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alstry (35.03)

Please Drink the Kool-Aid????? Pretty Please?????

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March 05, 2009 – Comments (26)

It is pretty amazing the nonsense being spewed out there.  Technical Analysts saying we are due for a rebound as the market crashes 1000 points?  Heck if we fall another 6000 there may be no more room for them to be wrong.

Most of these amatuers have never run a business of their own....they have been employees their whole life and couldn't intelligently reconcile a balance sheet and income statement if it was presented to them by an accountant.....yet they have the gall to call a bottom?  Pretty incredible and a sign of the times.

Alstrynomics Techno Trance Analysis is still in its infancy but is well on its way to making two of the most amazing calls in the history of the market....within weeks of each other.   But due to the lack of long term prognostication and interpretation, application to real life behavior should be used with great hesitancy.

The spector vector was inverted by the reflector and now the accellerator injector is about to take this baby through any support floors.  However, you must never forget that a new reflector formation could develop reversing any high velocity spector run down.

Sometimes its hard not to laugh at some of the stuff blogged on Motley Fool......I know, Alstry will be nice.  I hope none of you are relying on this crap and investing real money based on it.  During times like this, the prudent investor is sitting on a pile of cash.  The bigger the better.

Do you seriously think a bunch of English Majors could really stand a chance against Alstry????  In the end the game is played on the field, the blogging is us trying to help each other get through it.  I have said my peace over and over and over again for the past year.  Hopefully, a few of you heeded my advice and went to cash.  If you shorted, you should be looking pretty good right now....but as I have warned in the past, shorting is a VERY HIGH RISK game and should be attempted by only those with a high risk tolerance and a strong understanding of the game.

At the beginning, I lost millions of dollars personally shorting.  Then  I finally learned.  IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS AND THE MARKET, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS EVEN PLAYING THE GAME.  It cost me millions to learn.  But now I think I have at least a fighting chance to make it all back and more.

My days on CAPS are numbered.  I did my best to warn you what was coming.  I was ridiculed by many of the TMF bloggers.  Hopefully, some of you learned a thing or two and are wiser for the time spent.  I know a bunch of you have taught me a lot.  THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!

Please be careful.  There are a lot of people on CAPS that get a lot of recommendations who really only lead you to erroneous and dangerous conclusions.   But that is a good lesson for the market because there are a lot of popular  stocks that are terrible businesses but the hype makes it easy to suck you in to play them.

I intentionally made Alstry ascerbic.  I didn't want him to be likable because I only wanted him to be judged on the objective accuracy of his blogging and CAPS picks.  It is the same way you should invest in a company.  Not on popularity but on objective business performance. 

My days are likely numbered on CAPS....let's hope your personal investment portfolio isn't!!!!!

PS:  Remember there were those saying Alstry was all hat and no cattle?????  Now let's take a look at those idiots standing naked in the ocean as the tide pulls out.  Remember, when you are sitting at the poker table and you are not sure who is the patsy.....it is time to get up and leave right away.

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 05, 2009 at 3:48 PM, FishSRQ (27.31) wrote:

Fine I'll tap out, but I'm still gonna hate you. (respectfully of course)

 

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#2) On March 05, 2009 at 3:50 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

If you hate me but I save your life.....I feel good at the end of the day.  It is all about Alstry in the end.

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#3) On March 05, 2009 at 4:00 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Young Chuck moved to  Texas  and bought a donkey from a farmer for $100.00.  The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day.  
   
The next day he drove up and said, "Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died."
 
Chuck  replied, "Well, then just give me my money back."  

The farmer said, "Can't do that.  I went and spent it already."  

Chuck  said, "OK, then, just bring me the dead donkey."  

The farmer asked, "What ya gonna do with him?"  

Chuck said, "I'm going to raffle him off."  

The farmer said, "You can't raffle off a dead donkey!"  

Chuck said, "Sure I can.  Watch me.  I just won't tell anybody he's dead."

A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, "What happened with that dead donkey?"  

Chuck said, "I raffled him off.  I sold 500 tickets at two dollars apiece and made a profit of $898.00."  

The farmer said, "Didn't anyone complain?"  

Chuck said, "Just the guy who won.  So I gave him his two dollars back."

Chuck now works for Wall Street.

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#4) On March 05, 2009 at 4:05 PM, StKitt (30.39) wrote:

A job well done, sir.

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#5) On March 05, 2009 at 4:17 PM, StKitt (30.39) wrote:

Too funny!

I first heard the dead donkey raffle joke on a Justin Wilson comedy LP back in 1971!

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#6) On March 05, 2009 at 4:18 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

I think I heard it a few times as well...but it got eMailed to me today by a good friend and gave me a good laugh...again.

Its fun laughing again and again.

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#7) On March 05, 2009 at 4:37 PM, carcassgrinder (34.46) wrote:

Alstry....

If your days are numbered...where might we be able to pursue our education in Alstrynomics?

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#8) On March 05, 2009 at 4:49 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

"However, you must never forget that a new reflector formation could develop reversing any high velocity spector run down."

