Politics-The Grey Swans of 2017
I have been trying to figure out if we are in a Bull Market, which is temporarily slowing down, or in a Bear Market which is getting ready to "start growling"
It is almost as if "investors" are in a "semi-frozen" state, waiting for something to happen before making any meaningful moves.
While "Grey Swan" events are not "Black Swans", enough of them, placed on top of one another, can make the grey turn to black.
The main difference between a "Grey Swan" event, and a "Black Swan"event, is that you can spot the "Grey Swans" forming and be prepared for them.
The uncertainity holding the markets hostage at this time, and for the near term future, is the elections which have recently taken place, such as in the U.S., and the U.K., and the ones coming up soon, or are left over from past events, such at the French elections, the German elections, and a little further out, the Spanish elections.
We also have the "Greek Problem" trying to rear its head again, though it seems a little less scary now then it used to be.
We also have Scotland, trying again to get a referencum on splitting off from the U.K., and other events such as Bulgaria, the Ukraine, and Syria.
I expect that as "investors" wait to see how things play out, we will continue to sort of vascilate in a fairly narrow range, with some up days, but probably even more down days.
The trouble with "investors" standing still, is that if you are walking up a "down escolator", you will be taken back to the bottom. To stay in place, you have to keep taking some upward steps to compensate for the downward movement of the stairs.
It is getting very hard to pick stocks worth investing in based on fundamentals, because the "Bears" are able to exert a more exagerated force in a market that is mostly standing still, than one which is powered by optimism.
I have almost gotten to the point that I need to become a "short term trader", rather than an "investor"
These are just a few of the things that have been on my mind lately, and I would appreciate any other thoughts, in agreement, or disagreement, as long as they are civil and at least semi constructive.
Good luck to all and hope to see you on the other side.
This is JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.