daily Alert, which is my review of an individual equity. It is intended to help the reader decide if that particular equity is worth their time to research.
The other thing I do, is let the world watch as I manage the The Wax Ink Portfolio.
Perhaps watching me make the mistakes I make will help other working class investors avoid the investing pitfalls that seem to find me.
Enjoy your weekend
The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 2.6% for the week. By comparison, the Dow was up 3.0%, the Nasdaq was up 1.7%, the S&P 500 was up 2.0%, the Russell 2000 was up 2.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 10.7%.
Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is up 22.5%, the Dow is up 17.3%, the Nasdaq is up 23.3%, the S&P 500 is up 18.3%, the Russell 2000 is up 24.1%, and the VIX is down 7.1%.
The Wax Ink Portfolio breakdown remains unchanged with roughly 70% of the portfolio in equities, 30% of the portfolio in cash, and 0% of the portfolio in bonds.
I finished baseline equity reviews on the following companies during the course of the week. My rating follows the ticker symbol.
Cubic Corporation. (NYSE: CUB) – No Investment Interest
CTS Corporation (NYSE: CTS) – Positive Investment Interest
DeVry, Inc. (NYSE: DV) – No Investment Interest
Dynamics Research Corporation (Nasdaq: DRCO) – Negative Investment Interest
This week's moving on up stocks were small tools maker The L.S. Starrett Company (NYSE: SCX), up 8%, technical services company SAIC, Inc. (NYSE: SAI), up 7%, and government technical contractor URS Corporation (NYSE: URS) was up 6%.
This week's floaters in the bunch bowl were oil refiner Holly Frontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC), down 4%, after-market auto parts maker Dorman Products Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: DORM), down 0.5%, and cylinder maker Worthington Industries, Inc. (NYSE: wor), down 0.5%.
The top portfolio choke and puke stocks remain communications equipment company Tellabs, down 56% since being added to the portfolio, garage door and telephone headset maker Griffon Corporation, down 34% since being added to the portfolio, and iron ore company Cliffs Natural Resources, down 55% since being added to the portfolio.
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