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Teacherman1 (< 20)

Politics-The Grey Swans of 2017



April 13, 2017 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: CYTX , GERN , OCRX

I have been trying to figure out if we are in a Bull Market, which is temporarily slowing down, or in a Bear Market which is getting ready to "start growling"

It is almost as if "investors" are in a "semi-frozen" state, waiting for something to happen before making any meaningful moves.

While "Grey Swan" events are not "Black Swans", enough of them, placed on top of one another, can make the grey turn to black.

The main difference between a "Grey Swan" event, and a "Black Swan"event, is that you can spot the "Grey Swans" forming and be prepared for them.

The uncertainity holding the markets hostage at this time, and for the near term future, is the elections which have recently taken place, such as in the U.S., and the U.K., and the ones coming up soon, or are left over from past events, such at the French elections, the German elections, and a little further out, the Spanish elections.

We also have the "Greek Problem" trying to rear its head again, though it seems a little less scary now then it used to be.

We also have Scotland, trying again to get a referencum on splitting off from the U.K., and other events such as Bulgaria, the Ukraine, and Syria.

I expect that as "investors" wait to see how things play out, we will continue to sort of vascilate in a fairly narrow range, with some up days, but probably even more down days.

The trouble with "investors" standing still, is that if you are walking up a "down escolator", you will be taken back to the bottom. To stay in place, you have to keep taking some upward steps to compensate for the downward movement of the stairs.

It is getting very hard to pick stocks worth investing in based on fundamentals, because the "Bears" are able to exert a more exagerated force in a market that is mostly standing still, than one which is powered by optimism.

I have almost gotten to the point that I need to become a "short term trader", rather than an "investor"

These are just a few of the things that have been on my mind lately, and I would appreciate any other thoughts, in agreement, or disagreement, as long as they are civil and at least semi constructive.

Good luck to all and hope to see you on the other side.

This is JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.  



2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 13, 2017 at 12:55 PM, CMFHuibs (72.98) wrote:

I think your 'grey swans' are valid, but the 800 pound gorilla in the room would be, and there are three:

 1) the Korean Peninsula, with the US and China preparing for military action.

 2) the ongoing civil war in Syria, dragging two superpowers into a proxy war.

 3) FBI investigations into the Russian influence on our government.  Now 3 present and former Trump associates under FISA investigations from as early as last June, it's pretty clear the Trump organization was working with the Russians for their benifit.

 Take your pick, or all three, the market would not reat well to any of them coming to fruition, but because we have three 800 pound gorillas in the room, the likelihood of one of them occurring vastly increases. 

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#2) On April 18, 2017 at 1:25 PM, Teacherman1 (< 20) wrote:

After looking at this post again, I think I failed to make my main point, which was trying to think through why the market is currently acting the way that it is.

I don't think that the "bull market" is ready to crater and turn into a "bear trap", but it does seem that the "Bears" are having a fairly easy time moving whatever they want, whcihever direction they want, without any real resistance from any major "Bulls".

The actual econimic data is much more positive than the market swings would indicate, so while I don't think there is going to be a "bear rout", for the time being the bulls do seem to be in a holding pattern, waiting for certain events to play out (and I'm not talking about Korea or Syria).

We shall wait to see how it goes and mostly wait and watch, but it can get a little frustrating to see share volumes and prices acting like they are.

Good luck to all actual investors, who are trying to make rational, realistic decisions, who keep running into unexpected walls.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.  

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