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Teacherman1 (58.03)

Potential Growth or Pure Speculation?

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January 05, 2013 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: ENPH , IQNT , TLAB

I have looked at and have them all on my Watchlist at significantly lower start prices than they are currently selling for, but I am still having a hard time making up my mind as to whether or not they have actual future potential, or are pure speculation plays.

I am talking about telecommunication sector small caps IQNT and TLAB, and solar sector micro invertor supplier ENPH.

If I were to buy them in real life, it would be fairly small positions to start with, and at prices lower than the current ones.

I have looked at the available information and opinions and have some interest, but can't get a good fell for where I think they might be in the next year or two.

I would appreciate any thoughts, comments, opinions (hopefully backed by reasons) as to where other investors in the Motley Fool community, but especially in the CAPS community, stand concerning these companies.

I will post another blog later, or maybe just comment on this one, about why I have any interest in them at all, but would like to see how others feel.

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 05, 2013 at 12:55 PM, Teacherman1 (58.03) wrote:

"microinverter"

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#2) On January 06, 2013 at 2:09 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

Hi Teacherman,

I would have to vote pure speculation on all three, but if you know what your doing thats not always a bad thing:)

Heres an old blog about Neutral Tandem-

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/neutral-tandem-tndm-is/426840

Have a great Sunday.

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#3) On January 06, 2013 at 3:25 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

I successfully red thumbed ENPH 7 times, starting at $7.09 and ending at $3.21. My thoughts:
1. Unprofitable, -13% operating margin
2. Trading substantially above tangible book value
3. The solar industry has pretty terrible economics now and for the forseeable future, with almost all companies involved in it losing money due to oversupply and heavy competition. Suppliers to the solar industry are hurt by the same pressures as the panel manufacturers. You can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.

However I have stopped red thumbing it for now.
1. It is a growth story and seems to have some momentum
2. 2.5x TBV is a lot more reasonable than 4.5x TBV
3. Third Point is a major holder since before the IPO. I think they are smart and generally I don't want to be on the other side of their trade.

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#4) On January 06, 2013 at 3:25 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

I successfully red thumbed ENPH 7 times, starting at $7.09 and ending at $3.21. My thoughts:
1. Unprofitable, -13% operating margin
2. Trading substantially above tangible book value
3. The solar industry has pretty terrible economics now and for the forseeable future, with almost all companies involved in it losing money due to oversupply and heavy competition. Suppliers to the solar industry are hurt by the same pressures as the panel manufacturers. You can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.

However I have stopped red thumbing it for now.
1. It is a growth story and seems to have some momentum
2. 2.5x TBV is a lot more reasonable than 4.5x TBV
3. Third Point is a major holder since before the IPO. I think they are smart and generally I don't want to be on the other side of their trade.

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#5) On January 06, 2013 at 3:28 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

I've never looked at IQNT and TLAB particularly closely. Both are trading well below tangible book which is good. I would lean toward IQNT - they have a recent record of profitability and growth and analysts expect them to return to a profit. Whereas TLAB is deficient in all those areas.

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#6) On January 06, 2013 at 3:31 PM, Mega (99.96) wrote:

And yes, they are all fairly speculative in my opinion.  Do you really have any idea whether any of these companies will be profitable 5 years from now?

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#7) On January 07, 2013 at 9:59 AM, lemoneater (79.19) wrote:

Happy New Year, Teacherman!

I've avoid solar because I don't want to get burnt by a hot sector I don't understand.

Thought for the day. We all travel forward through time, but to read is to glimpse in the rearview mirror.

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#8) On January 08, 2013 at 2:40 PM, Teacherman1 (58.03) wrote:

Thank you for your comments.

Things on the "home front" have required my attention so I have not had as much time here in "Fool World" as I normally would.

I will post more detailed and meaningful comments as time allows.

Have a great week.

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#9) On January 15, 2013 at 8:03 PM, Teacherman1 (58.03) wrote:

Have been out of action for a few days.

I slipped on a dog dripped rain puddle on our tile kitchen floor and fractured 3 ribs on the 10th, and was in the hospital until Sunday evening.

I am ok, just a little sore, but happy to be home where I can actually sleep all night, instead of getting awakened every couple of hours to check my "vitals", and thereby depriving my of the most important "vital" of all: a good nights sleep.

I am going to view all three of these as "speculative", but if they get down to the right price, will buy some of each to hold, then watch to see what happens.

When I have time to look after quarterly reports, will likely post more comments.

Good luck to all as we move from the "fiscal cliff" toward the "debt mountain".

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#10) On January 15, 2013 at 8:14 PM, TMFBlacknGold (98.92) wrote:

Hope you're feeling better!

I would stay away from IQNT based on the simple fact that the company's management can't be trusted. Insiders sold all the way into the announcement of the special dividend, which essentially liquidated shareholder value and handed it to insiders. Not the kind of board I want to support with my hard earned money!

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#11) On January 16, 2013 at 10:04 AM, Teacherman1 (58.03) wrote:

TMFBlackGold

Does that name imply that you are into O & G stocks?

How about making some "Green Picks", so I can poach from you.:)

I am feeling much better, thank you.

I have questions about all three of these stocks, not just IQNT, so that is why I will need a very good entry price, and a very small position.

Thank you for your comments on IQNT, because management is a very important factor in my investing style.

I would not bet the ranch, or even a saddle blanket on any of them at this time, but I like a challenge and want to dig deeper and get a much better understanding of just where they are and where they might go.

I could lose a small amount, or I could get lucky just on market moves and day traders playing with them.

I find that I work harder if I at least have a toe in the water.

I would not recommend any of them to anyone else at this time.

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

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