March 16, 2009
– Comments (10)
this guy has an undeniable ability to be negative which for the time being is probably good PR for his fund.
While I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Schiff what he fails to mention is that Benny and Timmy know they are screwed and are doing the best they can to prevent a mass panic on behalf of the Chinese govt and people of the US. If they really told the truth, every grocery store in the US would be empty within 24 hours (not to mention the gun shops).
Agreed. I watched most of that interview last night but only while I was doing other stuff around the house and was thinking the exact same thing.
Thank you for posting. I try to keep up with these on the Europac website, but there are so many new blogs posted there that it is difficult to do so. Not that that is a bad thing.
Tune in to his radio show on wednesday - well worth the listen. I called in and got through on my first attempt.
He's made so much money in this recession by conning people into buying the stocks his company owns.
I think he's got some good points. I just picked up his "Crash Proof" book and am less than a fourth the way through it, but have skimmed the conclusions at the tail end of the book.
Is anyone denying that he's not got the anecdotal evidence backing up his case? If so, then how solid is their case and with what evidence?
Schiff may be profiting from this fear-mongering, but I think he's right about a lot of it. The Chinese are very worried. You think Hillary Clinton went for the tea? We're dancing with the Chinese in an "economic Pearl Harbor" to use Buffett's words... and we are losing.
Good post. One REC for you! Thanks for the find.
Oh no, what a horror video! Peter Schiff is really losing his hair... Am I next...!?
Clearly, he does not like the Fed, even though they got us out of every mess in the end.
And finally, why should the Chinese stop to lend to their best costumer, the USA? They would cut into their own flesh...
Perhaps what the Chinese are thinking is this
a) Now that most Americans are better informed as to the problem the US gov't will put more effective policies into place. Let's wait and see if they can take this money of ours and get back on track.
b) Americans will be even more pressed to bargain shop and who is the best position to provide them what they do buy (besides food) ? We are. Who's in the best position to ensure a place at the import table? The one holding the most debt. Which country that we trade with has the largest addiction to out products with the least ability or willpower to compete with us to provide them? The US.
c) If we pull out too much of our money or flood the market with US dollars then our US dollar investment will truly tank and we lose leverage in many key strategic areas. Sort of like selling out a losing stock. Do you make those losses realized or ride it out and maybe cash in later?
I believe they are posturing on the the bond issue in order to gain leverage. There are many moves they can make to strengthen their place in the world and they think many moves ahead. Look at their acquisition of commodities in Australia & elsewhere. Muting US criticism of their policies muzzles their most vocal and powerful opponent. Andt we are also a huge historic trading partner.
The next 6 months will tell the tale IMO. How much the stimulus actually helps or softens our fall will tell them how it will affect them economically and thus politically.
I look a this way. If I lend an enormous sum to a previously reliable customer to buy my goods and they fall behind in ther payments are there any scenarios where I might just extend their maturities, renegotiate their payments etc? Sure there are. Especially when that default represents a huge loss for me. Large enough to potentially really cripple me. Even more so if that debtor has influence in circles we share. I break their kneecaps over money and what do my others allies and debtors think?. What if this debtor is involved in other investments with me or can trade influence?
Abookie might break your fingers but if he knows the jockey in an upcoming race is your brother he might just cut you another deal altogether. Schiff does not consider this in his thinking that I have seen (or read)
To me they don't have much choice in a an economic sense. In fact I would go so far as to say that's it's possible that China saw this coming and actually planned to be in this very position. What a hammer they hold over our heads! What I think we'll see is China escalating in political arenas over issues we have traditionally been critics of. For example they have 'territorial disputes" with every single one of their "neighbors" (over provinces, islands etc). Also we were one of the most vocal & powerful critics about their human rights agenda (& had credibility up til Oh about 2 years ago) which has kept them out of some of the seats at the Big Boy tables of influence. I think they will consider the chance to capture this real estate and influence as a worthy gamble paying of quite handsomely.
This my main critic of Schiff. He boils everything down to economics and thus oversimplifies complex issues. If China were run purely by accountants we'd be truly in the soup. But China is also about becoming the next superpower and has a far more intricate agenda than Schiff suggests. I'm certainly no expert but my take is that they simply have far more to gain from cooperating with us (for the near term) and are going to pick their battles. Think the game "Go" a game of stategy played all over the board where no one piece decides the game.
I think the Chinese are just fine and thinking quite a few moves ahead here. To their timetable "near term" can be years and they do not need to protect one piece (trade deficits) to the win the game (world's premier superpower).
Great post as always from the unofficial Schiff Chanel here on Caps :)
I'm a fan of Schiff, but Alex, your comment is very good, makes you think. But the problem is that Chinese government already speaks out loudly about their concern regarding US debt, that should make us worried too.
Very good reply, Alex.
China definitely has the U.S. in an unenviable position, and they both know it. Both have a lot to lose, but the U.S. has more to lose.
No matter what happens, you can be sure that China won't give up their position of strength, and if they dump their U.S. dollars, you can be sure that if/when that happens, they'll be well prepared for it.