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SharePlanner (< 20)

Potential Pullback In the Short-Term?

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October 13, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Here's some food for the fodder - S&P creeps outside of the upper Bollinger Band, and typically when that happens we see a pullback in the short-term. So is today's rally into unfamiliar territory a sign that we may be over extended in the very-near-term? I'm not sure, but I did hedge my portfolio, thereby reducing my long exposure from 80% down to 25%. I would love to see a pullback in the near term - which could be no more than 1-2%, and would allow me to buy some stocks on the cheap. 

Here's the chart analysis on the S&P.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 13, 2010 at 11:12 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

A 1-2% pullback would allow you to "buy some stocks on the cheap"?  Unless the dollar starts a consistent climb, I wouldn't bet on this, but I wouldn't be suprised to see SPY fall 10% here.  The rally looked overextended a month ago when SPY climbed 6% in a week.  The VIX looks set to spike here as well.  Again, we'd need to see some strength in the dollar, but I wouldn't be buying a 2% dip here.  Looking at the weekly chart, SPY looks very close to a top...it could continue to climb for another few weeks (like the climb in April that preceded the fall from $120+ to the low $100's), but I'd bet on closing the year out lower than current levels.

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#2) On October 14, 2010 at 7:54 AM, SharePlanner (< 20) wrote:

I think we might be on different time frames of trading - calling tops too is risky business, and haven't yet met anyone who made a successful business out of it. 

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#3) On October 14, 2010 at 7:54 AM, SharePlanner (< 20) wrote:

I think we might be on different time frames of trading - calling tops too is risky business, and haven't yet met anyone who made a successful business out of it. 

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