Alstry.. Mark my words... DOW 6250 is going to be a tough floor to break through and I bet we get another extremely short lived Bear Bounce before plowing through to DOW 5000.

I think tomorrow = D-DAY where CHAOS will ensue.

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#9) On March 05, 2009 at 4:50 PM, Varchild2008 (84.64) wrote:

"However, you must never forget that a new reflector formation could develop reversing any high velocity spector run down."

Alstry.. Mark my words... DOW 6250 is going to be a tough floor to break through and I bet we get another extremely short lived Bear Bounce before plowing through to DOW 5000.

I think tomorrow = D-DAY where CHAOS will ensue.

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#10) On March 05, 2009 at 5:03 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Carcass,

That is a good question.  The world is rapidly adopting my perspective and I really don't like being in crowds.  The money is made when you are alone and the world comes to you.

Right now I am looking at starting a novel coffee idea and a service based business along the lines of Hooters.  It is time to inject a little postive energy into my professional life and maybe hanging around a lot of beautiful young women just might do the trick....but my wife will never be too far off my mind.

Alstry has been an amazing social experiment on a lot of levels.  His presence has also made me a much better trader and something that I now enjoy.

My competitive advantage is that I honestly think I am one of the best fundemental analysts in the country.  I doubt I will ever stray too far from that.....even if the spector vectors start wreaking havoc.

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#11) On March 05, 2009 at 5:15 PM, njbrown113 (< 20) wrote:

Well as much as I cant stand your negativety, your right 99.9% of the time, and I admire you for that, actually its quite amazing how accurate you are on most of the subjects you call. Ill stand by my word on how damn negative you are, but what can I say, your right all the time. Job well done. I hope you stay on CAPS cause I don't know who I will get upset with anymore. Once again, good job.

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#12) On March 05, 2009 at 5:27 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Mr.Brown,

I wish I could turn positive right now...but I would be dishonest with myself and you.  Hence I am now looking at starting a few different business concepts privately...maybe with a few partners whom I respect.

I have no doubt that I will turn postive one day for the general economy....my guess it will be sooner than most CAPs members as they are just now entering reality.

Whatever your path in life I wish you well.  Alstry played a role on CAPs... and as I reflect back ....I am proud and can say a job well done.

There were few areas in the main stream press, or even MF for that matter, that you received a similar perspective.  In the end, I really didn't care whether you liked Alstry or not...the ONLY thing I cared about was whether the information was sound and the analysis was the best I could offer.

My score speaks for itself and much better than any boasting could achieve with words.  My whole life I have had a knack for solving problems...this was no different.

Some point within the next few years, I am confident this will come to an end....at that point, I think I am going to feel like an undersexed teenager at a playboy party....I can't wait.

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#13) On March 05, 2009 at 5:33 PM, nihilkillsmemore (20.97) wrote:

"IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS AND THE MARKET, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS EVEN PLAYING THE GAME"

hi alstry and thanks for your posting, but can you elaborate the interplay between cds's and the market

 

thank you 

 

 

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#14) On March 05, 2009 at 5:47 PM, njbrown113 (< 20) wrote:

ALSTRY

Thanks for wishing me well, so are you saying your leaving CAPS for good, I sure hope not. If so, why are you leaving? I am getting really down all of a sudden, your presence on here is a must, it just wont be the same if your gone. Well in the event that you do leave, I wish you well, not that you probably need it, sounds like your one of the few who actually saw this coming and prepared for it. Anywho, good luck to you my fellow fool, and hope to see you around.

Nathan J. Brown

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#15) On March 05, 2009 at 6:03 PM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

I am leaving because my role on CAPS has passed.  My role was to WARN of the pending crisis while everyone was telling you things were just fine.  Now, everything I read is like an Alstry post.  Not very challenging is it???????

If CAPs is still around, I will come back when its time to be postitive.  No doubt I will be accused of serving Kool Aid..but I can take it.

I will stick around until I get rated 100.  That was my goal and I intend on achieving it.

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#16) On March 05, 2009 at 7:19 PM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

alstry,

i was hoping to read more of your blogs in the coming time! if that time were to come when you are leaving CAPS, what do you think one would have to do to be able to analyze at your level? any recommended readings? 

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#17) On March 05, 2009 at 7:50 PM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Alstry-

 Right this minute if I had a choice to have a cold beer with anyone of my choosing it would hands down be you partner.  Ever visited the Texas Hill Country?  Life is so good here!

"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." —Samuel Adams

 

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#18) On March 05, 2009 at 8:08 PM, Option1307 (29.90) wrote:

I'm gonna be honest, I don't think many Fools thought you'd actually break the top 10. Good work...

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#19) On March 05, 2009 at 8:13 PM, Lenokis (21.61) wrote:

I'll be looking for your return...

We will now go into a deflationary period for ?? and !!!

