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portefeuille (99.66)

portefeuille

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February 09, 2010 – Comments (9)

analysts on Aixtron (AIXG).

02/08/10 HSBC, initiates with "overweight", 28.00 EUR.
02/05/10 Lazard Capital initiates with "buy", 65.00 USD.
02/04/10 Merriman Curhan Ford, "buy" -> "neutral", eps09e 0.37 EUR -> 0.46 EUR, eps10e 0.85 EUR -> 1.05 EUR.
02/04/10 LB Baden-Württemberg, still "sell", still 18.00 EUR.
02/04/10 Independent Research, "hold" -> "buy", 26.00 EUR -> 28.50 EUR, eps10e 0.48 EUR -> 0.66 EUR, eps11e 0.55 EUR -> 0.80 EUR.
02/04/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, "still buy".
02/03/10 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 19.00 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
02/03/10 equinet, still "buy".
01/13/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", still 25.00 EUR.
01/11/10 J.P. Morgan, still "overweight", still 25.00 EUR.
12/22/09 AC Research, still "accumulate".
12/14/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", still 28.00 EUR.
11/11/09 WestLB, "buy" -> "add", 24.30 -> 24.00.
10/30/09 WGZ Bank, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR.

10/30/09 Exane BNP Paribas, "neutral" -> "outperform", 12.30 EUR -> 27.00.

10/30/09 Independent Research, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR, 24.00 EUR.

10/30/09 equinet, "accumulate" -> "buy", 25.00 EUR -> 24.00 EUR.

10/30/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR.

10/29/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "sell" -> "hold", eps09e 0.22 EUR -> 0.38 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.40 EUR, 9.90 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
10/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "buy".

10/29/09 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 18.40 EUR.
10/29/09 Unicredit, "hold" -> "buy", 16.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR, eps10e 0.53 EUR -> 0.72 EUR, eps11e 0.70 EUR -> 0.90 EUR.

10/29/09 SES Research, still "hold", 10.00 EUR -> 17.50 EUR.
10/29/09 equinet AG, still "accumulate", 25.00 EUR.

10/29/09 WestLB, still "buy", 24.30 EUR.
10/13/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 16.50 EUR -> 26.00 EUR.
10/12/09 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 17.80 EUR -> 24.30 EUR.

10/09/09 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "buy", rev10e 355 MEUR -> 420 MEUR, eps10e 0.48 EUR -> 0.60 EUR, rev11e 450 MEUR, eps11e 0.65 EUR.

09/30/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "sell", eps09e 0.22 EUR, still 11.00 EUR.
09/29/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 20.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.

09/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "sell".
08/18/09 WGZ Bank, "reduce" -> "accumulate", 11.50 EUR -> 14.00 EUR.

05/07/09 Unicredit, "hold" -> "buy", 4.00 EUR -> 8.00 EUR.

Aixtron closed on 02/08/09 at 20.00 EUR (Xetra).

consensus estimate is currently at around

rev09 283.76 million EUR, rev10 480.00 million EUR, rev11 million EUR 543.28,

eps09 0.39 EUR, eps10 0.77 EUR, eps11 1.00 EUR.

market capitalisation is at around 2.06 billion EUR, "net cash" expectation (end of the year) is at around

2009 -261.45 million EUR, 2010 294.51, 2011 370.00.

So Aixtron may be rather cheap if these estimates are alright.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 09, 2010 at 1:20 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

-261.45

261.45

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#2) On February 09, 2010 at 1:22 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a post on AIXG and other LED stocks is here.

some charts are here.

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#3) On February 09, 2010 at 1:34 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Preliminary Results: AIXTRON AG exceeds 2009 guidance with record revenues and profit

Veeco Announces Q4 and 2009 Financial Results

Veeco Instruments Inc.Q4 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

AIXG 9-Month Report 2009 (pdf)

 

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#4) On February 09, 2010 at 1:45 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

02/08/10 HSBC, initiates with "overweight", 28.00 EUR.
02/05/10 Lazard Capital initiates with "buy", 65.00 USD.
02/04/10 Merriman Curhan Ford, "buy" -> "neutral", eps09e 0.37 EUR -> 0.46 EUR, eps10e 0.85 EUR -> 1.05 EUR.
02/04/10 LB Baden-Württemberg, still "sell", still 18.00 EUR.
02/04/10 Independent Research, "hold" -> "buy", 26.00 EUR -> 28.50 EUR, eps10e 0.48 EUR -> 0.66 EUR, eps11e 0.55 EUR -> 0.80 EUR.
02/04/10 Hamburger Sparkasse, "still buy".
02/03/10 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 19.00 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.
02/03/10 equinet, still "buy".
01/13/10 Goldman Sachs, still "neutral", still 25.00 EUR.
01/11/10 J.P. Morgan, still "overweight", still 25.00 EUR.
12/22/09 AC Research, still "accumulate".
12/14/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", still 28.00 EUR.
11/11/09 WestLB, "buy" -> "add", 24.30 -> 24.00.
10/30/09 WGZ Bank, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR.

