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topsecret09 (36.21)

Politics trump earnings next week

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January 17, 2010 – Comments (10)

 If Scott Brown wins the Senate seat In Masaschutetts,all bets are off for healthcare reform. The Obama agenda would be all but dead,and health care stocks could rocket higher. I will predict that he WILL WIN,and that It will change the entite dynamic of the equities markets.... TS       

Earnings season may be in full swing, but company numbers aren’t the biggest potential catalyst next week. That honor goes to the Massachusetts Senate race, once thought to be a lock for Democrat Martha Coakley but now a legitimate tossup between her and Republican Scott Brown.

“A Brown win would be devastating for the president’s agenda,” Cramer said, “particularly on health-care reform.”   http://www.cnbc.com/id/34880003         

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 17, 2010 at 12:31 PM, topsecret09 (36.21) wrote:

 I will predict that he WILL WIN,and It will change the ENTIRE dynamic of the equities markets........     ts

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#2) On January 17, 2010 at 12:37 PM, Teacherman1 (57.57) wrote:

If the "dump Dodd" strategy doesn't work, there could be another surprise.

Have a great Sunday.

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#3) On January 17, 2010 at 12:43 PM, fmahnke (89.05) wrote:

I think Cramer is completely wrong about health care stocks.  They are now near 52 wk highs after the public option died. If Brown wins, they will be looking at losing the 30 mil new customers the market has priced in..  I agree the market is helped by a Brown victory, but I say that it hurts health care stocks

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#4) On January 17, 2010 at 1:07 PM, starbucks4ever (97.71) wrote:

The reform looks more or less inescapable now. The Dems can simply hold the final vote before another Republican has a chance to spoil the party. Having said that, IF the "reform" fails in the Senate, and I wish it did fail, healthcare stocks will go DOWN. Where else can the go if the largest transfer of wealth from the public to the HMO industry, already fully baked in stock prices, fails to gather the necessary 60 votes?

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#5) On January 17, 2010 at 2:19 PM, devoish (98.66) wrote:

I'm with zloj. I think if healthcare fails the insurer lose customers, earnings and the socially acceptable ability to dump non payers onto Gov.

Thats why I also think if a Republican wins Mass, the dem's get 60 votes on reform anyway. Or find some way to pass it without the 60th vote.

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#6) On January 17, 2010 at 6:16 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

 Campaign signs on a 30 mile small town road trip this weekend. 

Scott Brown campaign signs = 37

Martha Coakley campaign signs = 2

Something sure stirred up Democratic Massachusetts.  Coakley didn't even wake up until about 2 weeks ago expecting a lock. Forcing Former President Clinton and President Obama to see enjoy the Massachuetts weather this week!

One of the side, embarassing issues if Scott Brown wins is that the Federal Healthcare program was modeled after Massachusetts in many respects. What does it say if/when Massachusetts citizens are sending a cancelling vote to Washington, outside of normal party lines!  :)

It might be interesting to make a list of those healthcare companies that surged on the recent Senate concensus on health care.  If the market is already having a bad day Wednesday morning when the results hit, then it could get another notch down. 

 

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#7) On January 17, 2010 at 11:01 PM, uclayoda87 (29.16) wrote:

The health care bill is now just a document that President Obama needs to sign to support his claim that he has begun the work of health care reform.  Unfortunately, the complexity of the document and the questionable legality of special provisions for the unions and certain states are likely to result in confusion and litigation.  I suspect that there are more than a few Democrats who secretly wish that Scott Brown win the Senate seat so that they can quietly walk away from this bill and begin their own efforts to retain their own employment.  Pushing this bill through in the face of falling public support during an election year is priceless for Republican strategists.

 

I think it is wise for investors to be very cautious and hedge their bets given that political victories tend to be victories for the oligarchy and not for the people that they were sworn to represent.

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#8) On January 17, 2010 at 11:45 PM, devoish (98.66) wrote:

uclayoda - The special provisions for Sen Nelson have been dropped.

And I doubt any Dems prefer to start the last ten years over again. It's not like they don't what happened.

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#9) On January 18, 2010 at 12:46 PM, topsecret09 (36.21) wrote:

  Rothenberg political report predicts Brown will win In Massachutsetts....  TS   

As the candidates waded through their last full day of campaigning and national Democrats tried to deal with their jitters over the stakes, the prestigious Rothenberg Political Report this morning predicted a Republican upset in the closely watched Senate race in Massachusetts.

Republican Scott Brown will likely defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in Tuesday’s special election to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, the report said.

“The combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race,"  according to the analysis.     http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dcnow/2010/01/rothenberg-predicts-gop-win-in-massachusetts.html

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#10) On January 19, 2010 at 12:08 PM, topsecret09 (36.21) wrote:

 Managed care stocks surge before Massechusetts special election......      "The Obama agenda would be all but dead,and health care stocks could rocket higher"....  Imagine that.... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704561004575013001752582676.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines  TS

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