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portefeuille (98.82)




May 02, 2010 – Comments (21)

These are currently my largest holdings.

EMC call options and shares.

AB1:GR - Air Berlin

ALV:GR - Allianz

ATPG - ATP Oil & Gas


BAYN:GR - Bayer

CBK:GR - Commerzbank

DAI:GR (DAI) - Daimler

DBK:GR (DB) - Deutsche Bank

DTE:GR (DT) - Deutsche Telekom


FNTN:GR - freenet

HEI:GR - HeidelbergCement

HEN3:GR - Henkel (see this post)

IDT - IDT (see this post)

IFX:GR - Infineon

JEN:GR - Jenoptik


LHA:GR - Lufthansa

LXS:GR - Lanxess




SIE:GR (SI) - Siemens

SQNM - Sequenom

TEF:SM (TEF) - Telefónica

TKA:GR - ThyssenKrupp

EuroStoxx50 ETF


TecDax ETF

I also have a few mutual funds that I don't like all that much (I would rather have ETFs) but that I will probably keep for a few years for tax reasons (German tax laws were changed ...). They cover

India, Hong Kong, China, Russia, Brazil, Far East ex Japan, Biotech, Health Care, Mining.

I will buy next week (probably on Monday) Volkswagen ordinary shares (VOW:GR) and Aixtron (AIXG, see this post) shares and probably add a few ATPG shares. I might buy a few Cardiome shares (CRME, see this post) as well ...

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 02, 2010 at 12:50 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

estimate of my current "exposure".

Germany  40%

U.S. 25% 

Europe (including Russia) ex Germany 10%

Asia 15%

Latin America, Australia and "rest" 10%

(just a wild guess, hehe ...)

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#2) On May 02, 2010 at 12:57 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

I never had a short position or put options (except for put options on currency "crosses") and usually have a cash position of between -10% and +10% of my "long exposure".

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#3) On May 02, 2010 at 12:59 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Not surprisingly most of the shares mentioned above can be found in my list of current favourites ...

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#4) On May 02, 2010 at 1:25 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

Qiagen (QGEN) in Düsseldorf trading.

(I still think they have a decent chance of becoming a DAX30 component in a few years ...)


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#5) On May 02, 2010 at 3:49 AM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

You've got to be kidding- I'll take 5 no can have the rest - good luck

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#6) On May 02, 2010 at 5:22 AM, cashkid79 (94.00) wrote:

Courtesy of JPMorgan -- (ATPG) 


ATP’s Hub Concept is a low‐risk, cost‐effective development strategy with significant growth opportunities

Low‐risk development strategy

Hubs encourage development of neighboring projects

Staged hub development and operating control provide timing and cost flexibility

Cost effective development plan aided by infrastructure

Infrastructure assets which are long‐lived (20‐40 years) and reusable are key to Hub strategy

Application of award‐winning innovations and technologies improves economics

Ability to effectively monetize assets for added returns (ATP Innovator in March 2009, ATP Titan in active discussions, Octabuoy being financed by contractor and Chinese government program)

Future growth opportunities

Acquisition opportunities near existing hub properties

Potential third‐party revenue

Unevaluated reservoirs near hubs provide extension opportunities at superior economics


Conservative balance sheet with disciplined capital structure

Monetize assets and access the capital markets when appropriate

Establish SPV’s for major infrastructure assets

Manage leverage and liquidity

Target net debt / EBITDAX of <3.0x

Target net debt / proved reserves of <$6.00/Boe

Invest well within cash flow plus liquidity when planning capital spending

Since 2004 debt increase can be traced to investment in infrastructure resulting in development and acquisitions being funded by cash flow

Continue active / opportunistic hedging program to protect cash flow and returns

Target hedging 40‐60% of current year production

Asset Investment Status

Innovator $300mm SPV complete

Titan $684mm Currently in active discussions

Octabuoy $600mm Currently in active discussions


Are development focused company

Substantial proved reserves and infrastructure value

Significant near term production and cash flow growth

Every employee is an owner in ATP


Telemark hub development has potential to more than double production in 2010 from 2009

(course you probably know all of this I'd think)

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#7) On May 02, 2010 at 10:55 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Hi Port,

 Sorry to be annoying, but I am going to keep trying...out of your biggest postions; which 5 to 10 stocks are still attractive for attractive returns at todays price per share....or at least ones that trade in USA exchanges...THANKS!!!