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#20) On March 05, 2009 at 9:03 PM, Seano67 (41.26) wrote:

Alstry, I would be sad to see you go. I think you are very entertaining, and of course you have been largely predictive of this entire thing the whole way along. I looked at some of your OLD blogs, like from a year ago onward, and you were sounding the alarm bell and providing supporting evidence to support that viewpoint way back then- which, I don't know, but to me seems pretty dang impressive.

I had absolutely no idea things could have been heading toward this degree of meltdown, just utterly clueless. I wasn't aware that the housing bubble was about to collapse, leading to the sub-prime debacle, leading to the failure of some of our largest financial institutions, and on and on and on. I think a lot of people just got caught by surprise like that, because when times are good, who wants to think about the bad? Some things are just difficult to bring yourself to contemplate, so it's easier to simply enjoy the good times and try not to stress the possible bad. Easier, but much less profitable. I got killed in this collapse. I'm down almost 50% since it started. Not that I'm crying about it, but I can't help but wish I'd been a little bit more aware of what was going on. 

Anyway, if you do go- you should at least wait till you hit 100.00, and then just close out all your picks at once. Go out on top and with a bang. :)

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#21) On March 05, 2009 at 11:10 PM, VIS46 (28.87) wrote:

Alstry,

Thanks for your advice. I went 100% cash on your advice on your blogs.I did enter with the TA crowd with 10% of my money.Made some money.Now I am loosing.I might just close and might buy someTreasury bond funds.

Vis

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#22) On March 05, 2009 at 11:10 PM, VIS46 (28.87) wrote:

Alstry,

Thanks for your advice. I went 100% cash on your advice on your blogs.I did enter with the TA crowd with 10% of my money.Made some money.Now I am loosing.I might just close and might buy someTreasury bond funds.

Vis

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#23) On March 06, 2009 at 8:41 AM, TMFJake (76.05) wrote:

Make it a tea shop, not a coffee shop. 

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#24) On March 06, 2009 at 9:01 AM, Xciteddon (68.65) wrote:

I think you will be sorly missed. Even though you tend to be on the negative you have to understand that you balance what you touch. You make people think! I know you probably don't think so but you do. You have made me think and remember that I have to take everything with a grain of salt. I hope you will reconsider your decision and stay. I think you have a lot to contribute, but you need to do it in a less harsh mannor. Thank you for being you!

Dee

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#25) On March 06, 2009 at 9:24 AM, alstry (35.03) wrote:

Actually, the retail operation has nothing to do with coffee.  The coffee idea was more about packaging and marketing.

Once I finalize the retail/service concept.....I think it actually might make some headlines....but right now it is still in the development phase.

Xcite,

I am purposefully not nice....just right and play by a strong internal character foundation. 

How many nice CEO's do you think have taken shareholders to the cleaners??  Some jerks as well.  CAPs players need to learn to distinguish competence from nonsense.  Through a lot of pain and experience, I think I have a pretty good foundation.  Hopefully, the Alstry experiment moved you forward a bit.

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#26) On March 06, 2009 at 3:59 PM, spacelaw (< 20) wrote:

I have followed your blog for some time and became especially intrigued with the Spector Vector.  As I followed your application of the Spector Vector I quickly determined that what you term the Spector Vector is nothing more than a complex algorithm you have created to predict outcomes based on the input of a variety of data points.   My curiosity drove me to try to “break the code” of your algorithm using deconstructive quantum analytics (essentially reverse engineering your algorithm).  As you can imagine this was no small task given the vast number of data points you have inputted and the variety of outcomes your algorithm has predicted.   I used my access to one of the world’s most powerful computer arrays to assist me.   This array provided the equivalent of more than 1.5 petaflop/s of speed.  As you undoubtedly know, but some of your less computer savvy readers may not, one petaflop/s represents one quadrillion floating point operations per second.  After spending 3 sleepless nights (the only time I could get on the computer array) I was able to derive your algorithm.  Although in testing your algorithm I observed some minor theoretical flaws, I’m very impressed with its elegance and its potential for applications well beyond the realm of technical market analysis.   

Indeed I became so enthralled with the Spector Vector algorithm that I attempted to apply it to a field I’m more familiar with--quantum theory.  To say my results have been astounding would be an understatement.  I focused on an issue that has been confounding astrophysicists for some time.  That is, how do you predict the point in time and space that the universe stops expanding and begins to contract?   In recognition of your technical analysis brethren, I shall call this the point of intergalactic capitulation.   I don’t want to divulge my results until they are peer reviewed and my paper is accepted for publication, but here is a hint: The end of the world is in fact coming, but not for a very long time.  I would like to give credit to you when I present the my paper, which I hope to do at a conference in Europe this summer.  Unfortunately for now I can only identify you by your blog nome du plume, so I have tentatively titled my paper “Alstry’s Spector Vector and the Theory of Intergalactic Capitulation.”    If you have any objection to my reference to the name Alstry, please alert me right away. 

P.S. I applied the Spector Vector algorithm to current market data points and it shows that market capitulation will not occur until the Dow reaches 2,274, but I’m sure you already knew this.

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