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Peter Schiff is WRONG!



October 09, 2009 – Comments (6)

For all you followers of Peter Schiff - I can tell you unequivocally that he is wrong.  Mr. Schiff continues to fail to take into account market psychology.  Yes, Schiff is totally right when he speaks about the fundamentals, but a person who does not invest ALSO with psychology will be left out on the lurch.

For example - Schiff argued for inflation in 2008.  Normally, based on huge amounts of a fiat currency being poured down a gaping hole, he would be right.  But like in past economic crises, he failed to realize the herd mentality that the dollar was a safe haven.  The dollar strenghtened until this past March.

Maybe "Schiff is Wrong" is incorrect - more like "Schiff is Early".  I strongly recommend staying in stocks for at least another two months.  The bubble in equities is strong and will continue to strengthen.  Schiff is right in that the economy is getting worse, but he's too early on his call.

Seriously, the FED has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy and the calls of hyper inflation have not yet occurred.  Yes, they WILL occur - and when they do YES we will suffer greatly, but why miss out on the next bubble.  Ride it while it lasts, and if you're real lucky, you'll get off just before the ride stops.

Good luck and good investing.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 09, 2009 at 8:58 AM, russiangambit (28.67) wrote:

Whether he is 100% right or not, at least, his arguments make sense wich I can't say about majority of people I hear on Bloomberg and CNBC. Majority are just repeating things that are accepted mainstream at the momen without any further critical analysis.

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#2) On October 09, 2009 at 10:21 AM, minduza (< 20) wrote:

he is investor not a trader

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#3) On October 09, 2009 at 10:43 AM, throwerw (28.28) wrote:

right, he buys foreign stocks with good dividends.  if the s&p is rising, those stocks are probably rising faster, especially when you take the weakening dollar into account.  investors following him since he called the tech bubble would have done very well.

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#4) On October 09, 2009 at 11:59 AM, Archangel123 (< 20) wrote:

Peter Schiff's track record has beenn solid. Fundamentals are the life blood of investing. To follow psychology of the market is like believing in the EASTER bunny or tooth fairy. Come on, Peter peg the market perfectly. He never said to pull completely out of the market but to invest in strong currencies and foreign stock that have greater returns. Peter is bearish, but also is bullish using investment "FUNDAMENTALS". Again, don't fall for WALL STREET boiler room tactics.

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#5) On October 09, 2009 at 12:42 PM, MadStan (< 20) wrote:

So your advice is to stand out infront of the inflation train and hope that you jump out in the nick of time? By the time the ride ends it'd be too late.

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#6) On October 09, 2009 at 6:45 PM, firstade68 (< 20) wrote:

This blog is not even worth refuting:

So you plan to jump off the "inflation train" (as MadStan put it) just in the nick of time.  Peter Schiff looks at the broad picture not fast money.  He doesn't have a crystal ball.  Whether his predictions happen tomorrow, next week, or next year is immaterial. 

The fact is it that we are headed down this road, so if you want to pick berries along the way, knock yourself out. 

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