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IBDvalueinvestin (98.35)

Perma-bears Glass floor finally Breaks on TIF, now watch these other retailers to be next



November 25, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: TIF , M , AROPQ



Larger BF Turnout Expected: NRF By Alan Wolf -- TWICE, 11/24/2009

Link to article

Washington - Some 134 million consumers are expected to shop for Black Friday bargains this weekend, up from 128 million last year, a new survey shows.

According to the poll, conducted Nov. 3-10 by BIGresearch on behalf of the National Retail Federation (NRF), 57 million people say they will definitely hit the stores this weekend, with another 77 million waiting in the wings to see what retailers are planning before heading out the door.

TVs, Laptops Top Black Friday Shopping Lists: Survey

Retailers Release Black Friday Sales Info  

"While consumers are still expected to remain cautious with their holiday spending, the anticipation of Black Friday deals seems to be coaxing shoppers out of hibernation," said Pamela Goodfellow, a senior analyst, at BIGresearch.

According to the survey, discount stores will be the biggest attraction for consumers this weekend, with 66.3 percent planning on heading to their favorite big-box store. In addition, four out of 10 (41 percent) will shop at electronics stores, while more than one-quarter (27.6 percent) will shop online.

Among those planning to brave the elements, one out of 10 shoppers (10.3 percent) will get to stores between midnight and 3:00 a.m.; more than one-quarter (28.8 percent) will check out the early-bird specials and head out between 4:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.; and 28.2 percent plan to hit the bricks between 7:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m.

More than 18 percent of the midnight-to-3:00 a.m. crew will be comprised of 18- to 34-year-olds, the survey showed.

Despite this year's relatively tepid Black Friday promotions, NRF president/CEO Tracy Mullin believed that "retailers still have a few tricks up their sleeves to excite Black Friday shoppers. With retailers fully aware that shoppers are looking for incredible deals, Americans can expect huge sales on popular items like toys, electronics and apparel."

About 8,700 consumers participated in the poll.


On November 25, 2009 at 8:22 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (95.55) wrote:

Told you yesterday shorts that have crushed retailers in the last 2-3 weeks have no clue.  TIF showing this morning that I am correct.

I said yesterday to watch these retail stocks for upside surprises.


3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 25, 2009 at 8:44 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Question, are these trades or investments in your opinion?


In otherwords are you planning to harvest some expected pop and  be out in time to spend the money on gifts this year, or do you consider this a good point to build a durable position in these names?


The range of retailers in this list is quite large, so feel free to discriminate by sub-sector (bargain retail, vs. high end, etc)

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#2) On November 25, 2009 at 9:01 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.35) wrote:

JCP,TGT,WMT,M, ARO considered bargin retailers, especially ARO (In ARO you have a bargain retailer which is also hip with teens, usually thats a hard combination to find.) Longterm holds, USA economy will only get bigger with population growth steady.

JWN, TIF, AEO, & GES,  I consider Higher end retailers. These stocks swing with the stock market because when the market soars the rich feel richer and go on a buying spree.


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#3) On November 25, 2009 at 9:38 AM, russiangambit (28.67) wrote:

IBD, may be you should go back and re-read your posts from January-February, where you were saying that shorting was so easy a, a child could do it.

You have no conviction one way or the other, so what is up with attacks on the perma-bears?

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