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Peter Schiff - Flying Blind

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September 01, 2010 – Comments (2)

Watching economists and media analysts react to breaking economic news is a bit like looking at a flock of pigeons flying over the New York skyline. A true wonder of the urban landscape, the flocks can include hundreds of individuals who show an uncanny ability to stay in tight formation as the group quickly zig-zags between buildings. What may be even more remarkable than their ability to randomly fly while maintaining cohesion is the flock’s refusal to stick to any particular direction for very long, and their determination to fly feverishly without actually going anywhere. Sound familiar?

Today's weak GDP numbers have finally caused the mass of economists to revise downward their formerly optimistic recovery forecasts, with many finally entertaining the possibility of a "double dip" recession. It should be obvious by now that these economists only have the capacity to describe where the economy is moving in the short-term...they have no ability to explain the reasons behind the macro trends or make predictions that go beyond the next data release. But economics is not dart throwing. It can be understood and properly forecast.

The major mental block is that most economists believe that an economy grows as a result of spending. Any policy that encourages spending and discourages savings and investment is considered beneficial. Unfortunately, these policies, which only succeed in growing debt and government, act more as an economic sedative than a stimulant.

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2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 01, 2010 at 10:38 AM, kdakota630 (29.66) wrote:

Also, Peter from CNBC last night:

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#2) On September 01, 2010 at 9:28 PM, ralphmachio (24.69) wrote:

Nothing like the reaction of a true believer in the presence of a little truth, "Not in my lifetime", what an imbecile (in reference to the guy on fast money)

But what's with those who vehemently support whatever stupid monetary policy the FED comes up with, and no matter what, feel like those above (FED, GOV't, etc) him are trustworthy. Hardcore sheep like him should have to be paid to speak with such fervor, because in reality, they should not exist.

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