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#8) On May 02, 2010 at 1:17 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#6 The research report is currently here and here.

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#9) On May 02, 2010 at 1:50 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#7 That really depends on what you already own. I am a friend of diversification (okay, and of German equities, I guess, hehe ...).

So let's assume you don't have any stocks that heavily depend on the price of oil. Then buying some ATPG shares next week is probably a good idea, especially if it "keeps going down" a bit more, unless of course the BP thing will appear more likely to have more "material" effect on ATPG than it currently does. So if the "news" (and reasonable speculation) regarding effects on oil exploration & production in the Gold of Mexico does not change by too much I would buy some shares if the price is below 19 USD or so per share.

As to single stock recommendations from the biopharmaceutical sector Qiagen appears to be somewhat safe and boring. If you really want small capitalisation biopharmaceutical exposure buy shares of at least a few companies. As usual I recommend reading what zzlangerhans has written in his blogs and "pitches", what Feuerstein writes (I sometimes disagree with his opinions on certain stocks but the information itself is usually pretty good (I think) and you get some entertainment ...) and keep maybe 1/10 of an eye on what I "do" in that sector via my lists and my "fund" trades.

For some somewhat boring exposure to data storage and cloud computing I still recommend buying some EMC shares.

I am afraid those are only 3 stocks so far and they are ones that I keep recommending so this, as I thought, will not lead to anthing I am afraid.

If I do extremely well with my "fund" for some time I might feel more comfortable delivering hot stock tips. I might, hehe ...

And I really should start writing better "pitches" and maybe something that at least comes close to somewhat original stock analysis ...

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#10) On May 02, 2010 at 3:15 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

and of German equities

They may be pretty cheap currently. Current consensus estimates of P/E ratio (KGV) and dividend yield for 2010 for the 30 components of the Dax.


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#11) On May 02, 2010 at 3:25 PM, SkywalkerFund (92.10) wrote:

Hey port,

I have a sorta off the wall question I was hoping you could help answer.

It has to do with the following 8k filing - I understand a redetermination of the borrowing base to be bad, but why would they raise capex limitation as well?    Any idea what is going on? 

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#12) On May 02, 2010 at 4:31 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#11 Sorry, no, I am not familiar with the situation. There is a post on this topic here. And ultralong wrote about the stock a few times here.

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#13) On May 02, 2010 at 5:41 PM, BlackshearFund (< 20) wrote:

Hmm which positions on your portfolio do you feel most comfortable about in terms of risk/reward?  Any conviction buys?

I would like to follow a few and see how they perform. 

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#14) On May 02, 2010 at 7:59 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

#13 I am still pretty happy with all of my larger positions.

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#15) On May 02, 2010 at 11:56 PM, cashkid79 (94.00) wrote:

yes thank you, and hurricanes, leaks, energy, imports, media, banks, cities/countries, sectors (tech), MULTI-TASKING (others) , hehe

Have a nice week .. I'm taking finals - what % of the first five factors I listed do you think will have what % influence on price fluctuations of the one mentioned :D


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#16) On May 04, 2010 at 2:36 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

port - in response to #13 and #14 -  i know you are happy with all your larger positions; but if you absolutely had to; can you please pick 5 or 7 or 10 of those if you were building a portfolio today.....pleeeeeeease.....haha....

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#17) On May 04, 2010 at 3:01 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

That really depends on your current portfolio. And I really think the post-selection should be made by the reader.

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#18) On May 04, 2010 at 9:39 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

lets just say that i have none of the stocks in your biggest position list; or if anything, have a very small % of my portfolio invested in just a couple of them....

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#19) On May 05, 2010 at 8:26 PM, cashkid79 (94.00) wrote:


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#20) On May 06, 2010 at 8:41 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

port??? - #18 PLEASE

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#21) On October 29, 2010 at 4:18 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

continued here.

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