10/30/09 Exane BNP Paribas, "neutral" -> "outperform", 12.30 EUR -> 27.00.

10/30/09 Independent Research, still "buy", eps09e 0.24 EUR -> 0.36 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.48 EUR, 24.00 EUR.

10/30/09 equinet, "accumulate" -> "buy", 25.00 EUR -> 24.00 EUR.

10/30/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 25.00 EUR.

10/29/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "sell" -> "hold", eps09e 0.22 EUR -> 0.38 EUR, eps10e 0.30 EUR -> 0.40 EUR, 9.90 EUR -> 20.00 EUR.

10/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "buy".

10/29/09 Commerzbank, still "reduce", 18.40 EUR.

10/29/09 Unicredit, "hold" -> "buy", 16.00 EUR -> 23.00 EUR, eps10e 0.53 EUR -> 0.72 EUR, eps11e 0.70 EUR -> 0.90 EUR.

10/29/09 SES Research, still "hold", 10.00 EUR -> 17.50 EUR.

10/29/09 equinet AG, still "accumulate", 25.00 EUR.

10/29/09 WestLB, still "buy", 24.30 EUR.

10/13/09 Deutsche Bank, still "buy", 16.50 EUR -> 26.00 EUR.

10/12/09 WestLB, "add" -> "buy", 17.80 EUR -> 24.30 EUR.

10/09/09 Merriman Curhan Ford, still "buy", rev10e 355 MEUR -> 420 MEUR, eps10e 0.48 EUR -> 0.60 EUR, rev11e 450 MEUR, eps11e 0.65 EUR.

09/30/09 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "sell", eps09e 0.22 EUR, still 11.00 EUR.

09/29/09 JPMorgan, still "overweight", 20.00 EUR -> 25.00 EUR.

09/29/09 Hamburger Sparkasse, "hold" -> "sell".

08/18/09 WGZ Bank, "reduce" -> "accumulate", 11.50 EUR -> 14.00 EUR.

05/07/09 Unicredit, "hold" -> "buy", 4.00 EUR -> 8.00 EUR.

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#5) On February 09, 2010 at 1:48 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

looks better now. I just posted this to show how the analysts in the recent past tend to raise their estimates for AIXG.

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#6) On February 09, 2010 at 1:56 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Aixtron in Frankfurt trading.



enlarge

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#7) On February 09, 2010 at 2:08 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

------------------

...

The LED market is growing at extraordinary rates, and even the experts can't accurately predict demand over the next few years. New industry forecast point to LED backlighting for TVs approaching 20% penetration in 2010, which is well ahead of earlier estimates and their more aggressive forecast being published on a near daily basis.

LED backlighting is forecasted to penetrate a 100% of all notebooks and 60% of monitors by 2012. General lighting also appears to be hitting a stride particularly in regions such as China with government incentives accelerating the pace of adoption, and we expect China to be an enormous LED market, both for backlighting and for general illumination.

Within the last few weeks, there've been meaningful solid-state lighting announcements such as Samsung partnering with Acuity brands for LED lighting products, and Philips reporting that 10% of its lighting business today is from LED.

A fortune magazine article last week stated that the $100 billion global lighting industry is undergoing radical change, and by the end of the decade, LEDs will be the dominant source for commercial and residential lighting. So what does this mean for Veeco? It's hard to envision a scenario that doesn't require 400 to 500 or more MOCVD tools per year in 2010 and 2011 for backlighting applications alone, with greater capacity additions required for mass adoption of solid-state lighting.

Many in the industry estimate that the size of the MOCVD market for lighting will be more than 10 times the size of the backlighting opportunity. We continue to experience a very high level of customer quoting activity during the first quarter with a large number of customers currently evaluating the purchase of multiple systems and our new K465 gaining lots of attention in the market.

Overall trends in this business remain favorable and is positive now as they were six months ago. As we look towards the future we believe that the LED industry is at the beginning of a multi-year MOCVD tool investment cycle. Given the market demand, we see our number one priority is to ramp our manufacturing capacity to 45 or more tools this quarter to 70 tools in Q2 and to 120 tools per quarter by the end of the year.

...

------------------

(from the VECO earnings call transcript

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#8) On February 09, 2010 at 10:09 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Oil and Gas: Undervalued Stock with Major Price-Altering Catalysts Imminent

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#9) On February 10, 2010 at 11:28 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

02/09/10 Close Brothers Seydler, "hold" -> "buy", 20.00 EUR -> 26.00 EUR, eps10e 0.40 EUR -> 0.75 EUR, eps11e 0.49 EUR -> 0.93 EUR.

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